05.09.2019 • 18/2019
Downturn in Germany continues
Trade disputes are causing international trade in goods to decline this year. The manufacturing industry in Germany is particularly affected by this. However, a robust labour market is supporting the economy. According to IWH autumn economic forecast, German gross domestic product (GDP) will increase by 0.5% in 2019. At 1%, output growth in East Germany is likely to be significantly higher than in West Germany.
Oliver Holtemöller
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Does Extended Unemployment Benefit Duration Ameliorate the Negative Employment Effects of Job Loss?
Daniel Fackler, Jens Stegmaier, Eva Weigt
Labour Economics,
Vol. 59,
2019
Abstract
We study the effect of job displacement due to bankruptcies on earnings and employment prospects of displaced workers and analyse whether extended potential unemployment benefit duration (PBD) ameliorates the negative consequences of job loss. Using German administrative linked employer-employee data, we find that job loss has long-lasting negative effects on earnings and employment. Displaced workers also more often end up in irregular employment relationships (part-time, marginal part-time employment, and temporary agency work) than their non-displaced counterparts. Applying a regression discontinuity approach that exploits a three months PBD extension at the age threshold of 50 we find hardly any effects of longer PBD on labour market outcomes of displaced workers.
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Power Generation and Structural Change: Quantifying Economic Effects of the Coal Phase-out in Germany
Christoph Schult, Katja Heinisch, Oliver Holtemöller
Abstract
In the fight against global warming, the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions is a major objective. In particular, a decrease in electricity generation by coal could contribute to reducing CO2 emissions. We study potential economic consequences of a coal phase-out in Germany, using a multi-region dynamic general equilibrium model. Four regional phase-out scenarios before the end of 2040 are simulated. We find that the worst case phase-out scenario would lead to an increase in the aggregate unemployment rate by about 0.13 [0.09 minimum; 0.18 maximum] percentage points from 2020 to 2040. The effect on regional unemployment rates varies between 0.18 [0.13; 0.22] and 1.07 [1.00; 1.13] percentage points in the lignite regions. A faster coal phase-out can lead to a faster recovery. The coal phase-out leads to migration from German lignite regions to German non-lignite regions and reduces the labour force in the lignite regions by 10,100 [6,300; 12,300] people by 2040. A coal phase-out until 2035 is not worse in terms of welfare, consumption and employment compared to a coal-exit until 2040
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East Germany Three Decades After the Wall Came Down: What has Been Achieved and What Should Economic Policy Do?
Reint E. Gropp, Gerhard Heimpold
Wirtschaftsdienst,
Vol. 99 (7),
2019
Abstract
Dass Ostdeutschland bei der Verringerung der Ost-West-Produktivitätslücke nur noch wenig vorankommt, hat nicht nur mit fehlenden Konzernzentralen zu tun. Eine Produktivitätslücke existiert in Betrieben aller Größen. Sie ist im städtischen Raum größer als im ländlichen. Der Fachkräftemangel ist der neue Entwicklungsengpass. Um gegenzusteuern, sollte die Wirtschaftspolitik nicht durch zusätzliche Subventionen, die an die Arbeitsplatzschaffung und -erhaltung gebunden sind, den Produktivitätsdruck abschwächen. Die Produktivitätspotenziale der ostdeutschen Städte gilt es zu heben. Fachkräftesicherung verlangt qualifizierte Zuwanderung mit einer entsprechenden Willkommenskultur in Ostdeutschland.
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09.07.2019 • 17/2019
IWH rated "very good" and recommended for further funding
The Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) – Member of the Leibniz Association has been providing remarkable research and policy advice services for many years and should therefore continue to receive joint basic funding by Federal government and the Länder in future. This was the conclusion of today's meeting of the Senate of the Leibniz Association. At the end of the evaluation, the Institute was rated "very good" in all areas.
Reint E. Gropp
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Firm-level Employment, Labour Market Reforms, and Bank Distress
Ralph Setzer, Moritz Stieglitz
Abstract
We explore the interaction between labour market reforms and financial frictions. Our study combines a new cross-country reform database on labour market reforms with matched firm-bank data for nine euro area countries over the period 1999 to 2013. While we find that labour market reforms are overall effective in increasing employment, restricted access to bank credit can undo up to half of long-term employment gains at the firm-level. Entrepreneurs without sufficient access to credit cannot reap the full benefits of more flexible employment regulation.
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13.06.2019 • 12/2019
Weak foreign demand – economic downturn in Germany
In the summer of 2019, uncertainty due to ongoing trade disputes weighs on the global economy. The export-oriented German economy is particularly affected. According to IWH summer economic forecast, gross domestic product is expected to increase by only 0.5% in 2019; the forecast for East Germany is 0.8%. The German labour market remains largely robust despite the economic downturn.
Oliver Holtemöller
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The Economic Impact of Changes in Local Bank Presence
Iftekhar Hasan, Krzysztof Jackowicz, Oskar Kowalewski, Łukasz Kozłowski
Regional Studies,
Vol. 53 (5),
2019
Abstract
This study analyzes the economic consequences of changes in the local bank presence. Using a unique data set of banks, firms and counties in Poland over the period 2009–14, it is shown that changes strengthening the relationship banking model are associated with local labour market improvements and easier small and medium-sized enterprise access to bank debt. However, only the appearance of new, more aggressive owners of large commercial banks stimulates new firm creation.
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Price-cost Margin and Bargaining Power in the European Union
Ana Cristina Soares
IWH-CompNet Discussion Papers,
No. 4,
2019
Abstract
Using firm-level data between 2004 and 2012 for eleven countries of the European Union (EU), we document the size of product and labour market imperfections within narrowly defined sectors including services which are virtually undocumented. Our findings suggest that perfect competition in both product and labour markets is widely rejected. Levels of the price-cost margin and union bargaining power tend to be higher in some service sectors depicting however substantial heterogeneity. Dispersion within sector and across countries tends to be higher in some services sectors assuming a less tradable nature which suggests that the Single Market integration is partial particularly relaxing the assumption of perfect competition in the labour market. We report also figures for the aggregate economy and show that Eastern countries tend to depict lower product and labour market imperfections compared to other countries in the EU. Also, we provide evidence in favour of a very limited adjustment of both product and labour market imperfections following the international and financial crisis.
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04.04.2019 • 10/2019
Service providers in Berlin give boost to East German economy – implications of the Joint Economic Forecast and of official data on the East German economy in 2018
In its spring report, the Joint Economic Forecast group states that the upturn in Germany came to an end in the second half of 2018, mainly because the manufacturing sector is weakening due to a slowing international economy and to problems in the automotive industry. Accordingly, in places such as Saxony (1.2%), Thuringia (0.5%), and Saxony-Anhalt (0.9%), where manufacturing plays a particularly important role, gross domestic product (GDP) grew less than in Germany as a whole (1.4%).
Oliver Holtemöller
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