Housing Yields
Stefano Colonnello, Roberto Marfè, Qizhou Xiong
Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis,
forthcoming
Abstract
We build a granular dataset of residential property yields using rental and sale listings from a major German real estate platform. With more than 1.5 million property-level rent-to-price ratios, we document a novel heterogeneity puzzle. About two-fifths of yield dispersion remains unexplained after controlling for extensive observable property characteristics and postal code-level time-varying factors using fixed effects. When we absorb finer neighborhood amenities through richer fixed effects, the unexplained share remains close to one-third. This evidence points to the importance of investors’ beliefs and preferences—rather than several alternative explanations we test—as sources of heterogeneity in risk premia.
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Delisting and Emission Intensity
Monica Billio, Stefano Colonnello, Ivan Gufler
Applied Economics Letters,
forthcoming
Abstract
We focus on listed non-financial companies from the largest European economies to explore the impact of rising stakeholders’ attention towards climate risk on firms’ probability to delist. An aggregate analysis shows that, despite growing awareness about the climate problem, enhanced scrutiny over more polluting firms and improved access to information about corporate sustainability over the last two decades, the share of carbon-intensive industries has not significantly declined in the listed sector relative to the whole economy. Also at the micro-level, firms in carbon-intensive sectors have not become more likely to delist, even in periods of enhanced stakeholders’ concern about climate risk, potentially because they experienced a shift towards lower emissions over the same period. We confirm this result by means of a quasi-natural experiment centered around the enhanced disclosure requirements introduced by the EU Non-Financial Reporting Directive of 2014.
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Fiscal Expansion and Households' Income Inequality Expectations: A Survey Experiment
Melina Ludolph, Giang Nghiem, Lena Tonzer
Review of income and wealth,
Vol. 72 (4),
2026
Abstract
We study how individuals' perceptions of current and future levels of income inequality change during periods of expansionary fiscal policy. In a randomized controlled trial (RCT), we provide information on fiscal expansion to a representative sample of the German population. Our findings reveal that combining a fact-based (numerical) information treatment with a narrative treatment about fiscal expansion plans reduces inequality expectations among respondents who are ex-ante dissatisfied with the government's economic policy. These effects are more pronounced among respondents without a college degree or with low political interest, highlighting the importance of narrative information for individuals who are likely to benefit most from it. We explore potential mechanisms by examining revisions in macro- and micro-level assessments of future economic conditions and find that respondents primarily update their expectations regarding economic growth and individual layoff risk.
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Safety in Unemployment and Risky Experimentation of Young Firms
Renato Faccini, Seho Kim, Javier Miranda
IWH Discussion Papers,
No. 15,
2026
Abstract
We develop a theory in which a lower cost of job loss reduces the compensating wage premium workers require to join risky young firms. Lower labor costs encourage high-upside experimentation and raise productivity. Because experimentation is not directly observable, we exploit its life-cycle structure: experimentation risk is concentrated among young firms and resolved as firms mature. Using Danish matched employer-employee data and labor-market variation, we show that higher job-finding rates are associated with a lower young-mature wage differential. A randomized survey experiment supports the mechanism: worsening unemployment prospects increases the premium workers require to accept employment at higher-failure-risk young firms.
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03.09.2026 • 25/2026
Economic Outlook: German economy on a recovery path – Tailwinds from the global economy and fiscal policy
An increase in foreign demand has put the German economy on a recovery path in the first half of the year, despite higher energy prices. In the coming quarters, rising public investment is expected to support economic activity. According to the autumn forecast of the Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), gross domestic product (GDP) is projected to grow by 1.4% this year and by 0.8% in 2027. Economic recovery in eastern Germany is expected to be somewhat weaker. In June, the IWH economists had predicted growth of 0.9% for both this and the next year.
