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Professor Dr Lena Tonzer

Professor Dr Lena Tonzer
Current Position

since 1/26

Research Professor

Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) – Member of the Leibniz Association

since 5/14

Head of the Research Group Regulation of International Financial Markets and International Banking 

Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) – Member of the Leibniz Association

since 4/25

Professor

Leipzig University

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Research Interests
  • banking and sovereign debt crises
  • integration of financial markets
  • banking regulation

Lena Tonzer joined the institute as a Research Professor in January 2026. Her research focuses on banking and sovereign debt crises, integration of financial markets, and banking regulation.

Lena Tonzer is Professor of Money, Credit & Banking at the Faculty of Economics and Management Science at Leipzig University.

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Professor Dr Lena Tonzer
Professor Dr Lena Tonzer
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Publications

Citations
838

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Fiscal Expansion and Households' Income Inequality Expectations: A Survey Experiment

Melina Ludolph Giang Nghiem Lena Tonzer

in: Review of Income and Wealth, Vol. 72 (4), 2026

Abstract

We study how individuals' perceptions of current and future levels of income inequality change during periods of expansionary fiscal policy. In a randomized controlled trial (RCT), we provide information on fiscal expansion to a representative sample of the German population. Our findings reveal that combining a fact-based (numerical) information treatment with a narrative treatment about fiscal expansion plans reduces inequality expectations among respondents who are ex-ante dissatisfied with the government's economic policy. These effects are more pronounced among respondents without a college degree or with low political interest, highlighting the importance of narrative information for individuals who are likely to benefit most from it. We explore potential mechanisms by examining revisions in macro- and micro-level assessments of future economic conditions and find that respondents primarily update their expectations regarding economic growth and individual layoff risk.

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Inflation Concerns and Green Product Consumption: Evidence From a Nationwide Survey and a Framed Field Experiment

Sabrina Jeworrek Lena Tonzer

in: Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, Vol. 248 (August), 2026

Abstract

Promoting green (usually more costly) product consumption is one essential element in building a sustainable society. In times of high inflation, not only budget constraints but also the fear that prices will continue to rise might limit the effectiveness of exerted efforts to promote sustainable behaviors. To test this suggestion, we conducted a Germany-wide survey with almost 1200 respondents, followed by a framed field experiment to confirm causality. Our proxy for green consumption is organic food purchases. Survey respondents’ stated organic purchasing behavior is positively correlated with concerns about climate change but negatively correlated with concerns about inflation. The latter result is driven by individuals with a below-median environmental attitude. In the framed field experiment, we use the priming method to manipulate the saliency of inflation concerns. Whereas sizably relaxing the budget constraint has no impact on the share of organic products in participants’ baskets, the priming significantly decreases the share of organic products for individuals with below-median environmental attitude. Using the same inflation priming in a subsequent survey experiment with around 1800 respondents, we find that high inflationary environments affect both the perception of organic being luxury products and the social norm of buying organic. Both effects are more pronounced for individuals with below-median environmental attitude and, hence, they are the likely mechanisms driving the negative effects on organic product consumption.

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Distributional Income Effects of Banking Regulation in Europe

Melina Ludolph Lena Tonzer Lars Brausewetter

in: Journal of Corporate Finance, Vol. 100 (July), 2026

Abstract

We study the impact of stricter and more harmonized banking regulation along the income distribution using household survey data for 25 EU countries. Exploiting country-level heterogeneity in the implementation of European Banking Union directives allows us to control for confounders and identify effects. Our results show that these regulatory reforms aimed at increasing financial system resilience affect households heterogeneously and result in a widening of the income distribution. These results are dependent on a country’s ex-ante regulatory stringency, and more pronounced in countries with stronger bank dependence. Furthermore, we find that more stringent regulation reduces income growth for low-income households primarily due to exits from employment, whereas affluent households tend to experience increased growth rates for employee and self-employed income.

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Working Papers

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Facts or Feelings? The Role of Relatable Narratives in Shaping Inflation Expectations

Melina Ludolph Giang Nghiem Lena Tonzer

in: IWH Discussion Papers, No. 10, 2026

Abstract

We examine whether combining factual information on inflation levels and forecasts with a narrative can persistently shape consumers’ inflation expectations. In a preregistered randomized controlled trial with a representative sample of 3,000 German consumers, participants received either numerical or textual information about inflation rates, with or without an accompanying narrative. All treatments immediately lower inflation expectations, with numerical information eliciting stronger adjustments. Adding a narrative produces no additional immediate effect, confirming that it conveys no new information. However, only the combination of numerical information with a narrative yields a lasting reduction in inflation expectations and forecast uncertainty still observable after four weeks. Our results suggest that combining precise information with a narrative enhances information retention and can lead to more persistent shifts in consumers’ beliefs. The effects are strongest when respondents perceive the narrative as relatable and emotionally engaging, and among those with low financial literacy and limited knowledge of inflation.

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The Single Supervisory Mechanism, Loan Growth vs. Volatility, and Granular Risk Spillovers

Helena Baum Melina Ludolph Lena Tonzer

in: RSC Working Paper, No. 17, 2026

Abstract

We analyze how the establishment of the Single Supervisory Mechanism (SSM) relates to patterns in banks’ lending activities, risk outcomes, and granular risks within the banking system. Using data on euro area banks from 2010 to 2021, we estimate idiosyncratic shocks to banks’ loan growth to construct a measure of loan growth volatility and to compute the “Banking Granular Residual.” Banks under SSM supervision exhibit lower volatility in loan portfolio growth, indicating more stable lending dynamics. Furthermore, the implementation of the SSM is associated with positive spillover effects on non-SSM banks’ lending and a weaker relationship between granular banking shocks and economic growth.

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Banks’ foreign homes

Kirsten Schmidt Lena Tonzer

in: Deutsche Bundesbank Discussion Papers, No. 46, 2024

Abstract

Our results reveal that higher lending spreads between foreign and home markets redirect real estate backed lending towards foreign markets offering a higher interest rate, which provides evidence for "search for yield" behavior. This re-allocation is found especially for banks with more expertise on the foreign market due to a higher local activity and holds for commercial and residential real estate backed loans. Furthermore, "search for yield" behavior and a resulting increase in foreign real estate backed lending is found when macroprudential regulation is missing or misaligned between a bank’s country of residence and the destination country. When turning to the question of whether the detected search for yield behavior results in more risk, we find that especially better capitalized banks report higher forbearance ratios as they might face less stigma effects compared to low capitalized banks.

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