Strategic Communication among Banks
Christian Bittner, Falko Fecht, Melissa Pala, Farzad Saidi
Journal of Financial Economics,
forthcoming
Abstract
Do economic incentives govern information diffusion in markets? Using international banks’ advisory activities in corporate takeovers as their source of private information, we show in supervisory data that banks with closer ties to the target, but not the acquirer, advisor trade profitably in the target’s stock prior to the deal announcement. This trading behavior is associated with a higher premium paid by the acquirer without compromising the deal success. As the incentives of informed traders are aligned only with those of the target shareholders, which are represented by the target advisor, our evidence suggests strategic information transmission among these banks.
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Political Network and Muted Insider Trading
Wei Chen, Xian Gu, Iftekhar Hasan, Hao Zhao, Yun Zhu
Journal of Corporate Finance,
forthcoming
Abstract
This paper examines how political networks influence insider trading in China. Using biographical data to construct chairman–politician social networks, we find that firms with stronger political networks engage in significantly less insider trading. The effect is stronger for non-state-owned enterprises (non-SOEs) and for long-standing or high-ranking connections. The muted trading persists during periods when insiders possess valuable private information, including prior to M&A announcements and major policy events. The evidence suggests that personal political networks function as informal governance mechanisms that discipline managerial opportunism when formal governance through state ownership is absent.
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Fiscal Expansion and Households' Income Inequality Expectations: A Survey Experiment
Melina Ludolph, Giang Nghiem, Lena Tonzer
Review of income and wealth,
Vol. 72 (4),
2026
Abstract
We study how individuals' perceptions of current and future levels of income inequality change during periods of expansionary fiscal policy. In a randomized controlled trial (RCT), we provide information on fiscal expansion to a representative sample of the German population. Our findings reveal that combining a fact-based (numerical) information treatment with a narrative treatment about fiscal expansion plans reduces inequality expectations among respondents who are ex-ante dissatisfied with the government's economic policy. These effects are more pronounced among respondents without a college degree or with low political interest, highlighting the importance of narrative information for individuals who are likely to benefit most from it. We explore potential mechanisms by examining revisions in macro- and micro-level assessments of future economic conditions and find that respondents primarily update their expectations regarding economic growth and individual layoff risk.
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24.09.2026 • 28/2026
Joint Economic Forecast Autumn 2026: Recovery under structural stress – fiscal policy on slippery ground
The German economy has been recovering since the end of 2025. This recovery, although stronger than expected in spring, remains modest. The leading economic research institutes expect GDP growth of 1.3% for the current year and 1.1% and 0.4% for the following two years, respectively. Compared with the spring forecast, the outlook for 2026 has been revised upward by 0.7 and that for 2027 by 0.2 percentage points. “The economy has developed more robustly than expected. However, the recovery rests on a narrow foundation, as high energy prices and structural problems continue to weigh on economic activity,” says Oliver Holtemöller, Head of Macroeconomic Forecasting at the Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH). In the current quarter, low water levels are also temporarily dampening economic activity. The government deficit continues to increase, leading to a growing need for fiscal consolidation.
Oliver Holtemöller
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Socioeconomic Inequality in Life Expectancy: Perception and Policy Demand in the United States and Germany
Lasse J. Jessen, Patrick Nüß, Jens Ruhose
IWH Discussion Papers,
No. 12,
2026
Abstract
Using survey experiments in the United States and Germany with about 12,000 participants, we study perceptions of socioeconomic inequality in life expectancy and policy demand. Respondents overestimate the rich-poor gap in both countries, judging the life expectancy of the rich roughly accurately but placing that of the poor well below its true level. These misperceptions vary little with political orientation or other characteristics. Correcting them shifts concern but leaves policy demand largely unchanged across general, specific, and real-stakes measures. Instead, demand divides politically, sharply in the United States and much less in Germany, consistent with views about the role of government rather than the inequality itself shaping policy demand.
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Time To Close the Socioeconomic Gap in Access to Childcare
Henning Hermes, Philipp Lergetporer, Frauke Peter, Simon Wiederhold
Nature Human Behaviour,
Vol. 10 (7),
2026
Abstract
Socioeconomic inequalities shape who accesses early childcare, even in countries that claim universal provision. This entrenched inequality limits child development, women’s employment and gender equality — but governments have clear tools to close the gap.
