The European Commission’s growth forecasts play a crucial role in shaping policies and provide a benchmark for many (national) forecasters. The annual forecasts are built on quarterly estimates, which do not receive much attention and are hardly known. Therefore, this paper provides a comprehensive analysis of multi-period ahead quarterly GDP growth forecasts for the European Union (EU), euro area, and several EU member states with respect to first-release and current-release data. Forecast revisions and forecast errors are analyzed, and the results show that the forecasts are not systematically biased. However, GDP forecasts for several member states tend to be overestimated at short-time horizons. Furthermore, the final forecast revision in the current quarter is generally downward biased for almost all countries. Overall, the differences in mean forecast errors are minor when using real-time data or pseudo-real-time data and these differences do not significantly impact the overall assessment of the forecasts’ quality. Additionally, the forecast performance varies across countries, with smaller countries and Central and Eastern European countries (CEECs) experiencing larger forecast errors. The paper provides evidence that there is still potential for improvement in forecasting techniques both for nowcasts but also forecasts up to eight quarters ahead. In the latter case, the performance of the mean forecast tends to be superior for many countries.

Am 13. Februar 2025 wurde der zweite Zwischenbericht zur begleitenden Evaluierung des Investitionsgesetzes Kohleregionen (InvKG) und des STARK-Bundesprogramms von den Wirtschaftsforschungsinstituten IWH und RWI veröffentlicht. 

Die Evaluierung, die im Auftrag des Bundesministeriums für Wirtschaft und Klimaschutz durchgeführt wird, analysiert die Fortschritte der Programme, identifiziert die Wirkungen der Förderung und gibt konkrete Handlungsempfehlungen, wie die Maßnahmen optimiert werden können, um die Transformation der vom Kohleausstieg betroffenen Regionen in Deutschland erfolgreich zu gestalten.

We study the aggregate, distributional, and welfare effects of fiscal policy responses to Germany’s energy crisis arising in 2022 using a novel ten-agent New Keynesian (TENK) model. The crisis, compounded by the COVID-19 pandemic, led to sharp price increases and significant consumption disparities. Our model, calibrated to Germany’s income and consumption distribution, evaluates key policy interventions. We find that non-targeted transfers had the largest short-term aggregate impact, while targeted transfers for lower income households were more cost-effective. The energy cost brake and reductions in gas and oil taxes have shown very little effect, but were comparatively cost-effective under the assumption of exogenous prices. Our results highlight how targeted fiscal measures can address distributional effects and stabilize consumption during crises.

The Transition Report 2024-25 focuses on industrial policies in the EBRD regions and beyond. Such policies have seen a resurgence, seeking to address market failures such as environmental degradation. However, their track record is mixed. Their growing popularity is shaped primarily by domestic political economy considerations and rising geopolitical tensions. While industrial policies are typically employed by higher-income economies, they are also now used more frequently in economies with less administrative and fiscal capacity to implement them.