Will Oil Prices Decline Over the Long Run?
Filippo di Mauro, Robert K. Kaufmann, Pavlos Karadeloglou
ECB Occasional Paper Series,
No. 98,
2008
Abstract
At present, oil markets appear to be behaving in a fashion similar to that in the late 1970s and early 1980s when oil prices rose sharply over an extended period. Furthermore, like at that time, analysts are split on whether such increases will persist or reverse, and if so by how much. The present paper argues that the similarities between the two episodes are not as strong as they might appear at first sight, and that the likelihood of sharp reversals in prices is not particularly great. There are a number of reasons in support of the view that it is unlikely that the first two decades of this century will mimic the last two decades of the previous century. First, oil demand is likely to grow significantly in line with strong economic growth in non-OECD countries. Second, on the supply side, OPEC is likely to enhance its control over markets over the next two decades, as supply increases in newly opened areas will only partially offset declining rates of production in other geologically mature non-OPEC oil regions. Moreover, while concerns about climate change will spur global efforts to reduce carbon emissions, these efforts are not expected to reduce oil demand. Finally, although there is much talk about alternative fuels, few of these are economically viable at the prices currently envisioned, and given the structural impediments, there is a reduced likelihood that the market will be able to generate sufficient quantities of these alternative fuels over the forecast horizon. The above factors imply that oil prices are likely to continue to exceed the USD 70 to USD 90 range over the long term.
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Exchange Rates and FDI: Goods versus Capital Market Frictions
Claudia M. Buch, J. Kleinert
World Economy,
forthcoming
Abstract
Changes in exchange rates affect countries through their impact on cross-border activities such as trade and foreign direct investment (FDI). With increasing activities of multinational firms, the FDI channel is likely to gain in importance. Economic theory provides two main explanations why changes in exchange rates can affect FDI. According to the first explanation, FDI reacts to exchange rate changes if there are information frictions on capital markets and if investment depends on firms’ net worth (capital market friction hypothesis). According to the second explanation, FDI reacts to exchange rate changes if output and factor markets are segmented, and if firm-specific assets are important (goods market friction hypothesis). We provide a unified theoretical framework of these two explanations. We analyse the implications of the model empirically using a dataset based on detailed German firm-level data. We find greater support for the goods market than for the capital market friction hypothesis.
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Spillover Effects of Spatial Growth Poles - a Reconciliation of Conflicting Policy Targets?
Alexander Kubis, Mirko Titze, Joachim Ragnitz
IWH Discussion Papers,
No. 8,
2007
Abstract
Regional economic policy faces the challenge of two competing policy goals - reducing regional economic disparities vs. promoting economic growth. The allocation of public funds has to weigh these goals particularly under the restriction of scarce financial re- sources. If, however, some region turns out to be a regional growth pole with positive spillovers to its disadvantaged periphery, regional policies could be designed to recon- cile the conflicting targets. In this case, peripheral regions could indirectly participate in the economic development of their growing cores. We start our investigation by defining and identifying such growth poles among German regions on the NUTS 3 administrative level based on spatial and sectoral effects. Using cluster analysis, we determine significant characteristics for the general identification of growth poles. Patterns in the sectoral change are identified by means of the change in the employment. Finally, we analyze whether and to what extent these growth poles ex- ert spatial spillover effects on neighbouring regions and thus mitigate contradictory in- terests in regional public policy. For this purpose, we apply a Spatial-Cross-Regressive- Model (SCR-Model) including the change in the secondary sector which allows to con- sider functional economic relations on the administrative level chosen (NUTS 3).
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Ökonomische Systeme im Wandel der Weltwirtschaft/Economic Systems in a Changing World Economy - Festschrift zum 65. Geburtstag von Professor Dr. Karl Wohlmuth
Hans H. Bass, Tobias Knedlik, Mareike Meyn, M. (Hrsg./eds.) Wiegand-Kottisch
,
2007
Abstract
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The Economic Theory of Institutional Change (ETIC) as an Approach to Explain the Emergence of Public Activities (Überarbeitete Fassung eines Vortrags anläßlich der Jahrestagung 1996 des International Institute of Public Finance in Tel Aviv )
Martin T. W. Rosenfeld
Zeitschrift für Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaften (ZWS),
1997
Abstract
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Are Botswana and Mozambique ready for CMA enlargement?
