Subsidized Vocational Training: Stepping Stone or Trap? – Assessing Empirical Effects using Matching Techniques
Eva Dettmann, Jutta Günther
Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics,
No. 4,
2013
Abstract
Using replacement matching on the basis of a statistical distance function we try to answer the question of whether subsidized vocational training is related to a negative image effect for the graduates. The results show that young people with equal qualifications acquired during subsidized vocational training are disadvantaged solely due to the kind of education they have received. The probability of finding adequate employment is lower than in the control group. Besides the 'general effect' of support we also find less favorable job opportunities for those who attended 'external' as compared to 'workplace-related' training.
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A Control Group Study of Incubators’ Impact to Promote Firm Survival
Michael Schwartz
Journal of Technology Transfer,
No. 3,
2013
Abstract
It is widely unclear as to whether start-up firms supported by publicly-initiated incubator initiatives have higher survival rates than comparable start-up firms that have not received support by such initiatives. This paper contributes to the underlying discussion by performing a large-scale matched-pairs analysis of the long-term survival of 371 incubator firms (after their graduation) from five German incubators and a control group of 371 comparable non-incubated firms. The analysis covers a 10-year time span. To account for the problem of selection bias, a non-parametric matching approach is applied to identify an appropriate control group. For neither of the five incubator locations, we find statistically significant higher survival probabilities for firms located in incubators compared to firms located outside those incubator organizations. For three incubator locations the analysis reveals statistically significant lower chances of survival for those start-ups receiving support by an incubator. The empirical results, therefore, raise some doubts regarding the impacts of incubation on long-term firm survival.
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Who Creates Jobs? Small versus Large versus Young
John Haltiwanger, Ron S. Jarmin, Javier Miranda
Review of Economics and Statistics,
No. 2,
2013
Abstract
The view that small businesses create the most jobs remains appealing to policymakers and small business advocates. Using data from the Census Bureau's Business Dynamics Statistics and Longitudinal Business Database, we explore the many issues at the core of this ongoing debate. We find that the relationship between firm size and employment growth is sensitive to these issues. However, our main finding is that once we control for firm age, there is no systematic relationship between firm size and growth. Our findings highlight the important role of business start-ups and young businesses in U.S. job creation.
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Financial Factors in Macroeconometric Models
Sebastian Giesen
Volkswirtschaft, Ökonomie, Shaker Verlag GmbH, Aachen,
2013
Abstract
The important role of credit has long been identified as a key factor for economic development (see e.g. Wicksell (1898), Keynes (1931), Fisher (1933) and Minsky (1957, 1964)). Even before the financial crisis most researchers and policy makers agreed that financial frictions play an important role for business cycles and that financial turmoils can result in severe economic downturns (see e.g. Mishkin (1978), Bernanke (1981, 1983), Diamond (1984), Calomiris (1993) and Bernanke and Gertler (1995)). However, in practice researchers and policy makers mostly used simplified models for forecasting and simulation purposes. They often neglected the impact of financial frictions and emphasized other non financial market frictions when analyzing business cycle fluctuations (prominent exceptions include Kiyotaki and Moore (1997), Bernanke, Gertler, and Gilchrist (1999) and Christiano, Motto, and Rostagno (2010)). This has been due to the fact that most economic downturns did not seem to be closely related to financial market failures (see Eichenbaum (2011)). The outbreak of the subprime crises ― which caused panic in financial markets and led to the default of Lehman Brothers in September 2008 ― then led to a reconsideration of such macroeconomic frameworks (see Caballero (2010) and Trichet (2011)). To address the economic debate from a new perspective, it is therefore necessary to integrate the relevant frictions which help to explain what we have experienced during recent years.
In this thesis, I analyze different ways to incorporate relevant frictions and financial variables in macroeconometric models. I discuss the potential consequences for standard statistical inference and macroeconomic policy. I cover three different aspects in this work. Each aspect presents an idea in a self-contained unit. The following paragraphs present more detail on the main topics covered.
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Natural-resource or Market-seeking FDI in Russia? An Empirical Study of Locational Factors Affecting the Regional Distribution of FDI Entries
K. Gonchar, Philipp Marek
HSE Working Papers, Series: Economics, WP BRP 26/EC/2013,
2013
Abstract
This paper analyzes the spatial distribution of foreign direct investment (FDI) across regions in Russia. Our analysis employs data on Russian firms with a foreign investor during the 2000-2009 period and links regional statistics in the conditional logit model. The main findings are threefold. First, we conclude that market-related factors and the availability of natural resources are important factors in attracting FDI. Second, existing agglomeration economies encourage foreign investors. Third, the findings imply that service-oriented FDI co-locates with extraction industries in resource-endowed regions.
