The Role of Investment Banking for the German Economy: Final Report for Deutsche Bank AG, Frankfurt/Main
Michael Schröder, M. Borell, Reint E. Gropp, Z. Iliewa, L. Jaroszek, G. Lang, S. Schmidt, K. Trela
ZEW-Dokumentationen, Nr. 12-01,
No. 1,
2011
Abstract
The aim of this study is to assess the contributions of investment banking to the economy with a particular focus on the German economy. To this end we analyse both the economic benefits and the costs stemming from investment banking.
The study focuses on investment banks as this part of banking is particularly relevant for financing companies as well as the development and use of specific products to support the needs of private and professional clients. The assessment of benefits and costs of investment banking has been conducted from a European perspective. Nevertheless there is a focus on the German economy to allow a more detailed analysis of certain aspects as for example the use of derivatives by German companies, the success of M&As in Germany or the effect of securitization on loan supply and GDP in Germany. For comparison purposes other European countries and also the U.S. have been taken into account.
The last financial crisis has shown the negative impacts of banks on the financial system and the whole economy. In a study on the contribution of investment banks to systemic risk we quantify the negative side of the investment banking business.
In the last part of the study we assess how the effects of regulatory changes on investment banking. All important changes in banking and capital market regulation are taken into account such as Basel III, additional capital requirements for systemically important financial institutions, regulation of OTC derivatives and specific taxes.
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What Might Central Banks Lose or Gain in Case of Euro Adoption – A GARCH-Analysis of Money Market Rates for Sweden, Denmark and the UK
Herbert S. Buscher, Hubert Gabrisch
IWH Discussion Papers,
No. 9,
2011
Abstract
This study deals with the question whether the central banks of Sweden, Denmark and the UK can really influence short-term money markets and thus, would lose this influence in case of Euro adoption. We use a GARCH-M-GED model with daily money market rates. The model reveals the co-movement between the Euribor and the shortterm interest rates in these three countries. A high degree of co-movement might be seen as an argument for a weak impact of the central bank on its money markets. But this argument might only hold for tranquil times. Our approach reveals, in addition, whether there is a specific reaction of the money markets in turbulent times. Our finding is that the policy of the European Central Bank (ECB) has indeed a significant impact on the three money market rates, and there is no specific benefit for these countries to stay outside the Euro area. However, the GARCH-M-GED model further reveals risk divergence and unstable volatilities of risk in the case of adverse monetary shocks to the economy for Sweden and Denmark, compared to the Euro area. We conclude that the danger of adverse monetary developments cannot be addressed by a common monetary
policy for these both countries, and this can be seen as an argument to stay outside the Euro area.
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The Role of Securitization in Bank Liquidity and Funding Management
Elena Loutskina
Journal of Financial Economics,
No. 3,
2011
Abstract
This paper studies the role of securitization in bank management. I propose a new index of “bank loan portfolio liquidity” which can be thought of as a weighted average of the potential to securitize loans of a given type, where the weights reflect the composition of a bank loan portfolio. I use this new index to show that by allowing banks to convert illiquid loans into liquid funds, securitization reduces banks' holdings of liquid securities and increases their lending ability. Furthermore, securitization provides banks with an additional source of funding and makes bank lending less sensitive to cost of funds shocks. By extension, the securitization weakens the ability of the monetary authority to affect banks' lending activity but makes banks more susceptible to liquidity and funding crisis when the securitization market is shut down.
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Informed and Uninformed Investment in Housing: The Downside of Diversification
Elena Loutskina, Philip E. Strahan
Review of Financial Studies,
No. 5,
2011
Abstract
Mortgage lenders that concentrate in a few markets invest more in information collection than diversified lenders. Concentrated lenders focus on the information-intensive jumbo market and on high-risk borrowers. They are better positioned to price risks and, thus, ration credit less. Adverse selection, however, leads to higher retention of mortgages relative to diversified lenders. Finally, concentrated lenders have higher profits than diversified lenders, their profits vary less systematically, and their stock prices fell less during the 2007—2008 credit crisis. The results imply that geographic diversification led to a decline in screening by lenders, which likely played a role in the 2007–2008 crisis.
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Do Banks Benefit from Internationalization? Revisiting the Market Power-Risk Nexus
Claudia M. Buch, C. T. Koch, Michael Koetter
Abstract
Recent developments on international financial markets have called the benefits of
bank globalization into question. Large, internationally active banks have
acquired substantial market power, and international activities have not
necessarily made banks less risky. Yet, surprisingly little is known about the
actual link between bank internationalization, bank risk, and market power.
