Sovereign Credit Risk, Banks' Government Support, and Bank Stock Returns around the World: Discussion of Correa, Lee, Sapriza, and Suarez
Reint E. Gropp
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking,
s1
2014
Abstract
In the years leading up to the 2008–09 financial crisis, many banks around the world greatly expanded their balance sheets to take advantage of cheap and abundantly available funding. Access to international funding markets, in particular, made it possible for banks to reach a size that in some cases was a large multiple of their home countries’ gross domestic product (GDP). In Iceland, for example, assets of the banking system reached up to 900% of GDP in 2007. Similarly, by the end of 2008, assets in UK and Swiss banks exceeded 500% of their countries’ GDPs, respectively. Banks may also have grown rapidly because they may have wanted to reach too-big-to-fail status in their country, implying even lower funding cost (Penas and Unal 2004).
The depth and severity of the 2008–09 financial crisis and the subsequent debt crisis in Europe, however, have cast doubts on the ability of governments to bail out banks when they experience severe difficulties, in particular, in financially fragile environments and faced with large budget imbalances. This has resulted in as what some observers have dubbed a “doom loop”: the combination of weak public finances and weak banks results in a vicious cycle, in which the funding cost of banks increases, as the ability of governments to bail out banks is called into question, in turn increasing the funding cost of these banks and making the likelihood that the government will actually have to step in even higher, which in turn increases funding cost to the government and so forth.
Against this background, the paper by Correa et al. (2014) explores the link between sovereign rating changes and bank stock returns. They show large negative reactions of stock returns in response to sovereign ratings downgrades for banks that are expected to receive government support in case of failure. They find the strongest effects in developed economies, where the credibility of government bail outs is higher ex ante, while the effects are smaller in developing and emerging economies. In my view, the paper makes a number of important contributions to the extant literature.
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Ten Years after Accession: State Aid in Eastern Europe
Jens Hölscher, Nicole Nulsch, Johannes Stephan
European State Aid Law Quarterly,
No. 2,
2014
Abstract
In the early phase of transition that started with the 1990s, Central and Eastern European Countries (CEEC) have pursued far-reaching vertical and individual industrial policy with a focus on privatisation and restructuring of traditional industries. Foreign investment from the West and the facilitation of the development of a market economy also involved massive injections of State support. With their accession to the European Union (EU), levels and forms of State aid came under critical review by the European Commission. Now that a first decade has passed since the first Eastern enlargement in 2004, this inquiry investigates how State aid policy in the CEECs has developed during the last...
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The Ex Ante versus Ex Post Effect of Public Guarantees
H. Evren Damar, Reint E. Gropp, Adi Mordel
D. Evanoff, C. Holthausen, G. Kaufman and M. Kremer (eds), The Role of Central Banks in Financial Stability: How has it Changed? World Scientific Studies in International Economics 30,
2013
Abstract
In October 2006, Dominion Bond Rating Service (DBRS) introduced new ratings for banks that account for the potential of government support. The rating changes are not a reflection of any changes in the respective banks’ credit fundamentals. We use this natural experiment to evaluate the consequences of bail out expectations for bank behavior using a difference in differences approach. The results suggest a striking difference between the effects of bail out probabilities during calm times (“ex ante”) versus during crisis times (“ex post”). During calm times, higher bail-out probabilities result in higher risk taking, consistent with the moral hazard view and much of the empirical literature. However, in crisis times, we find that banks with higher bail out probabilities tend to increase their risk taking less compared to banks that were ex ante unlikely to be bailed-out. Charter values are one part of the explanation: Supported banks may have a funding advantage relative to non-supported banks during the crisis. However, we cannot rule out that other factors also may be playing a role, including tighter supervision of supported banks in crisis times.
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Subsidized Vocational Training: Stepping Stone or Trap? – Assessing Empirical Effects using Matching Techniques
Eva Dettmann, Jutta Günther
Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics,
No. 4,
2013
Abstract
Using replacement matching on the basis of a statistical distance function we try to answer the question of whether subsidized vocational training is related to a negative image effect for the graduates. The results show that young people with equal qualifications acquired during subsidized vocational training are disadvantaged solely due to the kind of education they have received. The probability of finding adequate employment is lower than in the control group. Besides the 'general effect' of support we also find less favorable job opportunities for those who attended 'external' as compared to 'workplace-related' training.
