Centre for Business and Productivity Dynamics
Centre for Business and Productivity Dynamics (IWH-CBPD) The Centre for Business and Productivity Dynamics (CBPD) was founded in January 2025 and works with policy and research…
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Scientific Advisory Board
Scientific Advisory Board As an association established and registered under German civil law the IWH is composed of different internal bodies through which it is led and…
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Internationalisation
Internationalisation The Leibniz Institute for Economic Research Halle (IWH) is responsible for economic research and economic policy advice on a scientific basis. The institute…
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Macro Data Download
Macro Data Download On this page, you will find long time series of macroeconomic data provided by IWH for download. Please note that most files come with labels and legends in…
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IWH FDI Micro Database
IWH FDI Micro Database The IWH FDI Micro Database (FDI = Foreign Direct Investment) comprises a total population of affiliates of multinational enterprises (MNEs) in selected…
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27.03.2024 • 10/2024
Joint Economic Forecast 1/2024: Headwinds from Germany and abroad: institutes revise forecast significantly downwards
According to Germany’s five leading economic research institutes, the country’s economy shows cyclical and structural weaknesses. In their spring report, they revised their GDP forecast for the current year significantly downward to 0.1%. In the recent fall report, the figure was still 1.3%. Expectations for the coming year are almost unchanged at 1.4% (previously 1.5%). However, the level of economic activity will then be over 30 billion euros lower due to the current weak phase.
Oliver Holtemöller
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Forecasting Economic Activity Using a Neural Network in Uncertain Times: Monte Carlo Evidence and Application to the
German GDP
Oliver Holtemöller, Boris Kozyrev
IWH Discussion Papers,
No. 6,
2024
Abstract
In this study, we analyzed the forecasting and nowcasting performance of a generalized regression neural network (GRNN). We provide evidence from Monte Carlo simulations for the relative forecast performance of GRNN depending on the data-generating process. We show that GRNN outperforms an autoregressive benchmark model in many practically relevant cases. Then, we applied GRNN to forecast quarterly German GDP growth by extending univariate GRNN to multivariate and mixed-frequency settings. We could distinguish between “normal” times and situations where the time-series behavior is very different from “normal” times such as during the COVID-19 recession and recovery. GRNN was superior in terms of root mean forecast errors compared to an autoregressive model and to more sophisticated approaches such as dynamic factor models if applied appropriately.
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Teaching
Teaching Within the framework of its cooperations with both German and foreign universities IWH researchers are actively committed to teaching by offering academic courses. These…
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Flight to Safety: How Economic Downturns Affect Talent Flows to Startups
Shai B. Bernstein, Richard R. Townsend, Ting Xu
Review of Financial Studies,
No. 3,
2024
Abstract
Using proprietary data from AngelList Talent, we study how startup job seekers’ search and application behavior changed during the COVID-19 downturn. We find that workers shifted their searches and applications away from less-established startups and toward more-established ones, even within the same individual over time. At the firm level, this shift was not offset by an influx of new job seekers. Less-established startups experienced a relative decline in the quantity and quality of applications, ultimately affecting their hiring. Our findings uncover a flight-to-safety channel in the labor market that may amplify the procyclical nature of entrepreneurial activities.
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IWH Subsidy Database
IWH Subsidy Databse The microdatabase currently comprises nine data sets on direct business subsidy programmes in Germany. The programme statistics kept by the project sponsors…
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