The Reverse Revolving Door in the Supervision of European Banks
Stefano Colonnello, Michael Koetter, Alex Sclip, Konstantin Wagner
International Journal of Central Banking,
forthcoming
Abstract
We assemble data about executives on the boards of national supervisory authorities (NSA) in European banking, which reveal that 40% have an employment history in the financial industry. Appointment patterns to NSA boards differ substantially across countries. Generally, the appointment of former finance professionals as prudential supervisors is inconsequential for banks‘ valuations, capitalization, and asset growth. The exception are positive, but short-lived valuation effects for those banks whose alumni are appointed as executives of directly responsible NSA boards. Circumstantial evidence suggests that a “proximity bias“ is a more likely driver of this effect inste
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Mixing QE and Interest Rate Policies at the Effective Lower Bound: Micro Evidence from the Euro Area
Christian Bittner, Alexander Rodnyansky, Farzad Saidi, Yannick Timmer
Review of Finance,
forthcoming
Abstract
We study the interaction of expansionary rate-based monetary policy and quantitative easing, despite their concurrent implementation, by exploiting heterogeneous banks and the introduction of negative monetary-policy rates in a fragmented euro area. Quantitative easing increases credit supply less, translating into weaker employment growth, when banks’ funding costs do not decrease. Using administrative data from Germany, we uncover that among banks selling their securities, central-bank reserves remain disproportionately with high-deposit banks that are constrained due to sticky customer deposits at the zero lower bound. Affected German banks lend relatively less to firms while increasing their interbank exposure in the euro area.
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Fiscal Expansion and Households' Income Inequality Expectations: A Survey Experiment
Melina Ludolph, Giang Nghiem, Lena Tonzer
Review of income and wealth,
Vol. 72 (4),
2026
Abstract
We study how individuals' perceptions of current and future levels of income inequality change during periods of expansionary fiscal policy. In a randomized controlled trial (RCT), we provide information on fiscal expansion to a representative sample of the German population. Our findings reveal that combining a fact-based (numerical) information treatment with a narrative treatment about fiscal expansion plans reduces inequality expectations among respondents who are ex-ante dissatisfied with the government's economic policy. These effects are more pronounced among respondents without a college degree or with low political interest, highlighting the importance of narrative information for individuals who are likely to benefit most from it. We explore potential mechanisms by examining revisions in macro- and micro-level assessments of future economic conditions and find that respondents primarily update their expectations regarding economic growth and individual layoff risk.
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28.09.2026 • 29/2026
East Germany also benefits from higher foreign demand – Implications of the Joint Economic Forecast Autumn 2026 and official regional data for the East German economy
In 2026, economic activity in East Germany is expected to grow significantly, though somewhat less strongly than in Germany as a whole. In the years ahead, the Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) forecasts only minor differences in growth rates between East and West Germany. The East German economy is expected to grow by 0.9% in the current year (Germany as a whole: 1.3%). Thereafter, output in East Germany is likely to expand at a pace broadly similar to that of Germany overall, rising by 0.9% in 2027 and by 0.4% in 2028.
Oliver Holtemöller
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24.09.2026 • 28/2026
Joint Economic Forecast Autumn 2026: Recovery under structural stress – fiscal policy on slippery ground
The German economy has been recovering since the end of 2025. This recovery, although stronger than expected in spring, remains modest. The leading economic research institutes expect GDP growth of 1.3% for the current year and 1.1% and 0.4% for the following two years, respectively. Compared with the spring forecast, the outlook for 2026 has been revised upward by 0.7 and that for 2027 by 0.2 percentage points. “The economy has developed more robustly than expected. However, the recovery rests on a narrow foundation, as high energy prices and structural problems continue to weigh on economic activity,” says Oliver Holtemöller, Head of Macroeconomic Forecasting at the Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH). In the current quarter, low water levels are also temporarily dampening economic activity. The government deficit continues to increase, leading to a growing need for fiscal consolidation.
Oliver Holtemöller
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Aufschwung mit Strukturproblemen – Finanzpolitik auf Abwegen
Dienstleistungsauftrag des Bundesministeriums für Wirtschaft und Energie,
No. 2,
2026
Abstract
Die deutsche Wirtschaft ist seit Ende 2025 im Aufschwung. Die Erholung fällt stärker aus als noch im Frühjahr erwartet, bleibt aber schwach. Die führenden Wirtschaftsforschungsinstitute erwarten für das laufende Jahr ein BIP-Plus von 1,3% und für die beiden folgenden Jahre von 1,1% bzw. 0,4%. Gegenüber dem Frühjahr wurde die Prognose für 2026 um 0,7 und für 2027 um 0,2 Prozentpunkte angehoben. Die Wirtschaft hat sich robuster entwickelt als erwartet. Der Aufschwung steht jedoch auf einem schmalen Fundament, denn hohe Energiepreise und Strukturprobleme belasten. Im laufenden Quartal bremst zudem Niedrigwasser die Aktivität vorübergehend. Das staatliche Defizit nimmt weiter zu, sodass sich ein wachsender Konsolidierungsbedarf aufstaut.
