13.06.2024 • 17/2024
German economy still on the defensive – but first signs of an end to the downturn
In the first half of 2024, signs of an economic recovery are increasing. Production, however, is likely to expand only modestly during summer. From the autumn, the recovery is likely to pick up speed with higher real incomes and a modest increase in exports. In its summer forecast, the Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) expects gross domestic product to expand by 0.3% in 2024 and by 1.5% in 2025 (East Germany: 0.6% and 1.4%). In March, the IWH forecast had assumed a growth of 0.2% in 2024 and of 1.5% in 2025.
Oliver Holtemöller
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Konjunktur aktuell: Deutsche Wirtschaft noch in der Defensive – aber erste Anzeichen für ein Ende des Abschwungs
Konjunktur aktuell,
No. 2,
2024
Abstract
Die Aussichten für die internationale Konjunktur bleiben leicht eingetrübt. In Europa setzt sich die zaghafte Erholung fort. In Deutschland vermehren sich die Anzeichen für eine konjunkturelle Besserung. Alles in allem wird die Produktion im Sommerhalbjahr wohl nur verhalten ausgeweitet, doch ab Herbst dürfte die Belebung Fahrt aufnehmen. Das Bruttoinlandsprodukt dürfte im Jahr 2024 um 0,3% expandieren, für 2025 prognostiziert das IWH einen Zuwachs um 1,5%.
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Economic recovery in Germany – but structural problems and US trade policy weigh on the economy If the US does not escalate its trade conflicts further, production in Germany…
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IWH Summer Forecast 2025 Economic recovery in Germany – but structural problems and US trade policy weigh on the economy June 12, 2025 The German economy has picked up somewhat in…
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Risky Oil: It's All in the Tails
Christiane Baumeister, Florian Huber, Massimiliano Marcellino
NBER Working Paper,
No. 32524,
2024
Abstract
The substantial fluctuations in oil prices in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine have highlighted the importance of tail events in the global market for crude oil which call for careful risk assessment. In this paper we focus on forecasting tail risks in the oil market by setting up a general empirical framework that allows for flexible predictive distributions of oil prices that can depart from normality. This model, based on Bayesian additive regression trees, remains agnostic on the functional form of the conditional mean relations and assumes that the shocks are driven by a stochastic volatility model. We show that our nonparametric approach improves in terms of tail forecasts upon three competing models: quantile regressions commonly used for studying tail events, the Bayesian VAR with stochastic volatility, and the simple random walk. We illustrate the practical relevance of our new approach by tracking the evolution of predictive densities during three recent economic and geopolitical crisis episodes, by developing consumer and producer distress indices that signal the build-up of upside and downside price risk, and by conducting a risk scenario analysis for 2024.
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