Macroeconomic Reports
Macroeconomic Reports Local and global: IWH regularly provides current economic data - be it about the state of the East German economy, the macroeconomic development in Germany…
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IWH Alumni The IWH maintains contact with its former employees worldwide. We involve our alumni in our work and keep them informed, for example, with a newsletter. We also plan…
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Archive
Media Response Archive 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 December 2021 IWH: Ausblick auf Wirtschaftsjahr 2022 in Sachsen mit Bezug auf IWH-Prognose zu Ostdeutschland: "Warum Sachsens…
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Homepage
Geopolitical turn intensifies crisis – structural reforms even more urgent The German economy will continue to tread water in 2025. In their spring report, the leading economic…
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IWH Bankruptcy Research
IWH Bankruptcy Research The Bankruptcy Research Unit of the Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) presents the Institute’s research on the topics of corporate bankruptcy,…
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Forecasting Economic Activity Using a Neural Network in Uncertain Times: Monte Carlo Evidence and Application to the
German GDP
Oliver Holtemöller, Boris Kozyrev
IWH Discussion Papers,
No. 6,
2024
Abstract
In this study, we analyzed the forecasting and nowcasting performance of a generalized regression neural network (GRNN). We provide evidence from Monte Carlo simulations for the relative forecast performance of GRNN depending on the data-generating process. We show that GRNN outperforms an autoregressive benchmark model in many practically relevant cases. Then, we applied GRNN to forecast quarterly German GDP growth by extending univariate GRNN to multivariate and mixed-frequency settings. We could distinguish between “normal” times and situations where the time-series behavior is very different from “normal” times such as during the COVID-19 recession and recovery. GRNN was superior in terms of root mean forecast errors compared to an autoregressive model and to more sophisticated approaches such as dynamic factor models if applied appropriately.
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Work-Life Balance
Work-Life-Balance The IWH is family-friendly The Halle Institute for Economic Research constantly reviews and improves its framework for ensuring the compatibility of family and…
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Green Transition
Green Transition Research and Policy Advice for Structural Change in the German Economy Dossier, 18.06.2024 Green Transition The green transition is a key topic of our time. In a…
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Research Clusters
Three Research Clusters Research Cluster "Economic Dynamics and Stability" Research Questions This cluster focuses on empirical analyses of macroeconomic dynamics and stability.…
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Internships
Internship at Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) Interested in gaining an authentic insight in the interesting daily business and the variable tasks of an institute for…
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