Is Risk the Fuel of the Business Cycle? Financial Frictions and Oil Market Disturbances
Christoph Schult
IWH Discussion Papers,
No. 4,
2024
Abstract
I estimate a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model for the United States that incorporates oil market shocks and risk shocks working through credit market frictions. The findings of this analysis indicate that risk shocks play a crucial role during the Great Recession and the Dot-Com bubble but not during other economic downturns. Credit market frictions do not amplify persistent oil market shocks. This result holds as long as entry and exit rates of entrepreneurs are independent of the business cycle.
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PhD Graduates Financial Markets
PhD Graduates of the Department of Financial Markets Eleonora Sfrappini: "Four Essays on Banking, Climate Risks and Financial Regulation" (2024) Willam McShane: "The Competitive…
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Research Clusters
Three Research Clusters Research Cluster "Economic Dynamics and Stability" Research Questions This cluster focuses on empirical analyses of macroeconomic dynamics and stability.…
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Guiding Theme and Research Profile
Tasks of the IWH Guided by its mission statement , the IWH places the understanding of the determinants of long term growth processes at the centre of the research agenda. Long…
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Organisation of Research
Tasks of the IWH Guided by its mission statement , the IWH places the understanding of the determinants of long term growth processes at the centre of the research agenda. Long…
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Global Banks and Synthetic Funding: The Benefits of Foreign Relatives
Fernando Eguren-Martin, Matias Ossandon Busch, Dennis Reinhardt
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking,
No. 1,
2024
Abstract
Abstract This paper examines the effect of dislocations in foreign currency (FX) swap markets ("CIP deviations") on bank lending. Using data from UK banks we show that when the cost of obtaining swap-based funds in a particular foreign currency increases, banks reduce the supply of cross-border credit in that currency. This effect is increasing in the degree of banks' reliance on swap-based FX funding. Access to foreign relatives matters as banks employ internal capital markets to shield their cross-border FX lending supply from the described channel. Partial substitution occurs from banks outside the UK not affected by changes in synthetic funding costs.
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IWH-DPE Call for Applications
IWH-DPE Call for Applications About the IWH Doctoral Programme in Economics The IWH Doctoral Programme in Economics (IWH-DPE) is a rigorous structured four-year PhD programme with…
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IWH EXplore
IWH EXplore Competitive Funding for Research Projects with External Involvement at IWH IWH EXplore gives scientists the opportunity to acquire supplemental funding, in addition to…
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Does IFRS Information on Tax Loss Carryforwards and Negative Performance Improve Predictions of Earnings and Cash Flows?
Sandra Dreher, Sebastian Eichfelder, Felix Noth
Journal of Business Economics,
January
2024
Abstract
We analyze the usefulness of accounting information on tax loss carryforwards and negative performance to predict earnings and cash flows. We use hand-collected information on tax loss carryforwards and corresponding deferred taxes from the International Financial Reporting Standards tax footnotes for listed firms from Germany. Our out-of-sample tests show that considering accounting information on tax loss carryforwards does not enhance performance forecasts and typically even worsens predictions. The most likely explanation is model overfitting. Besides, common forecasting approaches that deal with negative performance are prone to prediction errors. We provide a simple empirical specification to account for that problem.
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The Reverse Revolving Door in the Supervision of European Banks
Stefano Colonnello, Michael Koetter, Alex Sclip, Konstantin Wagner
IWH Discussion Papers,
No. 25,
2023
Abstract
We show that around one third of executive directors on the boards of national supervisory authorities (NSA) in European banking have an employment history in the financial industry. The appointment of executives without a finance background associates with negative valuation effects. Appointments of former bankers, in turn, spark positive stock market reactions. This „proximity premium“ of supervised banks is a more likely driver of positive valuation effects than superior financial expertise or intrinsic skills of former executives from the financial industry. Prior to the inception of the European Single Supervisory Mechanism, the presence of former financial industry executives on the board of NSA associates with lower regulatory capital and faster growth of banks, pointing to a more lenient supervisory style.
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