12.06.2025 • 19/2025
Economic recovery in Germany – but structural problems and US trade policy weigh on the economy
The German economy has picked up somewhat in the first half of 2025. This was helped by the temporary increase in demand from the US in anticipation of higher tariffs. If the US does not escalate its trade conflicts further, production in Germany according to the summer forecast of the Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) is likely to increase a bit (by 0.4%) in 2025, after two years of decline. In March, the IWH economists were forecasting growth of 0.1% for the current year. Growth of 1.1% is forecast for the year 2026. Similar expansion rates are to be expected for East Germany.
Oliver Holtemöller
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Konjunktur aktuell: Konjunkturelle Belebung in Deutschland – strukturelle Probleme und US-Handelspolitik belasten
Konjunktur aktuell,
No. 2,
2025
Abstract
Wie es mit der internationalen Konjunktur in diesem und im kommenden Jahr weitergeht, hängt im Wesentlichen vom Fortgang der Handelskonflikte zwischen den USA und dem Rest der Welt ab. Alles in allem steigt die Weltproduktion in den Jahren 2025 und 2026 um jeweils 2,3%. Das größte weltwirtschaftliche Risiko besteht darin, dass die Handelskonflikte der USA mit der EU und insbesondere mit China weiter eskalieren. Für die deutsche Wirtschaft gibt es mehr und mehr Anzeichen für eine konjunkturelle Erholung, die jedoch ebenfalls erheblich von der möglichen Eskalation der US-Handelskonflikte gefährdet ist. Das Bruttoinlandsprodukt dürfte im Jahr 2025 mit 0,4% erstmals seit zwei Jahren wieder etwas zunehmen.
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Economic Outlook
IWH Summer Forecast 2026 Between Energy Crisis and AI Boom June 11, 2026 Until the outbreak of the energy crisis, the German economy was on a path to recovery. Now the recovery…
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Wirtschaft im Wandel
Wirtschaft im Wandel Die Zeitschrift „Wirtschaft im Wandel“ unterrichtet die breite Öffentlichkeit über aktuelle Themen der Wirtschaftsforschung. Sie stellt wirtschaftspolitisch…
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10.04.2025 • 14/2025
In East Germany, as in the west, the economy is in crisis - Implications of the Joint Economic Forecast Spring 2025 and new data for the East German economy
In 2024, the economy in East Germany shrank by 0.1% and in Germany as a whole by 0.2%. The Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) expects stagnation for East Germany in 2025 and growth of 1.1% in 2026. According to the IWH forecast, the unemployment rate is expected to be 7.8% in both 2025 and 2026, after 7.5% in 2024.
Oliver Holtemöller
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Research Articles
Research Articles Explore cutting-edge research based on CompNet’s micro-aggregated firm-level data and related analytical tools. These articles cover empirical and theoretical…
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Archive
Media Response Archive 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 December 2021 IWH: Ausblick auf Wirtschaftsjahr 2022 in Sachsen mit Bezug auf IWH-Prognose zu Ostdeutschland: "Warum Sachsens…
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13.03.2025 • 10/2025
A turning point for the German economy?
The international political environment has fundamentally changed with looming trade wars and a deteriorating security situation in Europe. The leading parties in Germany are setting the stage for debt-financed additional defence tasks with far-reaching changes to the debt brake. This entails major risks for the German economy, but also opportunities. Meanwhile, the economy continues to be in a downturn. According to the spring forecast of the Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), gross domestic product (GDP) in 2025 is likely to be roughly the same as in the previous year, and it will not increase significantly until 2026, partly because uncertainty about German economic policy is likely to decrease after the new government is established, meaning that the savings rate of private households will fall again somewhat and the debt-financed additional government spending will gradually have an impact on demand. The IWH economists are forecasting an increase in GDP of 0.1% for 2025. In December, they were still forecasting growth of 0.4% for 2025. The outlook is similar for East Germany, where production is likely to have increased slightly in 2024, unlike in Germany as a whole.
Oliver Holtemöller
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Konjunktur aktuell: Zeitenwende für die deutsche Wirtschaft?
Konjunktur aktuell,
No. 1,
2025
Abstract
Die Ankündigungen und Entscheidungen der neuen US-Regierung um den Russland-Ukraine-Konflikt und die Zollpolitik haben weltweit zu hoher Unsicherheit geführt. Im Euroraum bleibt die Konjunktur schwach. Auch die deutsche Konjunktur ist weiter im Abschwung. Das Bruttoinlandsprodukt dürfte im Jahr 2025 um 0,1% und im Jahr darauf um 1,3% zunehmen.
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Energy
Energy This research project focused on understanding the various channels through which energy efficiency is achieved within firms. The study aims to investigate these channels…
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