The Impact of Debtor Distress and Unemployment on Support for Extremist and Populist Political Parties in the Czech Republic 2001–2017
Jakub Grossmann, Štěpán Jurajda, Lucie Zapletalová
IDEA CERGE-EI Studies,
No. 11,
2023
Abstract
In this study, we analyze the relationships between rising rates of distraint orders and electoral support for populist political parties and extreme left and right wing political parties at the local level. (This publication is written in czech language.)
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Macro data interactive
Macro data interactive This service provides time series from official publications (Statistisches Bundesamt [German Federal Statistical Office], Arbeitskreis Volkswirtschaftliche…
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27.03.2024 • 11/2024
East Germany's lead over West Germany in terms of growth is bound to shrink – Implications of the Joint Economic Forecast Spring 2024 for the East German economy
In 2023, the East German economy is expected to have expanded by 0.5%, while it shrank by 0.3% in Germany as a whole. The Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) forecasts an East German growth rate of 0.5% again for 2024, and a rate of 1.5% in 2025. The unemployment rate is expected to be 7.3% in 2024 and 7.1% in the following year.
Oliver Holtemöller
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A Congestion Theory of Unemployment Fluctuations
Yusuf Mercan, Benjamin Schoefer, Petr Sedláček
American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics,
Vol. 16 (1),
2024
Abstract
We propose a theory of unemployment fluctuations in which newhires and incumbentworkers are imperfect substitutes. Hence, attempts to hire away the unemployed during recessions diminish the marginal product of new hires, discouraging job creation. This single feature achieves a ten-fold increase in the volatility of hiring in an otherwise standard search model, produces a realistic Beveridge curve despite countercyclical separations, and explains 30–40% of U.S. unemployment fluctuations. Additionally, it explains the excess procyclicality of new hires’ wages, the cyclical labor wedge, countercyclical earnings losses from job displacement, and the limited steady-state effects of unemployment insurance.
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Conditional Macroeconomic Survey Forecasts: Revisions and Errors
Alexander Glas, Katja Heinisch
Journal of International Money and Finance,
Vol. 138 (November),
2023
Abstract
Using data from the European Central Bank's Survey of Professional Forecasters and ECB/Eurosystem staff projections, we analyze the role of ex-ante conditioning variables for macroeconomic forecasts. In particular, we test to which extent the updating and ex-post performance of predictions for inflation, real GDP growth and unemployment are related to beliefs about future oil prices, exchange rates, interest rates and wage growth. While oil price and exchange rate predictions are updated more frequently than macroeconomic forecasts, the opposite is true for interest rate and wage growth expectations. Beliefs about future inflation are closely associated with oil price expectations, whereas expected interest rates are related to predictions of output growth and unemployment. Exchange rate predictions also matter for macroeconomic forecasts, albeit less so than the other variables. With regard to forecast errors, wage growth and GDP growth closely comove, but only during the period when interest rates are at the effective zero lower bound.
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The Rise of Populist Parties in Europe
The Rise of Populist Parties in Europe: The Dark Side of Globalisation and Technological Change? Is the increasing strength of populist parties due to economic causes?…
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ENTRANCES
ENTRANCES aims at examining the effects of the coal phase-out in Europe. How does the phase-out transform society – and what can politics do about it? The EU-funded,…
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Behaviour
The maths behind gut decisions First carefully weigh up the costs and benefits and then make a rational decision. This may be the way we want it to be. But in reality, invisible…
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Ludwig (Interview)
About the CIA and a glass of red wine ... Professor Dr Udo Ludwig on the beginnings of our institute The core of the IWH founding team came from the Institute for Applied Economic…
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Speed Projects
Speed Projects On this page, you will find the IWH EXplore Speed Projects in chronologically descending order. 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2021 SPEED 2021/01…
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