Real Estate Transaction Taxes and Credit Supply
Michael Koetter, Philipp Marek, Antonios Mavropoulos
Abstract
We exploit staggered real estate transaction tax (RETT) hikes across German states to identify the effect of house price changes on mortgage credit supply. Based on approximately 33 million real estate online listings, we construct a quarterly hedonic house price index (HPI) between 2008:q1 and 2017:q4, which we instrument with state-specific RETT changes to isolate the effect on mortgage credit supply by all local German banks. First, a RETT hike by one percentage point reduces HPI by 1.2%. This effect is driven by listings in rural regions. Second, a 1% contraction of HPI induced by an increase in the RETT leads to a 1.4% decline in mortgage lending. This transmission of fiscal policy to mortgage credit supply is effective across almost the entire bank capitalization distribution.
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Real Estate Transaction Taxes and Credit Supply
Michael Koetter, Philipp Marek, Antonios Mavropoulos
Abstract
We exploit staggered real estate transaction tax (RETT) hikes across German states to identify the effect of house price changes on mortgage credit supply. Based on approximately 33 million real estate online listings, we construct a quarterly hedonic house price index (HPI) between 2008:q1 and 2017:q4, which we instrument with state-speci c RETT changes to isolate the effect on mortgage credit supply by all local German banks. First, a RETT hike by one percentage point reduces HPI by 1.2%. This effect is driven by listings in rural regions. Second, a 1% contraction of HPI induced by an increase in the RETT leads to a 1.4% decline in mortgage lending. This transmission of fiscal policy to mortgage credit supply is effective across almost the entire bank capitalization distribution.
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15.03.2017 • 13/2017
The German Economy: Employment Boom in Germany, but no Overheating of the Economy
Employment in Germany continues to increase healthily, and private consumption expands due to rising real incomes. Investment in equipment, however, remains modest. Overall, economic demand is expanding at roughly the growth rate of potential Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and the output gap is nearly closed. “In 2017, GDP will increase by 1.3% and thus at a lower rate than in the previous year, but this is only due to fewer working days and not to sliding demand,” says Oliver Holtemoeller, Head of the Department Macroeconomics and IWH vice president.
Oliver Holtemöller
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Green Technologies as Industrial Policy Concept? The South of Saxony-Anhalt as a Case Example
Jörg Döpke, Philip Maschke, C. Altmann, D. Bieräugel
List Forum für Wirtschafts- und Finanzpolitik,
No. 1,
2015
Abstract
Die bundespolitische Maßnahme der Energiewende und das Erneuerbare-Energien-Gesetz (EEG) als Teil davon haben in Sachsen-Anhalt Hoffnungen ausgelöst, die insbesondere mit der Förderung grüner Technologien in Verbindung standen. Das vorliegende Papier stellt eine Analyse der Wirkungen von Subventionen im Allgemeinen dar und widmet sich dem EEG und seiner Auswirkungen im Speziellen. Dazu werden auch Ergebnisse einer Befragung herangezogen, welche die Industrie- und Handelskammer (IHK) Halle-Dessau bei Unternehmen im südlichen Sachsen-Anhalt durchgeführt hat.
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Regulation, Innovation and Technology Diffusion - Evidence from Building Energy Efficiency Standards in Germany
Makram El-Shagi, Claus Michelsen, Sebastian Rosenschon
Discussionpapers des DIW Berlin,
No. 1371,
2014
Abstract
The impact of environmental regulation on technology diffusion and innovations is studied using a unique data set of German residential buildings. We analyze how energy efficiency regulations, in terms of minimum standards, affects energy-use in newly constructed buildings and how it induces innovation in the residential-building industry. The data used consists of a large sample of German apartment houses built between 1950 and 2005. Based on this information, we determine their real energy requirements from energy performance certificates and energy billing information. We develop a new measure for regulation intensity and apply a panel-error-correction regression model to energy requirements of low and high quality housing. Our findings suggest that regulation significantly impacts technology adoption in low quality housing. This, in turn, induces improvements in the high quality segment where innovators respond to market signals.
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The Effects of Building Energy Codes in Rental Housing: The German Experience
Claus Michelsen, Sebastian Rosenschon
Economics Bulletin,
No. 4,
2012
Abstract
This paper investigates the effect of building energy codes on housings' real energy consumption. We argue that building codes should have a twofold effect: lower levels of energy consumption after its implementation and decreasing energy requirements over time, because tighter building codes induce technical progress in the construction sector. We find evidence for both aspects. Based on a large and unique sample of energy certificates from Germany, this study is the first that deals with the empirical effects of energy efficiency standards in apartment/rental housing. Moreover, it is the first, which includes different stages of regulation.
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The Quantity Theory Revisited: A New Structural Approach
Makram El-Shagi, Sebastian Giesen
Abstract
While the long run relation between money and inflation is well established, empirical evidence on the adjustment to the long run equilibrium is very heterogeneous. In this paper we show, that the development of US consumer price inflation between 1960Q1 and 2005Q4 is strongly driven by money overhang. To this end, we use a multivariate state space framework that substantially expands the traditional vector error correction approach. This approach allows us to estimate the persistent components of velocity and GDP. A sign restriction approach is subsequently used to identify the structural shocks to the signal equations of the state space model, that explain money growth, inflation and GDP growth. We also account for the possibility that measurement error exhibited by simple-sum monetary aggregates causes the consequences of monetary shocks to be improperly identified by using a Divisia monetary aggregate. Our findings suggest that when the money is measured using a reputable index number, the quantity theory holds for the United States.
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Currency Crises and the Stock Market: Empirical Evidence for Another Type of Twin Crisis
Stefan Eichler, Dominik Maltritz
Applied Economics,
No. 29,
2011
Abstract
We explore the dependency between currency crises and the stock market in emerging economies. Our focus is two-fold. First, the risk of a currency crisis rises as the foreign stake in the domestic stock market increases. Successful economies with high capital flows into their booming stock markets especially are prone to stock market-induced currency crises. Second, we apply the dividend growth model to show that stock markets crash in the run-up to a currency crisis. This new type of twin crisis is empirically tested by employing a logit framework using quarterly data for 33 emerging economies for 1994Q1–2007Q4.
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