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Common Ownership and CEO Social Ties Across Portfolio Firms
Dennis Hutschenreiter, Qianshuo Liu
IWH Discussion Papers,
No. 9,
2026
Abstract
This paper examines whether common institutional ownership is associated with CEO connectedness across firms. We document that higher common ownership between two same-industry firms predicts a greater likelihood that a newly appointed CEO has preexisting social ties to the incumbent CEO of the peer firm. To address endogeneity, we use mergers among institutional investors in a stacked difference-in-differences design. In a hiring-firm-peer panel that carries connection status forward from the most recent appointment, exposure to a merger-induced common blockholder approximately doubles the probability that the pair is observed in a connected-CEO state. In a broader firm-pair panel, it increases the probability of CEO connections by 48.7%. We further document that gaining CEO connections through another firm’s CEO appointment is associated with improvements in peer firms’ returns on assets and Tobin’s Q, in both OLS and IV specifications. Peer firms that gain such a connection also experience positive abnormal returns around other firms’ CEO hiring announcements, corresponding to an average increase of $112.5 million in shareholder value. These performance patterns suggest that CEO connections may be valuable from a portfolio-level perspective. Consistent with this interpretation, the association between common ownership and CEO connections is concentrated among product-similar and organizationally complex firms and strengthens after the 2008–2009 financial crisis, when connections appear more valuable. Our findings point to CEO connection as a potential governance channel through which common institutional ownership is linked to firm outcomes, complementing prior work on executive compensation, shareholder voting, and board interlocks.
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Pay Restrictions and Labor Investment
June Cao, Iftekhar Hasan, Zijie Huang, Jingyuan Zhao
Journal of Corporate Finance,
Vol. 99 (June),
2026
Abstract
Exploiting the executive compensation reform for state-owned enterprises (SOEs) in China that enforce strict pay restrictions, this study examines whether and how pay restrictions affect firms’ labor investment inefficiency. We find that SOEs experience a decrease in abnormal labor investment following the reform relative to non-SOEs, particularly in over-investment in labor. Our results show that the reform is associated with lower labor investment inefficiency through strengthened internal governance and mitigated internal social comparison. In addition, pay restrictions specifically curb firms’ tendency to over-hire. Further analysis reveals that imposing pay restrictions on executives enhances labor quality and also promotes employee well-being. This study offers novel policy insights by showing how pay restrictions to SOE executives can reduce vertical agency costs and investment inefficiency and enhance workforce quality and well-being in weak institutional environments.
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01.04.2026 • 9/2026
Energy price shock dampens recovery – inflation rises
Although the leading economic research institutes consider the German economy to be in a recovery phase following a downturn lasting several years, they nevertheless expect only a moderate increase in gross domestic product of 0.6% for 2026 and 0.9% for 2027. “The energy price shock triggered by the Iran war is hitting the recovery hard, but at the same time expansionary fiscal policy is bolstering the domestic economy and preventing a stronger slide,” says Timo Wollmershäuser, Head of Forecasts at the ifo Institute. The institutes estimate that the inflation rate will rise to an average of 2.8% in 2026 and 2.9% in 2027.
Oliver Holtemöller
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Fiscal Expansion and Households’ Income Inequality Expectations: A Survey Experiment
Melina Ludolph, Giang Nghiem, Lena Tonzer
Abstract
We study how individuals’ views on current and future levels of income inequality change during periods of expansionary fiscal policy. In a randomized controlled trial (RCT), we provide information on fiscal expansion to a representative sample of the German population. Our findings reveal that combining a fact-based (numerical) information treatment with a narrative treatment about fiscal expansion plans reduces inequality expectations among respondents who are ex-ante dissatisfied with the government’s economic policy. These effects are more pronounced among respondents without a college degree or with low political interest, highlighting the importance of narrative information for individuals who are likely to benefit most from it. We explore potential mechanisms by examining revisions in macro- and micro-level assessments of future economic conditions and find that respondents primarily update their expectations regarding economic growth and individual layoff risk.
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