Macroeconomic Challenges in the Euro Area and the Acceding Countries
Katja Drechsel
Dissertation, Fachbereich Wirtschaftswissenschaften der Universität Osnabrück,
2010
Abstract
deutscher Titel: Makroökonomische Herausforderungen für die Eurozone und die Beitrittskandidaten
Abstract: The conduct of effective economic policy faces a multiplicity of macroeconomic challenges, which requires a wide scope of theoretical and empirical analyses. With a focus on the European Union, this doctoral dissertation consists of two parts which make empirical and methodological contributions to the literature on forecasting real economic activity and on the analysis of business cycles in a boom-bust framework in the light of the EMU enlargement. In the first part, we tackle the problem of publication lags and analyse the role of the information flow in computing short-term forecasts up to one quarter ahead for the euro area GDP and its main components. A huge dataset of monthly indicators is used to estimate simple bridge equations. The individual forecasts are then pooled, using different weighting schemes. To take into consideration the release calendar of each indicator, six forecasts are compiled successively during the quarter. We find that the sequencing of information determines the weight allocated to each block of indicators, especially when the first month of hard data becomes available. This conclusion extends the findings of the recent literature. Moreover, when combining forecasts, two weighting schemes are found to outperform the equal weighting scheme in almost all cases. In the second part, we focus on the potential accession of the new EU Member States in Central and Eastern Europe to the euro area. In contrast to the discussion of Optimum Currency Areas, we follow a non-standard approach for the discussion on abandonment of national currencies the boom-bust theory. We analyse whether evidence for boom-bust cycles is given and draw conclusions whether these countries should join the EMU in the near future. Using a broad range of data sets and empirical methods we document credit market imperfections, comprising asymmetric financing opportunities across sectors, excess foreign currency liabilities and contract enforceability problems both at macro and micro level. Furthermore, we depart from the standard analysis of comovements of business cycles among countries and rather consider long-run and short-run comovements across sectors. While the results differ across countries, we find evidence for credit market imperfections in Central and Eastern Europe and different sectoral reactions to shocks. This gives favour for the assessment of the potential euro accession using this supplementary, non-standard approach.
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Finance and Growth in a Bank-Based Economy: Is It Quantity or Quality that Matters?
Michael Koetter, Michael Wedow
Journal of International Money and Finance,
No. 8,
2010
Abstract
Most finance–growth studies approximate the size of financial systems rather than the quality of intermediation to explain economic growth differentials. Furthermore, the neglect of systematic differences in cross-country studies could drive the result that finance matters. We suggest a measure of bank’s intermediation quality using bank-specific efficiency estimates and focus on the regions of one economy only: Germany. This quality measure has a significantly positive effect on growth. This result is robust to the exclusion of banks operating in multiple regions, controlling for the proximity of financial markets, when distinguishing different banking sectors active in Germany, and when excluding the structurally weaker East from the sample.
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Governmental Learning as a Determinant of Economic Growth
Marina Grusevaja
IWH Discussion Papers,
No. 23,
2010
Abstract
Systemic economic transition is a process of determined radical institutional change, a process of building new institutions required by a market economy. Nowadays, the experience of transition countries with the implementation of new institutions could be reviewed as a method of economic development that despite similar singular steps has different effects on the domestic economic performance. The process of institutional change towards a market economy is determined by political will, thus the government plays an important role in carrying out the economic reforms. Among the variety of outcomes and effects the attention is drawn especially to economic growth that diverges significantly in different post-transition countries. The paper attempts to shed light upon the problem on the basis of institutional economics, of economics of innovation and partially of political economy of growth using an evolutionary, process-oriented perspective. In this context the issue central to the promotion of economic growth is the successful implementation of new institutions through governmental activities. The paper shows that under the conditions of bounded rationality and radical uncertainty economic growth is determined, inter alia, by the capacity for governmental learning.
