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Robots, Occupations, and Worker Age: A Production-unit Analysis of Employment

Liuchun Deng, Steffen Müller, Verena Plümpe, Jens Stegmaier
European Economic Review, Vol. 170 (November), 2024
Abstract

We analyse the impact of robot adoption on employment composition using novel micro data on robot use in German manufacturing plants linked with social security records and data on job tasks. Our task-based model predicts more favourable employment effects for the least routine-task intensive occupations and for young workers, with the latter being better at adapting to change. An event-study analysis of robot adoption confirms both predictions. We do not find adverse employment effects for any occupational or age group, but churning among low-skilled workers rises sharply. We conclude that the displacement effect of robots is occupation biased but age neutral, whereas the reinstatement effect is age biased and benefits young workers most.

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Courses

Courses Courses are organised in coordination with partner institutions within the Central-German Doctoral Program Economics (CGDE) network. IWH organises First-Year Courses in…

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Teaching

Teaching Within the framework of its cooperations with both German and foreign universities IWH researchers are actively committed to teaching by offering academic courses. These…

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Step by Step ‒ A Quarterly Evaluation of EU Commission's GDP Forecasts

Katja Heinisch
IWH Discussion Papers, No. 22, 2024
published in: Journal of Forecasting
Abstract

The European Commission’s growth forecasts play a crucial role in shaping policies and provide a benchmark for many (national) forecasters. The annual forecasts are built on quarterly estimates, which do not receive much attention and are hardly known. Therefore, this paper provides a comprehensive analysis of multi-period ahead quarterly GDP growth forecasts for the European Union (EU), euro area, and several EU member states with respect to first-release and current-release data. Forecast revisions and forecast errors are analyzed, and the results show that the forecasts are not systematically biased. However, GDP forecasts for several member states tend to be overestimated at short-time horizons. Furthermore, the final forecast revision in the current quarter is generally downward biased for almost all countries. Overall, the differences in mean forecast errors are minor when using real-time data or pseudo-real-time data and these differences do not significantly impact the overall assessment of the forecasts’ quality. Additionally, the forecast performance varies across countries, with smaller countries and Central and Eastern European countries (CEECs) experiencing larger forecast errors. The paper provides evidence that there is still potential for improvement in forecasting techniques both for nowcasts but also forecasts up to eight quarters ahead. In the latter case, the performance of the mean forecast tends to be superior for many countries.

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Department Profiles

Research Profiles of the IWH Departments All doctoral students are allocated to one of the four research departments (Financial Markets – Laws, Regulations and Factor Markets –…

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Past Events

Past Events 14. CompNet Annual Conference (Vilnius, 25-26 September 2025) The 14th CompNet Annual Conference, co-hosted with the Bank of Lithuania, took place on 25–26 September…

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Other Output

Books The Economics of Firm Productivity - Concepts, Tools and Evidence by Carlo Altomonte, Università Commerciale Luigi Bocconi, Milan & Filippo di Mauro, IWH-Halle and CompNet,…

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HKIMR Seminar Hong Kong

HKIMR Seminar Date: April 11, 2025 @ 10:30 AM Location: Hong Kong Institute for Monetary and Financial Research, Hong Kong Speaker: Filippo di Mauro (Founder and Chairman of…

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8th CompNet Annual Conference

From Micro to Macro: Market Power, Firms’ Heterogeneity and Investment 8th Annual Conference of CompNet, jointly organized with IMF, EIB, ENRI and IWH, March 18-19 2019, European…

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1st CompNet Data User Conference

1st CompNet Data User Conference Since it is well established among researchers of productivity and competitiveness that macro data cannot answer all questions emerging in today's…

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