Regional Deprivation, Individual Prospects, and Political Resentment
Giovanni Facchini, Anja Neundorf, Sergi Pardos-Prado, Cecilia Testa
British Journal of Political Science,
forthcoming
Abstract
Regional economic conditions are well-established determinants of the geography of political resentment. However, regions are not homogeneous, and the mechanisms through which local economies affect individual political attitudes are unclear. We argue that feelings of relative deprivation are shaped by how personal prospects are tied to regional conditions, and that the interaction between subjective individual and regional deprivation affects perceptions of shared struggle and systemic unfairness. Through a large-scale survey experiment in Britain addressing geographical self-selection, we provide causal evidence that poor individuals in poor regions express political resentment, whereas in affluent regions the political attitudes of poor and wealthy individuals are indistinguishable. Our findings stress 1) the importance of egocentric mechanisms whereby local economies shape individual prospects; 2) the significance of subjective beliefs over objective information on deprivation; 3) the mobilization potential of highlighting regional deprivation by political entrepreneurs; 4) the relevance of place-based policies to mitigate political discontent.
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Strategic Communication among Banks
Christian Bittner, Falko Fecht, Melissa Pala, Farzad Saidi
Journal of Financial Economics,
forthcoming
Abstract
Do economic incentives govern information diffusion in markets? Using international banks’ advisory activities in corporate takeovers as their source of private information, we show in supervisory data that banks with closer ties to the target, but not the acquirer, advisor trade profitably in the target’s stock prior to the deal announcement. This trading behavior is associated with a higher premium paid by the acquirer without compromising the deal success. As the incentives of informed traders are aligned only with those of the target shareholders, which are represented by the target advisor, our evidence suggests strategic information transmission among these banks.
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03.09.2026 • 25/2026
Economic Outlook: German economy on a recovery path – Tailwinds from the global economy and fiscal policy
An increase in foreign demand has put the German economy on a recovery path in the first half of the year, despite higher energy prices. In the coming quarters, rising public investment is expected to support economic activity. According to the autumn forecast of the Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), gross domestic product (GDP) is projected to grow by 1.4% this year and by 0.8% in 2027. Economic recovery in eastern Germany is expected to be somewhat weaker. In June, the IWH economists had predicted growth of 0.9% for both this and the next year.
Oliver Holtemöller
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02.09.2026 • 24/2026
Launch of the European Real Estate Index (EREI): German housing prices continue to rise more slowly than in Europe
Growth in asking prices for German residential properties offered for sale has lagged the European EREI aggregate since spring 2025. This is shown by the new European Real Estate Index (EREI) presented today by the Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH). This novel data service hinges on more than 43 million listings on online real estate platforms and provides monthly comparisons of residential asking prices and advertised rents across 1,154 European regions in near-real-time.
Michael Koetter
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European Real Estate Index (EREI) 2026: A Near-real-time European Real Estate Index EREI: Monthly Listing Prices and Rents for Residential Real Estate
Michael Koetter, Felix Noth, Fabian Woebbeking
IWH Technical Reports,
No. 2,
2026
Abstract
Real estate is a capstone connection between various economic agents and markets. It is the main store of household wealth, serves as collateral for mortgage loans in the banking system, aids the transmission of monetary policy, and can propagate financial crises when overvalued. Yet comparable house-price data across the European Union (EU) and the euro area is unavailable, which hinders the design and evaluation of common monetary and economic policy that operates across heterogeneous housing markets. We derive monthly subnational European Real Estate Indicators (EREI) from online residential property advertisements in 16 European countries. The release covers April 2024 to June 2026 and contains 48,168 region-month-segment observations for 1,154 NUTS 3 regions, aggregating more than 43 million listing observations across the monthly sale and rental cross-sections. Each region-month segment reports the number of advertisements and summary statistics for asking prices per square meter and listing durations. The release also includes sale-segment indices for Europe, the euro area, and individual countries. Thirteen covered countries are EU members, which represented 85% of EU-27 gross domestic product in 2024. EREI data support research on a wide range of socio-economic phenomena associated with real estate dynamics, such as the evaluation of monetary policy or macroprudential policy effects on financial stability.