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Specialization, Diversity, Competition and their Impact on Local Economic Growth in Germany
Martin T. W. Rosenfeld, Annette Illy, Michael Schwartz, Christoph Hornych
Abstract
This study systematically examines the impact of fundamental elements of urban economic structure on urban growth in Germany from 2003 to 2007. We test four elements simultaneously, that is sectoral specialization, diversification of economic activities, urban size as well as the impact of local competition. To account for the effect of varying spatial delimitations in the analysis of urban growth, we further differentiate between cities and planning regions as geographical units. The analysis covers manufacturing industries as well as service sectors. Most previous work produces inconsistent results and concentrates on localization economies and/or diversification, while urban size and the effect of local competition are widely ignored. Our regression results show a U-shaped relationship between localization economies and urban growth and positive effects of local competition on urban growth. With respect to diversification, we find positive effects on urban growth on the city-level, but insignificant results on the level of the planning regions. The impact of urban size also differs between free cities and planning regions; in the former a U-shaped relationship is found whereas the effect is inversely U-shaped for the latter.
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Characteristics of Business Cycles: Have they Changed?
Oliver Holtemöller, J. Rahn, M. H. Stierle
IWH-Sonderhefte,
No. 5,
2009
Abstract
The most recent economic downturn has shown that economic activity nowadays is still prone to large fluctuations. Despite a long tradition of research, the understanding of such fluctuations, namely business cycles, is still far from comprehensive. Moreover, in a developing world with new technologies, faster communication systems, a higher integration of world markets and increasingly better-skilled people the nature of business cycles changes continuously and new insights can be drawn from recent experience.
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New Growth and Poverty Alleviation Strategies for Africa – Institutional and Local Perspectives. African Development Perspectives Yearbook, Vol. 14
Tobias Knedlik, Karl Wohlmuth, Philippe Burger, Achim Gutowski, Mareike Meyn, T. (eds) Urban, Afeikhena Jerome
,
2009
Abstract
The Volume XIV analyses the “New Growth and Poverty Alleviation Strategies for Africa“. Institutional issues and perspectives in designing new growth and poverty alleviation strategies are considered in various case studies (Cote d'Ivoire, Nigeria, Botswana and Tanzania). Other studies deal with institutional problems of resource-rich countries after conflict (Sudan) and with the institutions to enhance environmental protection parallel to economic growth and poverty reduction (Niger). Further studies deal with institutions to bridge the gap between formal and informal entrepreneurial sectors in Kenya and Tanzania. Local issues and perspectives for designing new growth and poverty alleviation strategies are considered in case studies on rural-urban development gaps in Tanzania and on microfinance as an instrument for new growth and poverty alleviation strategies (Tanzania and Eritrea). A study on small farmers in Ghana provides information on the role they can play in value chains. Two studies on Nigeria highlight the local and the sub-regional health and poverty alleviation programmes and the relation to growth. Book reviews and book notes on the theme are part of the volume. This volume builds the foundation for a comprehensive strategy of policy reforms in Africa so as to integrate new growth and poverty alleviation strategies. Complementary to Volume XIV is Volume XIII on “New Growth and Poverty Alleviation Strategies for Africa - Interational and Regional Perspectives“. Both volumes are of importance for all those who work in African countries as officials, executives, managers, researchers, and policy-makers, but also for all those who actively support Africa's development concerns at the international, regional, country, local, and project levels. They will experience this Volume XIV and also the complementary Volume XIII as indispensable sources of insight, reference, and inspiration.