Oliver Holtemöller
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02.09.2026 • 24/2026
Launch of the European Real Estate Index (EREI): German housing prices continue to rise more slowly than in Europe
Growth in asking prices for German residential properties offered for sale has lagged the European EREI aggregate since spring 2025. This is shown by the new European Real Estate Index (EREI) presented today by the Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH). This novel data service hinges on more than 43 million listings on online real estate platforms and provides monthly comparisons of residential asking prices and advertised rents across 1,154 European regions in near-real-time.
Michael Koetter
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The Limits of Local Laws in Global Supply Chains: Cutting Ties or “Edutrading” Procurement Partners?
Hendrik Keilbach, Michael Koetter, Melina Ludolph, Fabian Woebbeking
Journal of Development Economics,
Vol. 182 (June),
2026
Abstract
We study the procurement patterns of non-listed firms and examine how these often-overlooked, yet pivotal players in global supply chains adjust their sourcing when they anticipate accountability for externalities beyond their organizational boundaries. Using granular customs data and a surprise information release about the German Supply Chain Due Diligence Act, product-level regressions reveal that importing firms are 3.5 percentage points less likely to source a product from countries where the relevant production sector exhibits elevated ESG-related risks, suggesting that firms tend to cut ties with higher-risk suppliers. The effects are concentrated among firms with well-diversified supplier networks for a product and higher profitability, suggesting they have the necessary flexibility to respond quickly to anticipated regulatory pressure. Our findings suggest that mandates requiring firms to incorporate broad sustainability considerations into their operational decisions may have limits, particularly for non-listed firms.
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11.06.2026 • 17/2026
Economic Outlook: Between Energy Crisis and AI Boom
Until the outbreak of the energy crisis, the German economy was on a path to recovery. Now the recovery will only continue over the course of 2026 if the Gulf conflict eases and energy prices do not rise further. This assumption underlies the present summer forecast of the Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH). In that case, German output is expected to increase by 0.9% for this year and for 2027. Growth rates in East Germany will be similar. In March, the IWH economists had predicted growth of 0.7% for 2026 and 1% for the next year.
Oliver Holtemöller
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The Single Supervisory Mechanism, Loan Growth vs. Volatility, and Granular Risk Spillovers
Helena Baum, Melina Ludolph, Lena Tonzer
RSC Working Paper,
No. 17,
2026
Abstract
We analyze how the establishment of the Single Supervisory Mechanism (SSM) relates to patterns in banks’ lending activities, risk outcomes, and granular risks within the banking system. Using data on euro area banks from 2010 to 2021, we estimate idiosyncratic shocks to banks’ loan growth to construct a measure of loan growth volatility and to compute the “Banking Granular Residual.” Banks under SSM supervision exhibit lower volatility in loan portfolio growth, indicating more stable lending dynamics. Furthermore, the implementation of the SSM is associated with positive spillover effects on non-SSM banks’ lending and a weaker relationship between granular banking shocks and economic growth.
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Transition Dynamics in Heterogeneous-agent Models and the Distributional Consequences of Taxation
Alexandra Gutsch, Christoph Schult
IWH Discussion Papers,
No. 7,
2026
Abstract
We study how idiosyncratic income risk shapes the aggregate and distributional effects of labor and capital income taxation in dynamic general equilibrium models. To this end, we compare a heterogeneous-agent (HA) model with uninsurable idiosyncratic labor productivity risk and a ten-representative-agent (TE) model in which households correspond to fixed wealth deciles without such risk. At the aggregate level, both models generate qualitatively similar responses; however, the HA model exhibits a smaller recessionary impact driven by precautionary savings behavior, which stabilizes investment. At the distributional level, the models differ sharply. In the HA framework, tax shocks trigger endogenous mobility across wealth deciles. These inter-decile transition dynamics tend to benefit lower deciles. In contrast, the TA model features fixed household positions. Our findings highlight that while simpler multi-representative-agent models can approximate aggregate dynamics well, they may miss important distributional adjustment channels. The relevance of these mechanisms ultimately depends on the empirical importance of mobility across the wealth distribution, pointing to a key trade-off between model simplicity and accuracy.
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