Evaluation of Subsidy Programmes
This research group develops the scientific foundations for causal impact analysis of policy interventions within the European Union, with a particular focus on place-based policies. Despite significant public spending on such programmes in many developed economies, there is limited evidence on their effectiveness and efficiency.
Our approach integrates three key dimensions: first, the systematic use of administrative funding data and legislative documents; second, the application of advanced methods in policy impact evaluation; and third, the exchange of knowledge among researchers, policymakers, public administration, and civil society. Without this integration, research risks becoming either overly abstract or disconnected from the institutional and legal realities of policy implementation. By combining these elements, we create robust research designs grounded in real data and legal frameworks.
This approach allows us to generate evidence-based insights that contribute to better informed decision-making—not only in politics but also within civil society. The findings of our work have contributed to the revision and improvement of existing subsidy programmes. The research group is closely embedded in the activities of the Centre for Evidence-based Policy Advice (CEP), ensuring both scientific rigor and practical relevance. In doing so, we embody the leitmotif of the Leibniz Association: theoria cum praxi.
Research Cluster
Economic Dynamics and StabilityYour contact
- Department Centre for Evidence-based Policy Advice
EXTERNAL FUNDING
05.2024 ‐ 10.2024
Evaluation, Monitoring and Scientific Support of Structural Change in Lusatia, BTU
State of Brandenburg/State Chancellery
01.2022 ‐ 10.2023
Evaluation, Monitoring and Scientific Support of Structural Change in Lusatia
State of Brandenburg/State Chancellery
08.2018 ‐ 06.2023
Evaluation of the Joint Task “Improving the Regional Economic Structure” (GRW) through Individual Company Performance Reviews
Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy (BMWI)
09.2019 ‐ 09.2022
Establishing Evidence-based Evaluation Methods for Subsidy Programmes in Germany (EVA-KULT)
The project aims at expanding the Centre for Evidence-based Policy Advice at the Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH-CEP).
02.2019 ‐ 01.2022
Analysis and Design of Support Programmes to Manage Structural Change in Regions Affected by the Energy Transition
Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF)
01.2018 ‐ 12.2020
Networked growth - Innovative Saxony-Anhalt through digital business models (Competence Center 4.0)
01.2017 ‐ 12.2018
Political Participation in Eastern Germany
12.2015 ‐ 11.2018
Socio-economic Effects of Research on Innovative Approaches for POC Diagnostics
Part of the EXASENS project. Coordinated by the Leibniz Institute of Photonic Technology (IPHT) in Jena, nine Leibniz institutes are working together on researching point-of-care (POC) technology for the prediction and diagnosis of chronic inflammatory respiratory diseases. See press release.
02.2017 ‐ 02.2018
The Importance of Non-University Research Institutions for the Development of Firms and Regions (Be_For_Reg-Projekt)
01.2015 ‐ 12.2016
Evaluation of the "Joint Task 'Improving the Regional Economic Structure'" in the Federal State of Saxony-Anhalt
Refereed Publications
Benchmark Value-added Chains and Regional Clusters in R&D-intensive Industries
in: International Regional Science Review, Vol. 40 (5), 2017
Abstract
Although the phase of euphoria seems to be over, policy makers and regional agencies have maintained their interest in cluster policy. Modern cluster theory provides reasons for positive external effects that may accrue from interaction in a group of proximate enterprises operating in common and related fields. Although there has been some progress in locating clusters, in most cases only limited knowledge on the geographical extent of regional clusters has been established. In the present article, we present a hybrid approach to cluster identification. Dominant buyer–supplier relationships are derived by qualitative input–output analysis from national input–output tables, and potential regional clusters are identified by spatial scanning. This procedure is employed to identify clusters of German research and development-intensive industries. A sensitivity analysis reveals good robustness properties of the hybrid approach with respect to variations in the quantitative cluster composition.