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The Role of the Intellectual Property Rights Regime for Foreign Investors in Post-Socialist Economies
Benedikt Schnellbächer, Johannes Stephan
IWH Discussion Papers,
No. 4,
2009
Abstract
We integrate international business theory on foreign direct investment (FDI) with institutional theory on intellectual property rights (IPR) to explain characteristics and behaviour of foreign investment subsidiaries in Central East Europe, a region with an IPR regime-gap vis-à-vis West European countries. We start from the premise that FDI may play a crucial role for technological catch-up development in Central East Europe via technology and knowledge transfer. By use of a unique dataset generated at the IWH in collaboration with a European consortium in the framework of an EU-project, we assess the role played by the IPR regimes in a selection of CEE countries as a factor for corporate governance and control of foreign invested subsidiaries, for their own technological activity, their trade relationships, and networking partners for technological activity. As a specific novelty to the literature, we assess the in influence of the strength of IPR regimes on corporate control of subsidiaries and conclude that IPR-sensitive foreign investments tend to have lower functional autonomy, tend to cooperate more intensively within their transnational network and yet are still technologically more active than less IPR-sensitive subsidiaries. In terms of economic policy, this leads to the conclusion that the FDI will have a larger developmental impact if the IPR regime in the host economy is sufficiently strict.
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Is There a Way for Old Industrial Districts to Become Attractive for Cultural Industry? The Case of Media Businesses in Halle (Saale), Germany
Martin T. W. Rosenfeld, Christoph Hornych
IWH Discussion Papers,
No. 15,
2008
Abstract
manufacturing have collapsed are trying to stimulate entrepreneurial activities of businesses in the cultural industry. The question is whether this strategy could be successful. This article examines the strategy of supporting the sector of Media Industry (´MI´) by policy makers in the region of Halle in East Germany, where a strong de-industrialization has taken place after the German reunification. Stimulated by the policy makers’ support measures, there actually was a remarkable development of MI. However, the number of MI firms and their employees did not further increase in recent years, after having reached a certain level. This illustrates the limits of political measures for turning a city’s path of industrial development voluntarily.
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Financial Crisis Burdens Economic Activity in Poland
Martina Kämpfe
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 12,
2008
Abstract
Die weltweite Finanzmarktkrise hat auch die mittel- und osteuropäischen Länder erfasst, und zwar sowohl ihre Finanz- und Bankensysteme als auch die realwirtschaftliche Entwicklung. Die einzelnen Länder sind allerdings in unterschiedlichem Ausmaß betroffen. In Polen zeigten sich Auswirkungen auf die Stabilität des Finanzsystems und die aktuelle Wirtschaftslage erst in der zweiten Jahreshälfte deutlicher. In der ersten Jahreshälfte verlief die Binnennachfrage kaum schwächer als im Vorjahr: Neben den Unternehmensinvestitionen, die im zweistelligen Bereich expandierten, legte auch der private Konsum weiter kräftig zu, denn trotz höherer Inflation sind die Realeinkommen der privaten Haushalte aufgrund deutlicher Lohnsteigerungen und einer Rentenanpassung gestiegen. Zwar schwächte sich die Nachfrage aus dem Ausland, vor allem aus den Ländern der alten EU, schon im Frühjahr ab, der Außenhandel insgesamt hat sich aber kaum vermindert, da der Handel mit den asiatischen und osteuropäischen Ländern weiterhin sehr dynamisch verlief. Im dritten Quartal machten sich die Auswirkungen der international verunsicherten Finanzmärkte auf das Finanzsystem in Polen dann erstmals in Form von stärkeren Wechselkursschwankungenbemerkbar, die sich nach einer kurzzeitigen Beruhigung im vierten Quartal verstärkten. Der Złoty verlor binnen weniger Tage stark an Wert, und auchdie Aktienkurse der größten polnischen Unternehmen gerieten unter Druck. Die Verschlechterung der Stabilität des Finanzsystems hat in Polen – wie auch weltweit – zu einer Verschärfung der Kreditkonditionen und einer allgemeinen Verunsicherung der Wirtschaftsakteure geführt, deren längerfristige Folgen auf die Wirtschaft noch nicht absehbar sind. Vor diesem Hintergrund ist insgesamt von einer weiteren Abschwächung der wirtschaftlichen Expansion in diesem und dem nächsten Jahr auszugehen.
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