26.09.2024 • 27/2024
Services stabilise the East German economy – Implications of the Joint Economic Forecast Autumn 2024 and of Länder data from recent publications of the Statistical Offices
In 2024, the East German economy is expected to grow by 0.2%, while it will decline by 0.1% in Germany as a whole. The Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) is forecasting an East German growth rate of 0.7% in 2025, and a rate of 1.2% in 2026. According to the IWH forecast, the unemployment rate in eastern Germany is likely to be 7.5% in 2024 as well as 2025 and 7.2% in 2026.
Oliver Holtemöller
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26.09.2024 • 26/2024
Joint Economic Forecast 2/2024: German economy in transition ‒ weak momentum, low potential growth
The Joint Economic Forecast Project Group forecasts a 0.1% decline in Germany's gross domestic product in 2024. Looking further ahead, the institutes expect a weak recovery with growth of 0.8% (2025) and 1.3% (2026). Compared to the spring forecast, this represents a down-ward revision of 0.2 (2024) and 0.6 (2025) percentage points. “In addition to the economic downturn, the German economy is also being weighed down by structural change,” says Dr Geraldine Dany-Knedlik, head of Forecasting and Economic Policy at the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW Berlin). “Decarbonisation, digitalisation, and demographic change – alongside stronger competition with companies from China – have triggered structural adjustment processes that are dampening the long-term growth prospects of the German economy.”
Oliver Holtemöller
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05.09.2024 • 24/2024
Moderate economic growth in the world – German economy continues to stagnate
Production in Germany has been stagnating for two years and is roughly the same level as shortly before the outbreak of the pandemic. Investment of firms is particularly weak. An important reason for fewer investments is the sluggish export business. Private households are also holding back on consumption, mainly due to concerns about the longer-term economic outlook. According to the autumn forecast of the Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), gross domestic product in Germany is likely to stagnate in 2024 and to increase by 1.0% in 2025 as capacity utilisation normalises. In June, the IWH forecast had still assumed a growth of 0.3% in 2024 and of 1.5% in 2025. In East Germany, gross domestic product will increase by 0.3% this year and by 0.9% in 2025.
Oliver Holtemöller
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Media Response
Media Response June 2025 Oliver Holtemöller: Eine Frage der Ideologie in: nd DER TAG, 28.06.2025 Steffen Müller: 13,90 Euro pro Stunde - aber zu welchem Preis? in: FOCUS Online,…
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Courses
Courses Courses are organised in coordination with partner institutions within the Central-German Doctoral Program Economics (CGDE) network. IWH organises First-Year Courses in…
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Media Response Archive 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 December 2021 IWH: Ausblick auf Wirtschaftsjahr 2022 in Sachsen mit Bezug auf IWH-Prognose zu Ostdeutschland: "Warum Sachsens…
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People
People Doctoral Students PhD Representatives Alumni Supervisors Lecturers Coordinators Doctoral Students Afroza Alam (Supervisor: Reint Gropp ) Annika Backes (Supervisors: Simon…
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24.06.2024 • 21/2024
Ausgebildet in Halle für Top-Arbeitgeber weltweit
Das Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung Halle (IWH) hat heute bekanntgegeben, dass drei seiner bisherigen Doktoranden bedeutende Positionen in angesehenen internationalen Forschungseinrichtungen erlangt haben.
Michael Koetter
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“Best Research Environment 2024”: IWH Financial Markets Department among the winning teams The IWH Financial Markets Department is one of ten scientific teams to receive the…
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13.06.2024 • 17/2024
German economy still on the defensive – but first signs of an end to the downturn
In the first half of 2024, signs of an economic recovery are increasing. Production, however, is likely to expand only modestly during summer. From the autumn, the recovery is likely to pick up speed with higher real incomes and a modest increase in exports. In its summer forecast, the Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) expects gross domestic product to expand by 0.3% in 2024 and by 1.5% in 2025 (East Germany: 0.6% and 1.4%). In March, the IWH forecast had assumed a growth of 0.2% in 2024 and of 1.5% in 2025.
Oliver Holtemöller
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