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Job Market Candidates

Job Market Candidates Marius Fourné Marius Fourné is a PhD candidate in Economics at the Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) and Martin Luther University of…

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Step by Step ‒ A Quarterly Evaluation of EU Commission's GDP Forecasts

Katja Heinisch
IWH Discussion Papers, No. 22, 2024
published in: Journal of Forecasting
Abstract

The European Commission’s growth forecasts play a crucial role in shaping policies and provide a benchmark for many (national) forecasters. The annual forecasts are built on quarterly estimates, which do not receive much attention and are hardly known. Therefore, this paper provides a comprehensive analysis of multi-period ahead quarterly GDP growth forecasts for the European Union (EU), euro area, and several EU member states with respect to first-release and current-release data. Forecast revisions and forecast errors are analyzed, and the results show that the forecasts are not systematically biased. However, GDP forecasts for several member states tend to be overestimated at short-time horizons. Furthermore, the final forecast revision in the current quarter is generally downward biased for almost all countries. Overall, the differences in mean forecast errors are minor when using real-time data or pseudo-real-time data and these differences do not significantly impact the overall assessment of the forecasts’ quality. Additionally, the forecast performance varies across countries, with smaller countries and Central and Eastern European countries (CEECs) experiencing larger forecast errors. The paper provides evidence that there is still potential for improvement in forecasting techniques both for nowcasts but also forecasts up to eight quarters ahead. In the latter case, the performance of the mean forecast tends to be superior for many countries.

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Department Profiles

Research Profiles of the IWH Departments All doctoral students are allocated to one of the four research departments (Financial Markets – Laws, Regulations and Factor Markets –…

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Past Events

Past Events 14. CompNet Annual Conference (Vilnius, 25-26 September 2025) The 14th CompNet Annual Conference, co-hosted with the Bank of Lithuania, took place on 25–26 September…

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Academic conference on the 30th anniversary of the single market

Academic conference on the 30th anniversary of the single market 1st session Chair: Josefina Monteagudo (European Commission) The “completeness” of the EU single market in…

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Charts

Info Graphs Sometimes pictures say more than a thousand words. Therefore, we selected a few graphs to present our main topics visually. If you should have any questions or would…

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How Do EU Banks’ Funding Costs Respond to the CRD IV? An Assessment Based on the Banking Union Directives Database

Thomas Krause, Eleonora Sfrappini, Lena Tonzer, Cristina Zgherea
IWH Discussion Papers, No. 12, 2024
published in: Journal of Financial Stability
Abstract

The establishment of the European Banking Union constitutes a major change in the regulatory framework of the banking system. Main parts are implemented via directives that show staggered transposition timing across EU member states. Based on the newly compiled Banking Union Directives Database, we assess how banks’ funding costs responded to the Capital Requirements Directive IV (CRD IV). Our findings show an upward trend in funding costs which is driven by an increase in cost of equity and partially offset by a decline in cost of debt. The diverging trends are most present in countries with an ex-ante lower regulatory capital stringency, which is in line with banks’ short-run adjustment needs but longer-run benefits from increased financial stability.

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MICROPROD

MICROPROD Raising EU Productivity: Lessons from Improved Micro Data The goal of MICROPROD is to contribute to a greater understanding of the challenges brought about in Europe by…

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Green Transition

Green Transition Research and Policy Advice for Structural Change in the German Economy Dossier, 18.06.2024 Green Transition The green transition is a key topic of our time. In a…

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IWH Subsidy Database

IWH Subsidy Databse The microdatabase currently comprises nine data sets on direct business subsidy programmes in Germany. The programme statistics kept by the project sponsors…

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