24.09.2026 • 28/2026
Joint Economic Forecast Autumn 2026: Recovery under structural stress – fiscal policy on slippery ground
The German economy has been recovering since the end of 2025. This recovery, although stronger than expected in spring, remains modest. The leading economic research institutes expect GDP growth of 1.3% for the current year and 1.1% and 0.4% for the following two years, respectively. Compared with the spring forecast, the outlook for 2026 has been revised upward by 0.7 and that for 2027 by 0.2 percentage points. “The economy has developed more robustly than expected. However, the recovery rests on a narrow foundation, as high energy prices and structural problems continue to weigh on economic activity,” says Oliver Holtemöller, Head of Macroeconomic Forecasting at the Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH). In the current quarter, low water levels are also temporarily dampening economic activity. The government deficit continues to increase, leading to a growing need for fiscal consolidation.
Oliver Holtemöller
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Kulturelle Vielfalt und Immobilienpreise
Rachel Cho, Hisham Farag, Christoph Görtz, Danny McGowan, Huyen Nguyen, Max Schröder
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 1,
2026
Abstract
Bezahlen Immobilienkäufer einen Aufpreis, um in einem kulturell vielfältigen Viertel zu leben? Eine neue Studie mit Daten aus Nordirland legt dies nahe. Um den Zusammenhang zwischen kultureller Vielfalt und Immobilienpreisen zu untersuchen, stützen sich die Forscher auf Daten aus der Zeit der britischen Kolonialisierung Irlands zu Beginn des 17. Jahrhunderts. Damals entstanden Nachbarschaften mit unterschiedlicher religiöser Zusammensetzung. Diese religiöse Zusammensetzung besteht bis heute. Diese Wohnviertel unterscheiden sich also kulturell, nicht jedoch hinsichtlich ihrer ethnischen und sozioökonomischen Merkmale. Die Ergebnisse zeigen: Im Durchschnitt erzielen Immobilien in kulturell vielfältigen Vierteln einen um fast 10% höheren Verkaufspreis als solche in religiös-kulturell homogenen Gebieten. Darin spiegelt sich eine höhere Nachfrage: Vielfältige Viertel sind für ein breiteres Spektrum potenzieller Käufer attraktiv. Dadurch steigt auch die Liquidität der Immobilien. Die Ergebnisse stehen in Kontrast zu früheren Studien, die einen negativen Zusammenhang zwischen Vielfalt und Immobilienpreisen belegten.
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The Single Supervisory Mechanism, Loan Growth vs. Volatility, and Granular Risk Spillovers
Helena Baum, Melina Ludolph, Lena Tonzer
RSC Working Paper,
No. 17,
2026
Abstract
We analyze how the establishment of the Single Supervisory Mechanism (SSM) relates to patterns in banks’ lending activities, risk outcomes, and granular risks within the banking system. Using data on euro area banks from 2010 to 2021, we estimate idiosyncratic shocks to banks’ loan growth to construct a measure of loan growth volatility and to compute the “Banking Granular Residual.” Banks under SSM supervision exhibit lower volatility in loan portfolio growth, indicating more stable lending dynamics. Furthermore, the implementation of the SSM is associated with positive spillover effects on non-SSM banks’ lending and a weaker relationship between granular banking shocks and economic growth.
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Market Feedback Effect on CEO Pay: Evidence from Peers’ Say-on-Pay Voting Failures
Agnes Cheng, Iftekhar Hasan, Feng Tang, Jing Xie
Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis,
Vol. 61 (3),
2026
Abstract
This article shows that when a compensation peer firm experiences a significant failure in its say-on-pay (SOP) voting, the focal firm’s stock price is adversely affected, resulting in reduced CEO pay in the subsequent period. This pay-reduction effect is amplified when the board is more powerful, when proxy advisors express concerns about CEO pay, and when the compensation consultant lacks quality. Directors who react to the price drop and cut the CEO’s pay receive higher votes in future director elections, implying a market feedback effect for directors of the focal firm triggered by their peers’ SOP voting failure.
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Decoding the Digital Finance Revolution: How BigTechs, FinTechs and Crypto-Assets Shape Financial Systemic Risk in US and EU
Domenico Curcio, Simona D’Amico, Iftekhar Hasan, Davide Vioto
Journal of International Money and Finance,
Vol. 161 (February),
2026
Abstract
Using a market-indicator-based approach, this paper empirically examines whether the stability of the US and EU financial systems is affected by the digital finance revolution driven by BigTechs, FinTechs, and crypto-assets. These three sectors display different downside volatility profiles, with financial intermediaries being particularly sensitive to shocks from the crypto ecosystem only under extremely severe downturns, which are prevented in regulated equity markets. In that vein, we provide evidence that the Markets in Crypto Assets Regulation reduced financial systemic risk in EU. Overall, our empirical analysis shows that markets perceive the performance and riskiness of tech-driven companies and assets in differentiated ways, and that the transmission of shocks from digital finance ecosystems operates uniquely under varying conditions of systemic stress. Finally, we also document asymmetric spillover effects between advanced and emerging economies, with shock transmission from the US and EU to emerging markets being systematically stronger than in the reverse direction.
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Cross-border Transmission of Climate Policies Through Global Production Networks
Marius Fourné
IWH Discussion Papers,
No. 19,
2025
Abstract
Climate policies do not operate in isolation but propagate through global production networks, affecting industries beyond national borders. This paper combines international input-output data with a granular instrumental variable approach to capture how foreign regulations transmit through upstream and downstream linkages. Distinguishing between market-based policies, non-market regulations, and technology support, the analysis shows that foreign climate policies can enhance domestic productivity, with effects shaped by industry characteristics and operating through technological adjustment along supply chains. The results underscore the importance of accounting for international spillovers when evaluating the economic impact of environmental regulation.
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