Immigration, Tax Progressivity, and Support for Redistribution
Sergi Pardos-Prado, Carla Xena
Journal of European Public Policy,
forthcoming
Abstract
How does immigration affect support for redistribution? While most research focuses on overall tax and spending levels, we investigate how immigration influences preferences conditional on tax structures. Using two original survey experiments in the UK, we find that low- and middle-income respondents are more likely to support redistribution to immigrants under progressive systems shielding them from fiscal costs, but oppose redistribution when immigrants are identified as beneficiaries and the tax structure increases their fiscal burden. In contrast, high-income respondents' preferences are largely unaffected by either tax structure or immigrant inclusion. These findings suggest that progressive taxation (1) is a viable revenue-generating strategy without provoking major political backlash; (2) reduces native resistance to immigrant welfare inclusion; (3) helps explain puzzling variation in immigration's effects on welfare attitudes; and (4) clarifies why low- and middle-income groups sometimes reject generous welfare programs despite standing to benefit. Our results highlight the importance of institutional design in shaping how economic self-interest and immigration concerns interact.
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19.02.2026 • 5/2026
IWH-Tarif-Check: Tariflohnplus reicht nicht ‒ Reale Nettoverluste im Länderdienst
Die Tarifvertragsparteien des öffentlichen Dienstes der Länder haben sich am Wochenende auf einen neuen Tarifabschluss geeinigt. Für die ersten fünf Monate wurde eine „Nullrunde“ vereinbart. Die erste Tariflohnerhöhung von 2,8%, mindestens jedoch 100 Euro pro Monat, erfolgt ab April 2026. Elf Monate später, im März 2027, folgt die nächste Anhebung um 2,0%. Zum Ende der vereinbarten Laufzeit im Januar 2028 werden die regulären Tabellenentgelte nochmals um 1,0% erhöht. Die Tariflohnzuwächse dürften damit leicht über den erwarteten Preissteigerungen liegen. Die derzeit absehbaren zusätzlichen Belastungen durch weiter steigende Sozialabgaben und höhere Lohnsteuern können dadurch jedoch nicht vollständig ausgeglichen werden.
Oliver Holtemöller
Birgit Schultz
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Road to Net Zero: Carbon Policy and Redistributional Dynamics in the Green Transition
Alessandro Sardone
IWH Discussion Papers,
No. 16,
2025
Abstract
This paper examines the macroeconomic and distributional effects of the European Union’s transition to Net Zero emissions through a gradually increasing carbon tax. I develop a New Keynesian Environmental DSGE model with two household types and distinct energy and non-energy sectors. Five alternative uses of carbon tax revenues are considered: equal transfers to households, targeted transfers to Hand-to-Mouth households, subsidies to green energy firms, and reductions in labor and capital income taxes. In the absence of technological progress, the carbon tax policy induces a persistent increase in energy prices and a reduction in GDP, investment, and consumption. Headline inflation falls below zero in the medium run, reflecting weaker aggregate demand. Distributional outcomes vary significantly depending on the implemented revenue recycling scheme: targeted transfers are the most progressive but entail larger macroeconomic costs, while subsidies and tax cuts mitigate output and investment losses but are less effective in narrowing the consumption gap. A limited foresight scenario, in which agents learn about policy targets sequentially, generates more volatile adjustment paths and temporary inflationary spikes around announcements, but long-run outcomes remain close to the baseline.
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