10.09.2002 • 18/2002
Konjunktur aktuell: Aufschwung in Deutschland vertagt
Nach Veröffentlichung der neuesten Quartalsdaten der Volkswirtschaftlichen Gesamtrechnungen hat das IWH seine Konjunkturprognose auf den Prüfstand gestellt und korrigiert. Außerdem wurden die Folgen der Hochwasserkatastrophe auf die gesamtwirtschaftliche Aktivität abgeschätzt.
Während die Flut in Deutschland insgesamt im Großen und Ganzen konjunkturneutral wirken
dürfte, lässt sie die für dieses Jahr bis dahin vorhandenen schwachen Wachstumsaussichten im Ostteil gänzlich schwinden. Bestenfalls kommt es hier zur Stagnation des Bruttoinlandsprodukts. Im nächsten Jahr dagegen wird der öffentliche und private Mitteleinsatz zur Behebung der Flutschäden die Produktion in Ostdeutschland stimulieren.
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16.12.2020 • 26/2020
New wave of infections delays economic recovery in Germany
The lockdown is causing production in Germany to decline at the end of the year. When restrictions will be relaxed again, the recovery is likely to pick up pace only slowly, partly because the temporary reduction in value-added taxes is expiring. In spring, milder temperatures and an increasing portion of the population being vaccinated are likely to support the German economy to expand more strongly. The Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) forecasts that gross domestic product will increase by 4.4% in 2021, following a 5% decline in 2020. In East Germany, both the decline and the recovery will be significantly less pronounced.
Oliver Holtemöller
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18.03.2021 • 9/2021
Economic mobility likely to increase significantly after relaxation – but also number of COVID-19 cases
The relaxation of Corona containment measures from the beginning of March 2021 lead to a significant increase in economic mobility and thus also in personal contacts in Germany. Estimates suggest that the recent relaxations increase economic mobility by more than ten percentage points and the number of new infections and deaths in Germany by 25%. Because both continued lockdowns and relaxations carry significant negative consequences, it is even more important to enable further relaxations through better testing and quarantine strategies and by increasing the pace of vaccination without putting people's health at risk.
Oliver Holtemöller
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24.06.2021 • 17/2021
Loneliness during the pandemic – social isolation increases the likelihood of selfish behaviour
Social distancing as a counter-measure to the COVID-19 pandemic has far-reaching social consequences which have so far hardly been discussed from an economic perspective. This is demonstrated in a study by the Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH). “Experiencing social isolation resulted in the participants in our study making more selfish decisions,” says the author of the study, Sabrina Jeworrek, Assistant Professor at Otto von Guericke University Magdeburg and head of research group in the Department of Structural Change and Productivity at IWH.
Sabrina Jeworrek
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