Joint R&D Subsidies, Related Variety, and Regional Innovation
in: International Regional Science Review, Vol. 40 (3), 2017
Abstract
Subsidies for research and development (R&D) are an important tool of public R&D policy, which motivates extensive scientific analyses and evaluations. This article adds to this literature by arguing that the effects of R&D subsidies go beyond the extension of organizations’ monetary resources invested into R&D. It is argued that collaboration induced by subsidized joint R&D projects yield significant effects that are missed in traditional analyses. An empirical study on the level of German labor market regions substantiates this claim, showing that collaborative R&D subsidies impact regions’ innovation growth when providing access to related variety and embedding regions into central positions in cross-regional knowledge networks.
Complex-task Biased Technological Change and the Labor Market
in: Review of Economic Dynamics, Vol. 25 (April), 2017
Abstract
In this paper we study the relationship between task complexity and the occupational wage- and employment structure. Complex tasks are defined as those requiring higher-order skills, such as the ability to abstract, solve problems, make decisions, or communicate effectively. We measure the task complexity of an occupation by performing Principal Component Analysis on a broad set of occupational descriptors in the Occupational Information Network (O*NET) data. We establish four main empirical facts for the U.S. over the 1980–2005 time period that are robust to the inclusion of a detailed set of controls, subsamples, and levels of aggregation: (1) There is a positive relationship across occupations between task complexity and wages and wage growth; (2) Conditional on task complexity, routine-intensity of an occupation is not a significant predictor of wage growth and wage levels; (3) Labor has reallocated from less complex to more complex occupations over time; (4) Within groups of occupations with similar task complexity labor has reallocated to non-routine occupations over time. We then formulate a model of Complex-Task Biased Technological Change with heterogeneous skills and show analytically that it can rationalize these facts. We conclude that workers in non-routine occupations with low ability of solving complex tasks are not shielded from the labor market effects of automatization.
Mapping Potentials for Input-Output Based Innovation Flows in Industrial Clusters – An Application to Germany
in: Economic Systems Research, Vol. 28 (4), 2016
Abstract
Our paper pursues two aims: first, it presents an approach based on input–output innovation flow matrices to study intersectoral innovation flows within industrial clusters. Second, we apply this approach to the identification of structural weaknesses in East Germany relative to the western part of the country. The case of East Germany forms an interesting subject because while its convergence process after unification began promisingly in the first half of the 1990s, convergence has since slowed down. The existing gap can now be traced mainly to structural weaknesses in the East German economy, such as the absence of strong industrial cluster structures. With this in mind, we investigate whether East Germany does in fact reveal the abovementioned structural weaknesses. Does East Germany possess fewer industrial clusters? Are they less connected? Does East Germany lack specific clusters that are also important for the non-clustered part of the economy?
The Importance of Localized Related Variety for International Diversification of Corporate Technology
in: Regional Studies, Vol. 50 (10), 2016
Abstract
Die Bedeutung der lokalisierten verbundenen Vielfalt für die internationale Diversifizierung von Unternehmenstechnik.
Die Internationalisierung der Forschung und Entwicklung hat sich in den letzten Jahren erheblich verstärkt. In diesem Beitrag analysieren wir die Determinanten der räumlichen Verteilung von ausländischen Technikaktivitäten in 96 deutschen Regionen. Zur Identifizierung ausländischer Technikaktivitäten wird das Konzept des grenzübergreifenden Eigentums auf Patentanträge angewandt. Die wichtigste Prämisse lautet, dass Regionen mit einer höheren verbundenen Vielfalt von Technikaktivitäten zwischen den einzelnen Sektoren mehr ausländische Technikaktivitäten anziehen. Aus den Schätzungen geht hervor, dass dies auf Regionen zutrifft, die sich durch ein hohes Maß an genereller technischer Stärke auszeichnen. Dies lässt darauf schließen, dass verbundene Vielfalt die technische Diversifizierung von ausländischen Unternehmen in Regionen an der Spitze der geografischen Hierarchie begünstigt.