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Individualism and the Formation of Human Capital
Katharina Hartinger, Sven Resnjanskij, Jens Ruhose, Simon Wiederhold
Journal of the European Economic Association,
Vol. 24 (3),
2026
Abstract
More individualistic countries experience higher economic growth. We provide evidence for a human-capital-based explanation of the growth effects of individualism. Using data from the largest international adult skill assessment, we establish that individualism shapes human capital formation. We identify the effects of individualism by exploiting variation between migrants at the origin-country, origin-language, and person level. Migrants from more individualistic cultures have higher cognitive skills and larger skill gains over time. They also invest more in their skills over the life cycle, as they acquire more years of schooling and are more likely to participate in adult education activities. Individualism is more important in explaining adult skill formation than any other cultural trait that previous literature has emphasized. In the labor market, more individualistic migrants earn higher wages and are less often unemployed. We show that our results cannot be explained by selective migration or omitted origin-country variables.
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Investment Grants: Curse or Blessing for Employment?
Eva Dettmann
Annals of Regional Science,
Vol. 75 (2),
2026
Abstract
In this study, establishment-level employment effects of investment grants in Germany are estimated. In addition to the quantitative effects, I provide empirical evidence of funding effects on different aspects of employment quality (earnings, qualifications, and job security) for the period 2004 to 2020. The database combines project-level treatment data, establishment-level information on firm characteristics and employee structure, and regional information at the district level. For the estimations, I combine the difference-in-differences approach of Callaway and Sant’Anna (J Econom 2252: 200–230, 2021) with ties matching at the cohort level. The estimations yield positive effects on the number of employees, but point to contradicting effects of investment grants on different aspects of employment quality.
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Growth Clubs and Regional Economic Convergence in Germany
Oliver Holtemöller, Christoph Schult, Anna Solms
IWH Discussion Papers,
No. 4,
2026
Abstract
Many countries and regions remain below the level of economic activity of the world’s most advanced economies. Some countries form growth clubs, some are stuck in the middle-income trap, and some stay on a very low level of economic activity. Although this situation is well documented on the country level, there is less evidence at the sub-national level within countries. We estimate county-level capital stocks and price indices and provide a comprehensive county-level data set for Germany. We find no evidence of convergence across all counties even if we condition on important drivers of long-term growth such as physical and human capital accumulation. Instead, we identify five convergence clubs, using endogenous clustering. We analyze differences in growth paths and describe the identified clusters based on variations in contributions of capital, labor, and total factor productivity to economic growth. Additionally, we examine the role of migration for regional development and find that net migration has in particular contributed to growth in richer regions.
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12.03.2026 • 8/2026
Oil price shock threatens recovery in Germany
Globally rising energy prices in the wake of the new Gulf War are clouding the outlook for the German economy. Nevertheless, increased public expenditure is expected to support economic activity both this year and next. According to the spring forecast of the Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), output is projected to grow by 0.7% in 2026 and by 1.0% in 2027. We expect similar rates of expansion for East Germany. In December, the IWH economists had predicted growth of 1.0% for both 2026 and 2027.
Oliver Holtemöller
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The Geography of Worker-Firm Sorting: Drivers of Rising Colocation
Nils Torben Hollandt, Steffen Müller
IWH Discussion Papers,
No. 22,
2025
Abstract
Spatial segregation of low- and high-wage workers is a persistent economic issue with broad social implications. Using social security data and an AKM wage decomposition, this paper examines spatial wage inequality in West Germany. Spatial inequality in log wages rose sharply between 1998 and 2008, mainly due to increased variance in worker pay premiums across regions (48%) and stronger positive spatial assortative matching of workers and establishments (40%), i.e. colocation. Changes in establishment wage premia are mostly unrelated to rising colocation whereas labor mobility even reduced it. Instead, growth in worker pay premiums among stayers was concentrated in regions where high-wage workers and high-wage establishments were overrepresented already in the 1990s and, thus, magnified pre-existing colocation leading to ‘colocation without relocation’. Germany’s rising trade surplus, especially with Eastern Europe, boosted stayers’ worker pay premiums in those ex-ante high-wage regions and fully explains rising colocation.
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