13 CompNet Annual Conference
13th CompNet Annual Conference The 13th Annual Conference in Valletta, hosted by the Central Bank of Malta, was a resounding success. We extend our heartfelt thanks to everyone…
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ProdTalks
CompNet ProdTalks CompNet ProdTalks is a monthly recurring 1.5 hour virtual event, two selected papers will be presented including presentation, discussion and Q&A. The top ic…
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2020 Annual Conference of the OECD Global Forum of Productivity
2020 Annual Conference of the OECD Global Forum of Productivity This year CompNet celebrates its 10th Annual Conference, together with Banque de France as co-host, which will…
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Alumni
IWH Alumni The IWH maintains contact with its former employees worldwide. We involve our alumni in our work and keep them informed, for example, with a newsletter. We also plan…
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Research Groups
Our Research Groups Banking, Regulation, and Incentive Structures Data Science in Financial Economics Econometric Tools for Macroeconomic Forecasting and Simulation Education,…
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PhD Graduates Financial Markets
PhD Graduates of the Department of Financial Markets Eleonora Sfrappini: "Four Essays on Banking, Climate Risks and Financial Regulation" (2024) Willam McShane: "The Competitive…
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Macroeconomic Effects from Sovereign Risk vs. Knightian Uncertainty
Ruben Staffa
IWH Discussion Papers,
No. 27,
2023
Abstract
This paper compares macroeconomic effects of Knightian uncertainty and risk using policy shocks for the case of Italy. Drawing on the ambiguity literature, I use changes in the bid-ask spread and mid-price of government bonds as distinct measures for uncertainty and risk. The identification exploits the quasi-pessimistic behavior under ambiguity-aversion and the dealer market structure of government bond markets, where dealers must quote both sides of the market. If uncertainty increases, ambiguity-averse dealers will quasi-pessimistically quote higher ask and lower bid prices – increasing the bid-ask spread. In contrast, a pure change in risk shifts the risk-compensating discount factor which is well approximated by the change in bond mid-prices. I evaluate economic effects of the two measures within an instrumental variable local projection framework. The main findings are threefold. First, the resulting shock time series for uncertainty and risk are uncorrelated with each other at the intraday level, however, upon aggregation to monthly level the measures become correlated. Second, uncertainty is an important driver of economic aggregates. Third, macroeconomic effects of risk and uncertainty are similar, except for the response of prices. While sovereign risk raises inflation, uncertainty suppresses price growth – a result which is in line with increased price rigidity under ambiguity.
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East Germany
The Nasty Gap 30 years after unification: Why East Germany is still 20% poorer than the West Dossier In a nutshell The East German economic convergence process is hardly…
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Joint Economic Forecast
Joint Economic Forecast The joint economic forecast is an instrument for evaluating the overall economic situation and development in Germany, the euro area and the rest of the…
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Financial Stability
Financial Systems: The Anatomy of the Market Economy How the financial system is constructed, how it works, how to keep it fit and what good a bit of chocolate can do. Dossier In…
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