25.09.2025 • 29/2025
Fiscal policy will stimulate the East German economy next year – Economic Forecast Fall 2025 for the East German economy
In 2025, the economy in East Germany, as in Germany as a whole, is likely to do little more than stagnate. In the coming year, fiscal policy measures will stimulate the economy, but their effects are likely to be somewhat weaker than in Germany as a whole. The Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) expects the expansion rate of the East German economy in 2025 to be at 0.3%, slightly higher than that of Germany as a whole (0.2%). In both following years, it will rise to 1.1% and 1.2% respectively, which is slightly less than in the west.
Oliver Holtemöller
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10.04.2025 • 13/2025
Joint Economic Forecast 1/2025: Geopolitical turn intensifies crisis – structural reforms even more urgent
The German economy will continue to tread water in 2025. In their spring report, the leading economic research institutes forecast an increase in gross domestic product of just 0.1% for the current year. For 2026, the institutes expect gross domestic product to increase by 1.3%. In the short term, the new US trade policy and economic policy uncertainty are weighing on the German economy. The additional scope for public debt should gradually have an expansionary effect, but threatens to crowd out private consumption and private investment.
Oliver Holtemöller
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Kehrt das Inflationsgespenst zurück? – ein Kommentar
Reint E. Gropp
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 1,
2025
Abstract
Zur Erinnerung: Nach Jahren von Inflationsraten nahe null war die Inflationsrate in Deutschland 2022 nach der Corona-Pandemie und dem Überfall Russlands auf die Ukraine auf knapp 7% gestiegen, ähnlich hoch wie zur Energiekrise 1973/74. Die Gründe dafür sind bekannt: expansive Geld- und Finanzpolitik sowie steigende Energiepreise und Nachholeffekte beim Konsum, verbunden mit Lieferkettenproblemen gerade im Handel mit China. Seitdem haben Zentralbanken wie die EZB eine weiche Landung hingelegt. Ohne große Verluste beim Wachstum (zumindest global gesehen) wurde die Inflationsrate auf 1,6% im September 2024 gedrückt. Ein großer Erfolg?
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