Economic Outlook
Joint Economic Forecast Spring 2026 Energy Price Shock Dampens Recovery – Inflation Rises April 1, 2026 Although the leading economic research institutes consider the German…
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Halle Institute for Economic Research
Energy Price Shock Dampens Recovery – Inflation Rises Although the leading economic research institutes, in their joint spring forecast, consider the German economy to be in a…
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Research Articles
Research Articles Explore cutting-edge research based on CompNet’s micro-aggregated firm-level data and related analytical tools. These articles cover empirical and theoretical…
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Archive
Media Response Archive 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 December 2021 IWH: Ausblick auf Wirtschaftsjahr 2022 in Sachsen mit Bezug auf IWH-Prognose zu Ostdeutschland: "Warum Sachsens…
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Why Is the Roy-Borjas Model Unable to Predict International Migrant Selection on Education? Evidence from Urban and Rural Mexico
Stefan Leopold, Jens Ruhose, Simon Wiederhold
World Economy,
Vol. 48 (2),
2025
Abstract
The Roy-Borjas model predicts that international migrants are less educated than nonmigrants because the returns to education are generally higher in developing (migrant-sending) than in developed (migrant-receiving) countries. However, empirical evidence often shows the opposite. Using the case of Mexico-U.S. migration, we show that this inconsistency between predictions and empirical evidence can be resolved when the human capital of migrants is assessed using a two-dimensional measure of occupational skills rather than by educational attainment. Thus, focusing on a single skill dimension when investigating migrant selection can lead to misleading conclusions about the underlying economic incentives and behavioral models of migration.
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IWH-DPE in a Nutshell
IWH-DPE in a Nutshell The IWH Doctoral Programme in Economics (IWH-DPE) is the unit that organises the education of doctoral students at the IWH in close cooperation with partner…
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Research Clusters
Three Research Clusters Each IWH research group is assigned to a topic-oriented research cluster. The clusters are not separate organisational units, but rather bundle the…
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Alumni
IWH Alumni The IWH maintains contact with its former employees worldwide. We involve our alumni in our work and keep them informed, for example, with a newsletter. We also plan…
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16.01.2025 • 3/2025
Medium-term projection for the German economy and scenarios for achieving the targets of the Climate Protection Law
The potential growth rate of the German economy is declining. According to the medium-term projection of the Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), potential output is likely to increase by an annual average of just 0.3% in the medium term (2023-2029). The target of climate neutrality by 2045 is likely to be missed by a wide margin without further emission-reducing measures. It could be achieved by means of higher CO₂ prices at significantly lower macroeconomic costs than by means of non-market-based regulatory measures.
Oliver Holtemöller
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East Germany
The Nasty Gap 30 years after unification: Why East Germany is still 20% poorer than the West Dossier In a nutshell The East German economic convergence process is hardly…
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