Der Klimawandel wirkt sich zunehmend auf die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung in aller Welt aus. Ärmere Haushalte sind dabei den Auswirkungen des Klimawandels stärker ausgesetzt und verletzlicher, sodass der Klimawandel die Ungleichheit wahrscheinlich noch verstärken wird. Politische Maßnahmen zur Verringerung der Treibhausgasemissionen können eine Verschärfung des Klimawandels verhindern, schaffen aber auch ökonomische Gewinner und Verlierer. In diesem Beitrag werden die kombinierten Auswirkungen des Klimawandels und ausgewählter politischer Maßnahmen zur Verringerung der Treibhausgasemissionen auf die wirtschaftliche Ungleichheit untersucht. Die Bewertung erfolgt anhand von acht Modellen für die integrierte Analyse von Klimawandel und wirtschaftlicher Entwicklung, die von verschiedenen Forscherteams unter Verwendung unterschiedlicher Annahmen und Methoden entwickelt wurden. Die Ergebnisse basieren auf historischen Daten und Zukunftsszenarien für zehn Länder in unterschiedlichen Entwicklungsstadien. Die Umsetzung einer ehrgeizigen Klimapolitik im Einklang mit dem Pariser Abkommen führt demnach zu einer geringeren Ungleichheit in der Zukunft als der Verzicht auf Maßnahmen zur Milderung des Klimawandels, auch wenn die Ungleichheit aufgrund der Kosten für die Reduzierung der Treibhausgasemissionen kurzfristig zunimmt. Die Verwendung der Einnahmen aus der Kohlenstoffbepreisung kann dazu beitragen, die Verteilungseffekte der Klimapolitik zu dämpfen und die Ungleichheit kurzfristig sogar zu verringern. Diese Ergebnisse unterstreichen die Rolle von Ausgleichsmechanismen bei der Gestaltung einer fairen und politisch durchsetzbaren Klimapolitik.

Vietnam, a lower-middle-income economy, faces severe climate risks from heat waves, sea-level rise, and tropical cyclones, which are expected to intensify under ongoing global warming. Using a dynamic general equilibrium model, we analyze economic transition dynamics from 2015 to 2100, incorporating heat-induced labor productivity losses, agricultural land loss, and cyclone-related property damage. We compare a Paris-compatible scenario limiting warming to below 2 °C with a high-emission scenario reaching 4–5 °C. While output and investment impacts remain highly uncertain and statistically indistinguishable across scenarios until 2100, consumption losses are significantly larger under high emissions, mainly driven by heat-related productivity declines, with cyclones contributing most to uncertainty. These findings underscore the importance of considering multiple impact channels beyond output damages in climate-development research.

In this paper, we discuss how environmental damage and emission reduction policies affect the conduct of monetary policy in a two-sector (clean and dirty) dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model. In particular, we examine the optimal response of the interest rate to changes in sectoral inflation due to standard supply shocks, conditional on a given environmental policy. We then compare the performance of a nonstandard monetary rule with sectoral inflation targets to that of a standard Taylor rule. Our main results are as follows: first, the optimal monetary policy is affected by the existence of environmental policy (carbon taxation), as this introduces a distortion in the relative price level between the clean and dirty sectors. Second, compared with a standard Taylor rule targeting aggregate inflation, a monetary policy rule with asymmetric responses to sector-specific inflation allows for reduced volatility in the inflation gap, output gap, and emissions. Third, a nonstandard monetary policy rule allows for a higher level of welfare, so the two goals of welfare maximization and emission minimization can be aligned.

Soil is central to the complex interplay among biodiversity, climate, and society. This paper examines the interconnectedness of soil biodiversity, climate change, and societal impacts, emphasizing the urgent need for integrated solutions. Human-induced biodiversity loss and climate change intensify environmental degradation, threatening human well-being. Soils, rich in biodiversity and vital for ecosystem function regulation, are highly vulnerable to these pressures, affecting nutrient cycling, soil fertility, and resilience. Soil also crucially regulates climate, influencing energy, water cycles, and carbon storage. Yet, climate change poses significant challenges to soil health and carbon dynamics, amplifying global warming. Integrated approaches are essential, including sustainable land management, policy interventions, technological innovations, and societal engagement. Practices like agroforestry and organic farming improve soil health and mitigate climate impacts. Effective policies and governance are crucial for promoting sustainable practices and soil conservation. Recent technologies aid in monitoring soil biodiversity and implementing sustainable land management. Societal engagement, through education and collective action, is vital for environmental stewardship. By prioritizing interdisciplinary research and addressing key frontiers, scientists can advance understanding of the soil biodiversity–climate change–society nexus, informing strategies for environmental sustainability and social equity.

Large emitters reduced their carbon emissions by around 11-15% after the 2015 Paris Agreement (“the Agreement”) relative to public firms that are less in the limelight. We show that this effect is predominantly driven by divestments. Large emitters are 9 p.p. more likely to divest pollutive assets in the post-Agreement period, an increase of over 75%. This divestment effect comes from asset sales and not from closures of pollutive facilities. There is no evidence for increased engagements in other emission reduction activities. Our results indicate significant global asset reallocation effects after the Agreement, shifting emissions out of the limelight.

Die mittelfristige Projektion der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Lage in Deutschland beinhaltet, dass das Wirtschaftswachstum mit 1% pro Jahr in den kommenden sechs Jahren in etwa genauso hoch ausfällt wie in den vergangenen sechs Jahren. Der Staatshaushalt bleibt im Defizit, aber der Schuldenstand geht relativ zum Bruttoinlandsprodukt ab dem Jahr 2024 wieder zurück. Bei diesem Tempo der wirtschaftlichen Expansion werden die Emissionen mittelfristig zwar weiter zurückgehen, aber deutlich langsamer als nötig, um die nationalen Klimaschutzziele zu erreichen.

I show that rising temperatures can detrimentally affect the sovereign creditworthiness of emerging economies. To this end, I collect long-term monthly temperature data of 54 emerging markets. I calculate a country’s temperature deviation from its historical average, which approximates present-day climate change trends. Running regressions from 1994m1 to 2018m12, I find that higher temperature anomalies lower sovereign bond performances (i.e., increase sovereign risk) significantly for countries that are warmer on average and have lower seasonality. The estimated magnitudes suggest that affected countries likely face significant increases in their sovereign borrowing costs if temperatures continue to rise due to climate change. However, results indicate that stronger institutions can make a country more resilient towards temperature shocks, which holds independent of a country’s climate.

We show that local banks provide corporate recovery lending to firms affected by adverse regional macro shocks. Banks that reside in counties unaffected by the natural disaster that we specify as macro shock increase lending to firms inside affected counties by 3%. Firms domiciled in flooded counties, in turn, increase corporate borrowing by 16% if they are connected to banks in unaffected counties. We find no indication that recovery lending entails excessive risk-taking or rent-seeking. However, within the group of shock-exposed banks, those without access to geographically more diversified interbank markets exhibit more credit risk and less equity capital.

I show that rising temperatures can detrimentally affect the sovereign creditworthiness of emerging economies. To this end, I collect long-term monthly temperature data of 54 emerging countries. I calculate a country’s temperature deviation from its historical average, which approximates present day climate change trends. Running regressions from 1994m1-2018m12, I find that higher temperature anomalies lower sovereign bond performances (i.e. increase sovereign risk) significantly for countries that are warmer on average and have lower seasonality. The estimated magnitudes suggest that affected countries likely face significant increases in their sovereign borrowing costs if temperatures continue to rise due to climate change. However, results indicate that stronger institutions can make a country more resilient towards temperature shocks, which holds independent of a country’s climate.