Working Papers
A Helping Hand, but not a Lift. EU Cohesion Policy and Regional Development
in: IWH Discussion Papers, No. 18, 2025
Abstract
This study provides new evidence on the impact of the EU Cohesion Policy on income growth in less developed regions. Our panel includes data from all European regions for the years 1989-2020. Using a fuzzy Regression Discontinuity Design, we model treatment dynamics by applying a random effects estimator. Based on digitized historical data, we precisely replicate the policy rule and correctly classify the regions’ eligibility status. Results show that the policy has a moderate positive effect on GDP per capita growth in the targeted regions.
Declining Free Lunch: State Capacity and Foregone Public Spending
in: RFBerlin Discussion Paper, No. 67, 2025
Abstract
This paper documents substantial fiscal waste in the context of one the world’s largest regional development programs – the EU Cohesion Policy. We study Italy, and find that 20% of funding commitments are never paid out and funneled into unfinished or never-started projects. In our setting, this happens for reasons unrelated to fiscal constraints – municipalities appear to simply leave money on the table. Foregone spending is more prevalent in Southern regions, but there is also stark variation across municipalities within regions. We show that such under-utilization of available funds is strongly associated with limited administrative capacity of local governments.
Reshaping the Economy? Local Reallocation Effects of Place-Based Policies
in: CESifo Working Papers, No. 12031, July 2025
Abstract
We study the effects of place-based policies on aggregate productivity using administrative data on projects co-financed by the EU in Italy linked to balance sheet data. We exploit quasi-experimental variation in funding for a large place-based policy stemming from measurement error in regional GDP estimates. Results show that the policy likely decreases productivity. Decompositions reveal that aggregate declines are driven by reallocation of labor to low-productivity firms. Mechanism analysis using firm-level event studies reveals that negative reallocation effects are caused by high-productivity firms taking up the funds and subsequently becoming more liquidity constrained, leading to slowdowns in employment growth.
Investment Grants: Curse or Blessing for Employment?
in: IWH Discussion Papers, No. 12, 2025
Abstract
In this study, establishment-level employment effects of investment grants in Germany are estimated. In addition to the quantitative effects, I provide empirical evidence of funding effects on different aspects of employment quality (earnings, qualifications, and job security) for the period 2004 to 2020. The database combines project-level treatment data, establishment-level information on firm characteristics and employee structure, and regional information at the district-level. For the estimations, I combine the difference-in-differences approach of Callaway and Sant’Anna (2021) with ties matching at the cohort level. The estimations yield positive effects on the number of employees, but point to contradicting effects of investment grants on different aspects of employment quality.
Who Benefits from Place-based Policies? Evidence from Matched Employer-Employee Data
in: IWH Discussion Papers, No. 11, 2024
Abstract
We study the granular wage and employment effects of a German place-based policy using a research design that leverages conditionally exogenous EU-wide rules governing program parameters at the regional level. The place-based program subsidizes investments to create jobs with a subsidy rate that varies across labor market regions. The analysis uses matched data on the universe of establishments and their employees, establishment-level panel data on program participation, and regional scores that generate spatial discontinuities in program eligibility and generosity. Spatial spillovers of the program linked to changing commuting patterns can be assessed using information on place of work and place of residence, a unique feature of the data. These rich data enable us to study the incidence of the place-based program on different groups of individuals. We find that the program helps establishments create jobs that disproportionately benefit younger and less-educated workers. Funded establishments increase their wages but, unlike employment, wage gains do not persist in the long run. Employment effects estimated at the local area level are slightly larger than establishment- level estimates, suggesting limited economic spillover effects. On the other hand, spatial spillovers are large as over half of the employment increase comes from commuters. Using subsidy rates as an instrumental variable for actual subsidies indicates that it costs approximately EUR 25,000 to create a new job in the economically disadvantaged areas targeted by the program.