Mixing QE and Interest Rate Policies at the Effective Lower Bound: Micro Evidence from the Euro Area
Christian Bittner, Alexander Rodnyansky, Farzad Saidi, Yannick Timmer
Review of Finance,
forthcoming
Abstract
We study the interaction of expansionary rate-based monetary policy and quantitative easing, despite their concurrent implementation, by exploiting heterogeneous banks and the introduction of negative monetary-policy rates in a fragmented euro area. Quantitative easing increases credit supply less, translating into weaker employment growth, when banks’ funding costs do not decrease. Using administrative data from Germany, we uncover that among banks selling their securities, central-bank reserves remain disproportionately with high-deposit banks that are constrained due to sticky customer deposits at the zero lower bound. Affected German banks lend relatively less to firms while increasing their interbank exposure in the euro area.
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Is There an Information Channel of Monetary Policy?
Oliver Holtemöller, Alexander Kriwoluzky, Boreum Kwak
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics,
forthcoming
Abstract
Exploiting the heteroskedasticity of the changes in short-term and long-term interest rates and exchange rates around the FOMC announcement, we identify three structural monetary policy shocks. We eliminate the predictable part of the shocks and study their effects on financial variables and macro variables. The first shock resembles a conventional monetary policy shock, and the second resembles an unconventional monetary shock. The third shock leads to an increase in interest rates, stock prices, industrial production, consumer prices, and commodity prices. At the same time, the excess bond premium and uncertainty decrease, and the U.S. dollar depreciates. Therefore, this third shock combines all the characteristics of a central bank information shock.
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02.09.2026 • 24/2026
Launch of the European Real Estate Index (EREI): German housing prices continue to rise more slowly than in Europe
Growth in asking prices for German residential properties offered for sale has lagged the European EREI aggregate since spring 2025. This is shown by the new European Real Estate Index (EREI) presented today by the Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH). This novel data service hinges on more than 43 million listings on online real estate platforms and provides monthly comparisons of residential asking prices and advertised rents across 1,154 European regions in near-real-time.
Michael Koetter
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Distributional Income Effects of Banking Regulation in Europe
Melina Ludolph, Lena Tonzer, Lars Brausewetter
Journal of Corporate Finance,
Vol. 100 (July),
2026
Abstract
We study the impact of stricter and more harmonized banking regulation along the income distribution using household survey data for 25 EU countries. Exploiting country-level heterogeneity in the implementation of European Banking Union directives allows us to control for confounders and identify effects. Our results show that these regulatory reforms aimed at increasing financial system resilience affect households heterogeneously and result in a widening of the income distribution. These results are dependent on a country’s ex-ante regulatory stringency, and more pronounced in countries with stronger bank dependence. Furthermore, we find that more stringent regulation reduces income growth for low-income households primarily due to exits from employment, whereas affluent households tend to experience increased growth rates for employee and self-employed income.
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Facts or Feelings? The Role of Relatable Narratives in Shaping Inflation Expectations
Melina Ludolph, Giang Nghiem, Lena Tonzer
IWH Discussion Papers,
No. 10,
2026
Abstract
We examine whether combining factual information on inflation levels and forecasts with a narrative can persistently shape consumers’ inflation expectations. In a preregistered randomized controlled trial with a representative sample of 3,000 German consumers, participants received either numerical or textual information about inflation rates, with or without an accompanying narrative. All treatments immediately lower inflation expectations, with numerical information eliciting stronger adjustments. Adding a narrative produces no additional immediate effect, confirming that it conveys no new information. However, only the combination of numerical information with a narrative yields a lasting reduction in inflation expectations and forecast uncertainty still observable after four weeks. Our results suggest that combining precise information with a narrative enhances information retention and can lead to more persistent shifts in consumers’ beliefs. The effects are strongest when respondents perceive the narrative as relatable and emotionally engaging, and among those with low financial literacy and limited knowledge of inflation.
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01.04.2026 • 10/2026
Economic growth in East Germany slightly higher than in the West – Implications of the Joint Economic Forecast Spring 2026 and of new data for the East German economy
In 2025, the East German economy expanded by 0.4%, somewhat more than Germany as a whole (0.2%). For 2026, the Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) expects growth of 0.7% for East Germany (Germany: 0.6%). The unemployment rate is likely to amount to 7.9% in the current year, after 7.8% in 2025.
Oliver Holtemöller
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Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) – Member of the Leibniz Association
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