10.04.2025 • 13/2025
Joint Economic Forecast 1/2025: Geopolitical turn intensifies crisis – structural reforms even more urgent
The German economy will continue to tread water in 2025. In their spring report, the leading economic research institutes forecast an increase in gross domestic product of just 0.1% for the current year. For 2026, the institutes expect gross domestic product to increase by 1.3%. In the short term, the new US trade policy and economic policy uncertainty are weighing on the German economy. The additional scope for public debt should gradually have an expansionary effect, but threatens to crowd out private consumption and private investment.
Oliver Holtemöller
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Forthcoming
Forthcoming CompNet Events 15th Annual IWH-CompNet Conference October 22-23, 2026 European Commission, Brussels, Belgium The 15th Annual IWH-CompNet Conference, jointly organised…
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Economic Outlook
Joint Economic Forecast Spring 2026 Energy Price Shock Dampens Recovery – Inflation Rises April 1, 2026 Although the leading economic research institutes consider the German…
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Halle Institute for Economic Research
Energy Price Shock Dampens Recovery – Inflation Rises Although the leading economic research institutes, in their joint spring forecast, consider the German economy to be in a…
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Research Articles
Research Articles Explore cutting-edge research based on CompNet’s micro-aggregated firm-level data and related analytical tools. These articles cover empirical and theoretical…
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13.03.2025 • 10/2025
A turning point for the German economy?
The international political environment has fundamentally changed with looming trade wars and a deteriorating security situation in Europe. The leading parties in Germany are setting the stage for debt-financed additional defence tasks with far-reaching changes to the debt brake. This entails major risks for the German economy, but also opportunities. Meanwhile, the economy continues to be in a downturn. According to the spring forecast of the Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), gross domestic product (GDP) in 2025 is likely to be roughly the same as in the previous year, and it will not increase significantly until 2026, partly because uncertainty about German economic policy is likely to decrease after the new government is established, meaning that the savings rate of private households will fall again somewhat and the debt-financed additional government spending will gradually have an impact on demand. The IWH economists are forecasting an increase in GDP of 0.1% for 2025. In December, they were still forecasting growth of 0.4% for 2025. The outlook is similar for East Germany, where production is likely to have increased slightly in 2024, unlike in Germany as a whole.
Oliver Holtemöller
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Konjunktur aktuell: Zeitenwende für die deutsche Wirtschaft?
Konjunktur aktuell,
No. 1,
2025
Abstract
Die Ankündigungen und Entscheidungen der neuen US-Regierung um den Russland-Ukraine-Konflikt und die Zollpolitik haben weltweit zu hoher Unsicherheit geführt. Im Euroraum bleibt die Konjunktur schwach. Auch die deutsche Konjunktur ist weiter im Abschwung. Das Bruttoinlandsprodukt dürfte im Jahr 2025 um 0,1% und im Jahr darauf um 1,3% zunehmen.
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IWH-CompNet 1st ProdTool Workshop
IWH-CompNet 1st ProdTool Workshop 26-27 February, 2026 - Vienna, Austria The IWH-CompNet 1st ProdTool Workshop (26–27 February 2026, Vienna) successfully brought together experts,…
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Output
IWH-CompNet 1st ProdTool Workshop 26-27 February, 2026 - Vienna, Austria The IWH-CompNet 1st ProdTool Workshop (26–27 February 2026, Vienna) successfully brought together experts,…
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TSI Concluding Conference – March 17-18, 2025, Berlin
TSI Concluding Conference 17-18 March 2025 in Berlin The TSI Concluding Conference , held in Berlin on March 17–18, 2025 , brought together key stakeholders from across the TSI…
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