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Has the Euro Increased International Price Elasticities?
Oliver Holtemöller, Götz Zeddies
Empirica,
No. 1,
2013
Abstract
The introduction of the Euro has been accompanied by the hope that international competition between EMU member states would increase due to higher price transparency. This paper contributes to the literature by analyzing price elasticities in international trade flows between Germany and France and between Germany and the United Kingdom before and after the introduction of the Euro. Using disaggregated Eurostat trade statistics, we adopt a heterogeneous dynamic panel framework for the estimation of price elasticities. We suggest a Kalman-filter approach to control for unobservable quality changes which otherwise would bias estimates of price elasticities. We divide the complete sample, which ranges from 1995 to 2008, into two sub-samples and show that price elasticities in trade between EMU members did not change substantially after the introduction of the Euro. Hence, we do not find evidence for an increase in international price competition resulting from EMU.
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Natural-resource or Market-seeking FDI in Russia? An Empirical Study of Locational Factors Affecting the Regional Distribution of FDI Entries
K. Gonchar, Philipp Marek
IWH Discussion Papers,
No. 3,
2013
Abstract
This paper conducts an empirical study of the factors that affect the spatial distribution of foreign direct investment (FDI) across regions in Russia; in particular, this paper is concerned with those regions that are endowed with natural resources and market-related benefits. Our analysis employs data on Russian firms with a foreign investor during the 2000-2009 period and linked regional statistics in the conditional logit model. The main findings are threefold. First, we conclude that one theory alone is not able to explain the geographical pattern of foreign investments in Russia. A combination of determinants is at work; market-related factors and the availability of natural resources are important factors in attracting FDI. The relative importance of natural resources seems to grow over time, despite shocks associated with events such as the Yukos trial. Second, existing agglomeration economies encourage foreign investors by means of forces generated simultaneously by sector-specific and inter-sectoral externalities. Third, the findings imply that service-oriented FDI co-locates with extraction industries in resource-endowed regions. The results are robust when Moscow is excluded and for subsamples including only Greenfield investments or both Greenfield investments and mergers and acquisitions (M&A).
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Predicting Financial Crises: The (Statistical) Significance of the Signals Approach
Makram El-Shagi, Tobias Knedlik, Gregor von Schweinitz
Journal of International Money and Finance,
No. 35,
2013
Abstract
The signals approach as an early-warning system has been fairly successful in detecting crises, but it has so far failed to gain popularity in the scientific community because it cannot distinguish between randomly achieved in-sample fit and true predictive power. To overcome this obstacle, we test the null hypothesis of no correlation between indicators and crisis probability in three applications of the signals approach to different crisis types. To that end, we propose bootstraps specifically tailored to the characteristics of the respective datasets. We find (1) that previous applications of the signals approach yield economically meaningful results; (2) that composite indicators aggregating information contained in individual indicators add value to the signals approach; and (3) that indicators which are found to be significant in-sample usually perform similarly well out-of-sample.
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The Structural Determinants of the US Competitiveness in the Last Decades: A 'Trade-Revealing' Analysis
Massimo Del Gatto, Filippo di Mauro, Joseph Gruber, Benjamin Mandel
ECB Working Paper,
No. 1443,
2012
Abstract
We analyze the decline in the U.S. share of world merchandise exports against the backdrop of a model-based measure of competitiveness. We preliminarily use constant market share analysis and gravity estimations to show that the majority of the decline in export shares can be associated with a declining share of world income, suggesting that the dismal performance of the U.S. market share is not a sufficient statistic for competitiveness. We then derive a computable measure of country-sector specific real marginal costs (i.e. competitiveness) which, insofar it is inferred from actual trade ows, is referred to as 'revealed'. Brought to the data, this measure reveals that most U.S. manufacturing industries are losing momentum relative to their main competitors, as we find U.S. revealed marginal costs to grow by more than 38% on average. At the sectoral level, the "Machinery" industry is the most critical.
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Predicting Financial Crises: The (Statistical) Significance of the Signals Approach
Makram El-Shagi, Tobias Knedlik, Gregor von Schweinitz
Abstract
The signals approach as an early warning system has been fairly successful in detecting crises, but it has so far failed to gain popularity in the scientific community because it does not distinguish between randomly achieved in-sample fit and true predictive power. To overcome this obstacle, we test the null hypothesis of no correlation between indicators and crisis probability in three applications of the signals approach to different crisis types. To that end, we propose bootstraps specifically tailored to the characteristics of the respective datasets. We find (1) that previous applications of the signals approach yield economically meaningful and statistically significant results and (2) that composite
indicators aggregating information contained in individual indicators add value to the signals approach, even where most individual indicators are not statistically significant on their own.
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