Conditional Macroeconomic Survey Forecasts: Revisions and Errors
Alexander Glas, Katja Heinisch
Journal of International Money and Finance,
November
2023
Abstract
Using data from the European Central Bank's Survey of Professional Forecasters and ECB/Eurosystem staff projections, we analyze the role of ex-ante conditioning variables for macroeconomic forecasts. In particular, we test to which extent the updating and ex-post performance of predictions for inflation, real GDP growth and unemployment are related to beliefs about future oil prices, exchange rates, interest rates and wage growth. While oil price and exchange rate predictions are updated more frequently than macroeconomic forecasts, the opposite is true for interest rate and wage growth expectations. Beliefs about future inflation are closely associated with oil price expectations, whereas expected interest rates are related to predictions of output growth and unemployment. Exchange rate predictions also matter for macroeconomic forecasts, albeit less so than the other variables. With regard to forecast errors, wage growth and GDP growth closely comove, but only during the period when interest rates are at the effective zero lower bound.
Read article
IWH Macrometer
IWH Macrometer Macroeconomic Database for the German Länder, East and West Germany The data offered by the IWH Macrometer consists of two parts: (1) interactive macro data and (2)…
See page
Research Data Centre
Research Data Centre The IWH Research Data Centre provides external scientists with data for non-commercial research. The research data centre of the IWH was accredited by RatSWD…
See page
Cultural Norms and Corporate Fraud: Evidence from the Volkswagen Scandal
Iftekhar Hasan, Felix Noth, Lena Tonzer
Journal of Corporate Finance,
October
2023
Abstract
We examine a corporate governance role of local culture via its impact on consumer behavior following corporate scandals. Our proxy for culture is the presence of local Protestantism. Exploiting the unexpected nature of the Volkswagen (VW) diesel scandal in September 2015, we show that new registrations of VW cars decline significantly in German counties with a Protestant majority following the VW scandal. Further survey evidence shows that, compared to Catholics, Protestants respond significantly more negatively to fraud but not to environmental issues. Our findings suggest that the enforcement culture in Protestantism facilitates penalizing corporate fraud.
Read article
Charts
Info Graphs Sometimes pictures say more than a thousand words. Therefore, we selected a few graphs to present our main topics visually. If you should have any questions or would…
See page
Wage and Employment Effects of Insolvencies
Wage and employment effects of bankruptcies Although the consequences of bankruptcies for affected employees are frequently debated in the public (e.g. due to the bankruptcy of…
See page
Macro Data Download
Macro Data Download On this page, you will find long time series of macroeconomic data provided by IWH for download. Please note that most files come with labels and legends in…
See page
Firm Surveys
Firm Surveys Since 1993, IWH has conducted regular surveys among a fixed group of firms in the manufacturing and construction industry to collect individual data on economic…
See page
IWH FDI Micro Database
IWH FDI Micro Database The IWH FDI Micro Database (FDI = Foreign Direct Investment) comprises a total population of affiliates of multinational enterprises (MNEs) in selected…
See page
IWH Construction Survey
IWH Construction Survey From 1993 until the first quarter of 2017, the IWH conducted regular surveys among companies. The results of these surveys could be used to promptly…
See page