Tobias Knedlik
Botswana Journal of Economics,
No. 3,
2006
Abstract
The paper elaborates on the appropriateness of a potentially enlarged Common Monetary Area in Southern Africa including Botswana and Mozambique. The theory of optimum currency areas including some extensions by accounting for costs of non-integration and considering the external relations of currency areas are presented. Various indicators such as the structure of the economies, interest rates, inflation rates, exchange rates, factor mobility and trading partners are observed empirically. The paper concludes that current changes in the exchange rate policy of Botswana are expected to lead to increasing, though already high, convergence with CMA countries. Botswana is therefore an appropriate candidate for CMA enlargement. Mozambique is converging towards South Africa but still remains on a lower level. Taking into account the costs of non-integration, however, the target of integration should be formulated for the medium term.
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FDI, Producitivity and Economic Restructuring in Central and Eastern Europe
Judit Hamar, Johannes Stephan
Foreign Direct Investment and Technology Transfer in Transition Countries: Theory – Method of Research – Empirical Evidence,
2005
Abstract
This introducturory chapter of Part II of the book represents a comparative overview of economic development and the changing conditions for and results of FDI as a mechanism of productivity growth in Estonia, Hungary, Poland, the Slovakia-Republic, Slovenia. By summarising briefly the main similarities and differences by countries depend on their different stages in FDI attractiveness, labour productivity, economic development levels and restructuring by technology intensity.
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The Economics of Restructuring the German Electricity Sector
Christian Growitsch, Felix Müsgens
Zeitschrift für Energiewirtschaft,
No. 3,
2005
Abstract
The debate about the development of German electricity prices after the liberalization of energy markets in 1998 raises the question of failures in market restructuring. However, a general statement would be misleading for two main reasons. Firstly, the price development, analyzed for the exemplary case of household prices, shows significant differences among the stages of the value chain. Secondly, the underlying cost structure might have changed from 1998 to 2004. While such effects can be expected to level out over time, they can distort the comparison of a small period of observation. For these reasons, we analyzed the different price components at a detailed level, finding a considerable price reduction of about 32% in generation and a much lower reduction of 13% in transmission and distribution tariffs. These decreases have been mostly compensated by a significant increase in taxes and subsidies (+56%).
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Structural Change during Transition: Is Russia Becoming a Service Economy?
Albrecht Kauffmann
Volkswirtschaftliche Diskussionsbeiträge der Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaftlichen Fakultät, Universität Potsdam, Nr. 80,
No. 80,
2005
Abstract
This paper analyses the structural change in Russia during the transition from the planned to a market economy. With regard to the famous three sector hypothesis, broad economic sectors were formed as required by this theory. The computation of their shares at GNP at market prices using Input-Output tables, and the adjustment of results from distortions, generated as side effects of tax avoidance practices, shows results that clearly reject claims that Russia would be on the road to a post-industrial service economy. Instead, at least until 2001, a tendency of “primarisation“ could be observed, that presents Russia closer to less-developed countries.
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An analysis of household electricity price developments in Germany since liberalization
Christian Growitsch, Felix Müsgens
Externe Publikationen,
2005
Abstract
Despite the liberalization of energy markets in 1998, household electricity prices in 2004 are nearly the same as 1998, indicating a failure of market restructuring. However, such a general consideration is misleading for two main reasons. Firstly, the price development shows significant differences among the stages of the value chain. Secondly, the underlying cost structure might have changed from 1998 to 2004. While such effects can be expected to level out over time, they can distort the comparison of a small period of observation. For these reasons, we analyzed the different price components at a detailed level, finding a considerable price reduction of about 32% in generation and a much lower reduction of 13% in transmission and distribution tariffs. These decreases have been mostly compensated by a significant increase in taxes and subsidies (+56%).
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