Analyzing this link is the purpose of this paper. We jointly estimate the
determinants of risk and market power of banks, and we analyze the effects of
changes in terms of the number of foreign countries (the extensive margin) and
the volume of foreign assets (the intensive margin). Our paper has four main
findings. First, there is a strong negative feedback effect between risk and market
power. Second, banks with higher shares of foreign assets, in particular those held
through foreign branches, have higher market power at home. Third, holding
assets in a large number of foreign countries tends to increase bank risk. Fourth,
the impact of internationalization differs across banks from different banking
groups and of different size.
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Bank Credit Standards, Demand, Pro-cyclicality and the Business Cycle: A Comment
Á. Maddaloni, J. L. Peydró Alcalde, J. Suárez, Reint E. Gropp
Moneda y crédito,
No. 230,
2010
Abstract
We analyze the determinants fo standards and demand for loans to firms and house-holds over the last business cycle using the comprehensive and confidential Bank Lending Survery from the Euro area. There is significant variation of standards and demand over the cycle. Standards for business loans vary more during the business cycle than the lending standards for households, whereas credit demand from households varies more than demand from firms. Lending standards vary mainly due to charges in perception of borrower risk, bank balance sheet positions and competitive pressures. In particular, we find that higher GDP growth softens lending standards for all loans, i. e. lending standards are pro-cyclical. However, we also find pro-cyclicality in credit demand.
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Margins of international banking: Is there a productivity pecking order in banking, too?
Claudia M. Buch
Bundesbank Discussion Paper 12/2009,
2009
Abstract
Modern trade theory emphasizes firm-level productivity differentials to explain
the cross-border activities of non-financial firms. This study tests whether a
productivity pecking order also determines international banking activities. Using
a novel dataset that contains all German banks’ international activities, we
estimate the ordered probability of a presence abroad (extensive margin) and the
volume of international assets (intensive margin). Methodologically, we enrich the
conventional Heckman selection model to account for the self-selection of banks
into different modes of foreign activities using an ordered probit. Four main
findings emerge. First, similar to results for non-financial firms, a productivity
pecking order drives bank internationalization. Second, only a few non-financial
firms engage in international trade, but many banks hold international assets, and
only a few large banks engage in foreign direct investment. Third, in addition to
productivity, risk factors matter for international banking. Fourth, gravity-type
variables have an important impact on international banking activities.
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Book Review on: African Development Bank Group, Enhancing Development in Africa – Public Private Partnerships, 2002, Valencia: Pressgroup Holdings Europe
Tobias Knedlik
African Development Perspectives Yearbook: Private and Public Sectors: Towards a Balance,
2004
Abstract
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Securitization and the Declining Impact of Bank Finance on Loan Supply: Evidence from Mortgage Originations
Elena Loutskina, Philip E. Strahan
Journal of Finance,
No. 2,
2009
Abstract
Low‐cost deposits and increased balance sheet liquidity raise banks' supply of illiquid loans more than loans easily sold or securitized. We exploit the inability of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to purchase jumbo mortgages to identify an exogenous change in liquidity. The volume of jumbo mortgage originations relative to nonjumbo originations increases with bank holdings of liquid assets and decreases with bank deposit costs. This result suggests that the increasing depth of the mortgage secondary market fostered by securitization has reduced the effect of lender's financial condition on credit supply.
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Parenting Benefit – A New Risk for Companies
Nicole Nulsch, Henry Dannenberg
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 7,
2008
Abstract
Mit dem zum 1. Januar 2007 neu eingeführten Elterngeld verfolgt der Gesetzgeber unter anderem das Ziel, mehr Väter für eine Elternzeit zu begeistern. Bislang wurden die Auswirkungen des Elterngelds insbesondere aus familienpolitischer Perspektive betrachtet. Ziel dieses Beitrags ist es jedoch, die unternehmenspolitischen Folgen des Elterngelds zu untersuchen.
Die Entwicklung der Elterngeldanträge im Jahr 2007 deutet darauf hin, dass zunehmend mehr Väter von der Elternzeit Gebrauch machen. Dabei handelt es sich in mehr als der Hälfte der Fälle um berufstätige Väter. Konnten Unternehmen in der Vergangenheit das Risiko, dass eine wichtige Position im Unternehmen für einen längeren Zeitraum aufgrund der Geburt eines Kindes unbesetzt ist, verhältnismäßig einfach dadurch senken, indem ein Mann beschäftigt wurde, wird diese Strategie in Zukunft an Bedeutung verlieren. Es ist zu erwarten, dass dieses veränderte Risikoumfeld einerseits die Karrierechancen der Frauen verbessern und zu einer Verringerung der Lohnlücke zwischen den Geschlechtern beitragen kann. Es ist jedoch auch zu erwarten, dass sich die Risikosituation der Unternehmen insgesamt verschlechtert und bei gegebener Risikotragfähigkeit bisher tragbare Risiken zukünftig nicht mehr eingegangen werden können, was sich negativ auf die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung auswirken könnte.
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