IWH-CompNet Discussion Papers
IWH-CompNet Discussion Papers The IWH-CompNet Discussion Paper series presents research...
Reports of the European Forecasting Network (EFN)
Reports of the European Forecasting Network (EFN) The European Forecasting...
IWH FDI Micro Database
IWH FDI Micro Database The IWH FDI Micro Database (FDI = Foreign Direct...
The CompNet Competitiveness Database The Competitiveness Research Network (CompNet)...
European Firms after the Crisis – New Insights from the 5th Vintage of the CompNet Firm-level-based Database ...
Size of Training Firms and Cumulated Long-run Unemployment Exposure – The Role of Firms, Luck, and Ability in Young Workers’ Careers ...
Statistical presentation of international trade in the course of German unification
Klaus Voy (Ed.): Außenhandel und Globalisierung in gesamtwirtschaftlicher Sicht. Marburg: Metropolis,
How did the German unification influence the development and the statistical presentation of he contemporary trade of the eastern and western part of Germany? The parallel presentation oft he regional gross domestic products and their demand components is he only way, to describe adequate the flow of goods and between both the two parts of the German economy as well as with the rest of the world.
14.12.2017 • 39/2017
Cyclical upswing in Germany and in the world
At the turn of the year, the cyclical upswing in Germany continues. Gross domestic product is expected to increase by 2.2% in 2017, and because this year has seen significantly fewer working days than before, the rate of change amounts, adjusted for calendar effects, to even 2.5%. “The upswing is broad-based”, says Oliver Holtemöller, head of the Department Macroeconomics and IWH vice president. “For quite a long time now, significant increases in employment have been driving private incomes, consumption and housing construction. The latter was, in addition, stimulated by low interest rates.” Currently, German exports are benefiting from the vivid international economy. Not least since monetary policy in the euro area remains expansionary for the time being, we expect the upturn to continue in 2018 and production to increase again by 2.2%. Consumer price inflation is, with 1.7%, still moderate in both 2017 and 2018. Although domestic price pressures are on the rise, the effects of the energy price increase in 2017 expire in 2018, and the appreciation of the euro in the summer of 2017 will dampen price dynamics.
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Trade Growth Driven by a Cyclical Upswing of the World Economy
The surge in world trade since autumn 2016 is mainly caused by a worldwide cyclical upswing. In particular, stronger investment activity has a strong impact on international trade since the import content of investment goods is generally high. However, important structural causes for a slow down in trade still apply, and hence, its trend growth rate will not reach the level it has reached in the two decades before 2009.
06.07.2017 • 28/2017
Politicians share responsibility for the risk of their state defaulting
Investors assume higher risks of default when a country is politically unstable or governed by a party at the left or right end of the political spectrum. However, according to findings obtained by Stefan Eichler from the Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), the more democratic the country is and the more it is integrated into the global economy, the lower is the impact that such political factors have.
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