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A Control Group Study of Incubators’ Impact to Promote Firm Survival
Michael Schwartz
Journal of Technology Transfer,
No. 3,
2013
Abstract
It is widely unclear as to whether start-up firms supported by publicly-initiated incubator initiatives have higher survival rates than comparable start-up firms that have not received support by such initiatives. This paper contributes to the underlying discussion by performing a large-scale matched-pairs analysis of the long-term survival of 371 incubator firms (after their graduation) from five German incubators and a control group of 371 comparable non-incubated firms. The analysis covers a 10-year time span. To account for the problem of selection bias, a non-parametric matching approach is applied to identify an appropriate control group. For neither of the five incubator locations, we find statistically significant higher survival probabilities for firms located in incubators compared to firms located outside those incubator organizations. For three incubator locations the analysis reveals statistically significant lower chances of survival for those start-ups receiving support by an incubator. The empirical results, therefore, raise some doubts regarding the impacts of incubation on long-term firm survival.
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Competitiveness Research Network – First Year Results
Filippo di Mauro
CompNet Report,
June
2013
Abstract
This interim report summarises the main findings of the Competitiveness Research Network (CompNet) after one year of existence. The Network is organized in three workstreams related to: (i) aggregate measures of competitiveness; (ii) firm-level studies; and (iii) global value chains (GVCs). The main objectives of the Network are to improve the existing frameworks and indicators of competitiveness across all dimensions (macro, micro and cross-border) and establish a more solid connection between identified competitiveness drivers and resulting outcomes (trade, aggregate productivity, employment, growth and essentially welfare), in order to support the design of adequate policies.
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R&D Offshoring and the Productivity Growth of European Regions
Davide Castellani, F. Pieri
CIRCLE Working Papers, No. 20,
No. 20,
2013
Abstract
The recent increase in R&D offshoring have raised fears that knowledge and competitiveness in advanced countries may be at risk of 'hollowing out'. At the same time, economic research has stressed that this process is also likely to allow some reverse technology transfer and foster growth at home. This paper addresses this issue by investigating the extent to which R&D offshoring is associated with productivity dynamics of European regions. We find that offshoring regions have higher productivity growth, but this positive effect fades down with the number of investment projects carried out abroad. A large and positive correlation emerge between the extent of R&D offshoring and the home region productivity growth, supporting the idea that carrying out R&D abroad strengthen European competitiveness.
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How to Create a New Holiday Destination? An Evaluation of Local Public Investment for Supporting Tourism Industry
Albrecht Kauffmann, Martin T. W. Rosenfeld
Quantitative Methods in Tourism Economics,
2013
Abstract
Since the 1990s tourism has been one major area in Saxony where new local public infrastructure has been created. The question is whether this newly-built tourism infrastructure has been able to change the path of economic development in those municipalities where the investment has occurred. Is it possible to activate the tourism industry with the help of public investment at locations that are completely new to the tourism industry? The econometric estimations and a survey of businesses in the field of tourism make it clear that the new tourist infrastructure really did have a positive effect on local employment – but not everywhere and not in every case. Tourist infrastructure will only have a major positive impact on economic development if a municipality already has a “track record” of being a tourist destination and is well-equipped with the relevant complementary factors for tourist activities and the “primary features” of tourist destinations – History matters!
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Competitive Distortions of Bank Bailouts
Michael Koetter, Felix Noth
Abstract
This study investigates if the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) distorted price competition in U.S. banking. Political indicators reveal bailout expectations after 2009, manifested as beliefs about the predicted probability of receiving equity support relative to failing during the TARP disbursement period. In addition, the TARP affected the competitive conduct of unsupported banks after the program stopped in the fourth quarter of 2009. Loan rates were higher, and the risk premium required by depositors was lower for banks with higher bailout expectations. The interest margins of unsupported banks increased in the immediate aftermath of the TARP disbursement but not after 2010. No effects emerged for loan or deposit growth, which suggests that protected banks did not increase their market shares at the expense of less protected banks.
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Stale Information, Shocks, and Volatility
Reint E. Gropp, A. Kadareja
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking,
No. 6,
2012
Abstract
We propose a new approach to measuring the effect of unobservable private information on volatility. Using intraday data, we estimate the effect of a well-identified shock on the volatility of stock returns of European banks as a function of the quality of public information available about the banks. We hypothesize that as publicly available information becomes stale, volatility effects and its persistence increase, as private information of investors becomes more important. We find strong support for this idea in the data. We further show that stock volatility is higher just before important announcements if information is stale.
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