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Debt Overhang and Real Firm Outcomes
Arsène Buzima Dunia
IWH Discussion Papers,
No. 14,
2026
Abstract
Does debt overhang distort only investment? This paper analyzes the subsequent effects of debt overhang on firm-level outcomes. Using an event study for German firms from 2004 to 2021, we find that, relative to comparable firms in the same industry and year, highly indebted firms do not merely invest less, which is the classic overhang result. They also hire less, and the two margins together translate into slower sales growth. The composition of the adjustment, however, depends on the firm’s growth regime. Highly indebted firms that keep expanding slow their hiring but raise capital per worker over the long run, substituting capital for labour along a flatter expansion path. Highly indebted firms that contract shed workers with no offsetting change in capital intensity: they scale down rather than restructure. These patterns hold in normal times as well as in crises and are concentrated among small and medium-sized limited-liability firms. Debt overhang is therefore not a pure investment wedge but a persistent drag on firm scale, whose incidence across inputs is determined by whether the firm is growing or shrinking.
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Kulturelle Vielfalt und Immobilienpreise
Rachel Cho, Hisham Farag, Christoph Görtz, Danny McGowan, Huyen Nguyen, Max Schröder
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 1,
2026
Abstract
Bezahlen Immobilienkäufer einen Aufpreis, um in einem kulturell vielfältigen Viertel zu leben? Eine neue Studie mit Daten aus Nordirland legt dies nahe. Um den Zusammenhang zwischen kultureller Vielfalt und Immobilienpreisen zu untersuchen, stützen sich die Forscher auf Daten aus der Zeit der britischen Kolonialisierung Irlands zu Beginn des 17. Jahrhunderts. Damals entstanden Nachbarschaften mit unterschiedlicher religiöser Zusammensetzung. Diese religiöse Zusammensetzung besteht bis heute. Diese Wohnviertel unterscheiden sich also kulturell, nicht jedoch hinsichtlich ihrer ethnischen und sozioökonomischen Merkmale. Die Ergebnisse zeigen: Im Durchschnitt erzielen Immobilien in kulturell vielfältigen Vierteln einen um fast 10% höheren Verkaufspreis als solche in religiös-kulturell homogenen Gebieten. Darin spiegelt sich eine höhere Nachfrage: Vielfältige Viertel sind für ein breiteres Spektrum potenzieller Käufer attraktiv. Dadurch steigt auch die Liquidität der Immobilien. Die Ergebnisse stehen in Kontrast zu früheren Studien, die einen negativen Zusammenhang zwischen Vielfalt und Immobilienpreisen belegten.
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03.09.2026 • 25/2026
Economic Outlook: German economy on a recovery path – Tailwinds from the global economy and fiscal policy
An increase in foreign demand has put the German economy on a recovery path in the first half of the year, despite higher energy prices. In the coming quarters, rising public investment is expected to support economic activity. According to the autumn forecast of the Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), gross domestic product (GDP) is projected to grow by 1.4% this year and by 0.8% in 2027. Economic recovery in eastern Germany is expected to be somewhat weaker. In June, the IWH economists had predicted growth of 0.9% for both this and the next year.
Oliver Holtemöller
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Konjunktur aktuell: Deutsche Konjunktur belebt sich – Rückenwind von Weltwirtschaft und Finanzpolitik
Konjunktur aktuell,
No. 3,
2026
Abstract
Die deutsche Wirtschaft befindet sich trotz höherer Energiepreise und anhaltender Risiken durch den Golfkonflikt auf Erholungskurs. Eine steigende Auslandsnachfrage und zusätzliche staatliche Investitionen stützen die Konjunktur, während die Beschäftigung insbesondere im Verarbeitenden Gewerbe weiter rückläufig ist. Die Produktion dürfte in diesem Jahr um 1,4% und im kommenden Jahr um 0,8% zunehmen; in Ostdeutschland fällt die wirtschaftliche Erholung etwas schwächer aus.
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