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12.03.2024 • 8/2024

Risk in the banking sector: four out of ten top supervisors come from the financial industry

Europe's banks realise excess returns on the stock market when their alumni join the boards of national supervisory authorities. A study by the Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) shows that this happens more frequently than previously recognised. The findings indicate a risk to financial stability and call for a more merit-based, transparent appointment of senior regulators.

Michael Koetter
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Tracking Weekly State-Level Economic Conditions

Christiane Baumeister, Danilo Leiva-León, Eric Sims
Review of Economics and Statistics, No. 2, 2024
Abstract
This paper develops a novel dataset of weekly economic conditions indices for the 50 U.S. states going back to 1987 based on mixed-frequency dynamic factor models with weekly, monthly, and quarterly variables that cover multiple dimensions of state economies. We find considerable cross-state heterogeneity in the length, depth, and timing of business cycles. We illustrate the usefulness of these state-level indices for quantifying the main contributors to the economic collapse caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and for evaluating the effectiveness of the Paycheck Protection Program. We also propose an aggregate indicator that gauges the overall weakness of the U.S. economy.
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Transformation tables for administrative borders in Germany

Transformation tables for administrative borders in Germany The state has the ability to change the original spatial structure of its administrative regions. The stated goal of…

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Data

Transformation tables for administrative borders in Germany – data In order to demonstrate what kind of information the available tables contain and how they are structured, the…

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IWH Construction Survey

IWH Construction Survey From 1993 until the first quarter of 2017, the IWH conducted regular surveys among companies. The results of these surveys could be used to promptly…

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IWH Industry Survey

IWH Industry Survey From 1993 until the first quarter of 2017, the IWH conducted regular surveys among companies. The results of these surveys could be used to promptly describe…

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Is Risk the Fuel of the Business Cycle? Financial Frictions and Oil Market Disturbances

Christoph Schult
IWH Discussion Papers, No. 4, 2024
Abstract
I estimate a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model for the United States that incorporates oil market shocks and risk shocks working through credit market frictions. The findings of this analysis indicate that risk shocks play a crucial role during the Great Recession and the Dot-Com bubble but not during other economic downturns. Credit market frictions do not amplify persistent oil market shocks. This result holds as long as entry and exit rates of entrepreneurs are independent of the business cycle.
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Research Clusters

Three Research Clusters Research Cluster "Economic Dynamics and Stability" Research Questions This cluster focuses on empirical analyses of macroeconomic dynamics and stability.…

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A Multi-Model Assessment of Inequality and Climate Change

Marie Young-Brun, et al.
Research Square, 2024
Abstract

Climate change and inequality are critical and interrelated defining issues for this century. Despite growing empirical evidence on the economic incidence of climate policies and impacts, mainstream model-based assessments are often silent on the interplay between climate change and economic inequality. For example, all the major model comparisons reviewed in IPCC neglect within-country inequalities. Here we fill this gap by presenting a model ensemble of eight large-scale Integrated Assessment Models belonging to different model paradigms and featuring economic heterogeneity. We study the distributional implications of Paris-aligned climate target of 1.5 degree and include different carbon revenue redistribution schemes. Moreover, we account for the economic inequalities resulting from residual and avoided climate impacts. We find that price-based climate policies without compensatory measures increase economic inequality in most countries and across models. However, revenue redistribution through equal per-capita transfers can offset this effect, leading to on average decrease in the Gini index by almost two points. When climate benefits are included, inequality is further reduced, but only in the long term. Around mid-century, the combination of dried-up carbon revenues and yet limited climate benefits leads to higher inequality under the Paris target than in the Reference scenario, indicating the need for further policy measures in the medium term.

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IWH Macrometer

IWH Macrometer Macroeconomic Database for the German Länder, East and West Germany The data offered by the IWH Macrometer consists of two parts: (1) interactive macro data and (2)…

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