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Research for the Labour Market of Tomorrow
Rafael Barth
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 2,
2025
Abstract
The economic transformation is visibly reshaping the world of work. At the Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), the Structural Change and Productivity Department will intensify its analysis of these developments – and is evolving in the process. A high-profile conference with an unusual format recently provided important momentum.
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12.06.2025 • 19/2025
Economic recovery in Germany – but structural problems and US trade policy weigh on the economy
The German economy has picked up somewhat in the first half of 2025. This was helped by the temporary increase in demand from the US in anticipation of higher tariffs. If the US does not escalate its trade conflicts further, production in Germany according to the summer forecast of the Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) is likely to increase a bit (by 0.4%) in 2025, after two years of decline. In March, the IWH economists were forecasting growth of 0.1% for the current year. Growth of 1.1% is forecast for the year 2026. Similar expansion rates are to be expected for East Germany.
Oliver Holtemöller
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Centre for Evidence-based Policy Advice
Centre for Evidence-based Policy Advice (IWH-CEP) The Centre for Evidence-based Policy Advice (IWH-CEP) of the IWH was founded in 2014. It is a platform that bundles and…
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IWH Subsidy Database
IWH Subsidy Databse The microdatabase currently comprises nine data sets on direct business subsidy programmes in Germany. The programme statistics kept by the project sponsors…
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Assumption Errors and Forecast Accuracy: A Partial Linear Instrumental Variable and Double Machine Learning Approach
Katja Heinisch, Fabio Scaramella, Christoph Schult
IWH Discussion Papers,
No. 6,
2025
Abstract
Accurate macroeconomic forecasts are essential for effective policy decisions, yet their precision depends on the accuracy of the underlying assumptions. This paper examines the extent to which assumption errors affect forecast accuracy, introducing the average squared assumption error (ASAE) as a valid instrument to address endogeneity. Using double/debiased machine learning (DML) techniques and partial linear instrumental variable (PLIV) models, we analyze GDP growth forecasts for Germany, conditioning on key exogenous variables such as oil price, exchange rate, and world trade. We find that traditional ordinary least squares (OLS) techniques systematically underestimate the influence of assumption errors, particularly with respect to world trade, while DML effectively mitigates endogeneity, reduces multicollinearity, and captures nonlinearities in the data. However, the effect of oil price assumption errors on GDP forecast errors remains ambiguous. These results underscore the importance of advanced econometric tools to improve the evaluation of macroeconomic forecasts.
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Board Announcements
Board Announcements Apr 27, 2026: Evaluation Report Nov 06, 2025: Evaluation 2025: feedback Nov 03, 2025: Evaluation 2025: important information Oct 02, 2025: Second Trial…
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IWH-CompNet 5th FINPRO
IWH-CompNet 5th Finance and Productivity Conference 24-25 April, 2026 - Tokyo, Japan The IWH-CompNet 5th Finance and Productivity Conference (FINPRO5), held on 24–25 April 2026 at…
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Research Clusters
Three Research Clusters Each IWH research group is assigned to a topic-oriented research cluster. The clusters are not separate organisational units, but rather bundle the…
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10.04.2025 • 13/2025
Joint Economic Forecast 1/2025: Geopolitical turn intensifies crisis – structural reforms even more urgent
The German economy will continue to tread water in 2025. In their spring report, the leading economic research institutes forecast an increase in gross domestic product of just 0.1% for the current year. For 2026, the institutes expect gross domestic product to increase by 1.3%. In the short term, the new US trade policy and economic policy uncertainty are weighing on the German economy. The additional scope for public debt should gradually have an expansionary effect, but threatens to crowd out private consumption and private investment.
Oliver Holtemöller
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