24.09.2026 • 28/2026
Joint Economic Forecast Autumn 2026: Recovery under structural stress – fiscal policy on slippery ground
The German economy has been recovering since the end of 2025. This recovery, although stronger than expected in spring, remains modest. The leading economic research institutes expect GDP growth of 1.3% for the current year and 1.1% and 0.4% for the following two years, respectively. Compared with the spring forecast, the outlook for 2026 has been revised upward by 0.7 and that for 2027 by 0.2 percentage points. “The economy has developed more robustly than expected. However, the recovery rests on a narrow foundation, as high energy prices and structural problems continue to weigh on economic activity,” says Oliver Holtemöller, Head of Macroeconomic Forecasting at the Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH). In the current quarter, low water levels are also temporarily dampening economic activity. The government deficit continues to increase, leading to a growing need for fiscal consolidation.
Oliver Holtemöller
Read
03.09.2026 • 25/2026
Economic Outlook: German economy on a recovery path – Tailwinds from the global economy and fiscal policy
An increase in foreign demand has put the German economy on a recovery path in the first half of the year, despite higher energy prices. In the coming quarters, rising public investment is expected to support economic activity. According to the autumn forecast of the Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), gross domestic product (GDP) is projected to grow by 1.4% this year and by 0.8% in 2027. Economic recovery in eastern Germany is expected to be somewhat weaker. In June, the IWH economists had predicted growth of 0.9% for both this and the next year.
Oliver Holtemöller
Read
Market Feedback Effect on CEO Pay: Evidence from Peers’ Say-on-Pay Voting Failures
Agnes Cheng, Iftekhar Hasan, Feng Tang, Jing Xie
Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis,
Vol. 61 (3),
2026
Abstract
This article shows that when a compensation peer firm experiences a significant failure in its say-on-pay (SOP) voting, the focal firm’s stock price is adversely affected, resulting in reduced CEO pay in the subsequent period. This pay-reduction effect is amplified when the board is more powerful, when proxy advisors express concerns about CEO pay, and when the compensation consultant lacks quality. Directors who react to the price drop and cut the CEO’s pay receive higher votes in future director elections, implying a market feedback effect for directors of the focal firm triggered by their peers’ SOP voting failure.
Read article
Monopsonistic Labour Markets
Hartmut Egger, Boris Hirsch
German Economic Review,
Vol. 26 (4),
2025
Abstract
The three articles in this special issue on “Monopsonistic Labour Markets” provide novel insights on how to model the reasons for employers’ monopsony power, how to measure it, and how much of it materialises in lower wages. We are confident that the studies published in this issue will be of high interest to specialists and a broader audience of economists alike. They definitely deserve a wide readership, and our not unwarranted hope is that they will provide new impulses to those partaking in the monopsony literature.
Read article
Policy Output
Reports › CompNet’s flagship and special reports provide in-depth, data-driven analysis on productivity, competitiveness, and related economic trends, using the latest CompNet…
See page
Research Articles
Research Articles Explore cutting-edge research based on CompNet’s micro-aggregated firm-level data and related analytical tools. These articles cover empirical and theoretical…
See page
Compnet Training Program
CompNet Training Program Structure The course is made for autonomous online learning. It is structured in three modules : Beginners, Intermediate and Advanced. Each of them…
See page
MULTIMSPROD/MULTIMSPROD AUT
MULTIMSPROD/MULTIMSPROD AUT MULTIMSPROD = Enhancing the Micro Foundation of the Research Output of National Productivity Board (NPBs). Using CompNet and Expanding its Micro Data…
See page
East Germany
The Nasty Gap 30 years after unification: Why East Germany is still 20% poorer than the West Dossier In a nutshell The East German economic convergence process is hardly…
See page
Archive
Media Response Archive 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 December 2021 IWH: Ausblick auf Wirtschaftsjahr 2022 in Sachsen mit Bezug auf IWH-Prognose zu Ostdeutschland: "Warum Sachsens…
See page
