The Regional Effects of a Place-based Policy – Causal Evidence from Germany
Matthias Brachert, Eva Dettmann, Mirko Titze
Regional Science and Urban Economics,
November
2019
Abstract
The German government provides discretionary investment grants to structurally weak regions in order to reduce regional inequality. We use a regression discontinuity design that exploits an exogenous discrete jump in the probability of regional actors to receive investment grants to identify the causal effects of the policy. We find positive effects of the programme on district-level gross value-added and productivity growth, but no effects on employment and gross wage growth.
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Power Generation and Structural Change: Quantifying Economic Effects of the Coal Phase-out in Germany
Christoph Schult, Katja Heinisch, Oliver Holtemöller
Abstract
In the fight against global warming, the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions is a major objective. In particular, a decrease in electricity generation by coal could contribute to reducing CO2 emissions. We study potential economic consequences of a coal phase-out in Germany, using a multi-region dynamic general equilibrium model. Four regional phase-out scenarios before the end of 2040 are simulated. We find that the worst case phase-out scenario would lead to an increase in the aggregate unemployment rate by about 0.13 [0.09 minimum; 0.18 maximum] percentage points from 2020 to 2040. The effect on regional unemployment rates varies between 0.18 [0.13; 0.22] and 1.07 [1.00; 1.13] percentage points in the lignite regions. A faster coal phase-out can lead to a faster recovery. The coal phase-out leads to migration from German lignite regions to German non-lignite regions and reduces the labour force in the lignite regions by 10,100 [6,300; 12,300] people by 2040. A coal phase-out until 2035 is not worse in terms of welfare, consumption and employment compared to a coal-exit until 2040
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Klimaschutz und Kohleausstieg: Politische Strategien und Maßnahmen bis 2030 und darüber hinaus
Pao-Yu Oei, Casimir Lorenz, Sophie Schmalz, Hanna Brauers, Philipp Herpich, Christian von Hirschhausen, Claudia Kemfert, Barbara Dröschel, Jan Hildebrand, Juri Horst, Uwe Klann, Patrick Matschoss, Michael Porzig, Irina Rau, Bernhard Wern, Hans-Ulrich Brautzsch, Gerhard Heimpold, Katja Heinisch, Oliver Holtemöller, Christoph Schult, Hauke Hermann, Dirk Heyen, Katja Schumacher, Cornelia Ziehm
Pao-Yu Oei et al., Klimaschutz und Kohleausstieg: Politische Strategien und Maßnahmen bis 2030 und darüber hinaus. Abschlussbericht. Climate Change 27/2019. Dessau-Roßlau: Umweltbundesamt,
2019
published in: Energy
Abstract
Die vorliegende Studie untersucht die ökonomischen Auswirkungen eines durch die Klimaziele der Bundesregierung induzierten Kohleausstiegs in Deutschland. Der Fokus liegt hierbei auf der Braunkohlenwirtschaft – insbesondere in den Braunkohleregionen. Diese werden in einem ersten Schritt räumlich abgegrenzt und beschrieben. Für die weitere Untersuchung bilden energiewirtschaftliche Modellierungen die Grundlage. Diese liefern Ausstiegspfade für die Kohlenutzung, welche sich in den gewählten Kriterien (spezifische Emissionen oder Kraftwerksalter) für die Abschaltungsreihenfolge der Kraftwerke unterscheiden. Darauf aufbauend werden mit Hilfe eines Input-Output-Modells und eines regionalwirtschaftlichen Modells die ökonomischen Effekte des Kohleausstiegs sowohl in den Braunkohleregionen als auch im übrigen Deutschland untersucht. Die Modelle zeigen, dass bei einem frühzeitigen Ausstieg die negativen Effekte des Strukturwandels früher zu Tage treten. Dafür können in diesem Fall jedoch Erholungseffekte laut regionalwirtschaftlichem Modell stärker den negativen Effekten entgegenwirken.
Die Studie untersucht die wirtschaftlichen Chancen in den Braunkohleregionen. Diese bestehen im Grundsatz in einem breiten Spektrum wirtschaftlicher Aktivitäten. Die durchgeführten, exemplarischen Untersuchungen zeigen für alle Braunkohleregionen bedeutende Beschäftigungspotenziale auf. Bereits die aufgezeigten potenziellen Arbeitsplätze in den Bereichen Erneuerbare Energien und Gebäudesanierung können dem Stellenabbau im Zuge des untersuchten Strukturwandels durch den Kohleausstieg entgegenwirken. Abschließend werden flankierende politische Instrumente beschrieben, die die Regionen bei dem bevorstehenden Strukturwandel nutzen und unterstützen können.
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United Country – Three Decades After the Wall Came Down
Einzelveröffentlichungen,
2019
Abstract
Die Berliner Mauer als das Symbol der deutschen Teilung ist mittlerweile länger verschwunden als sie gestanden hat, doch die Unterschiede innerhalb des Landes sind auch nach drei Jahrzehnten noch sichtbar. Jüngste Forschungsergebnisse zeigen jedoch, dass die Bruchkante der wirtschaftlichen Entwicklung nicht immer ausschließlich entlang der ehemaligen innerdeutschen Grenze verläuft, sondern neben dem West-Ost-Gefälle auch Süd-Nord- oder Stadt-Land-Unterschiede zutage treten.
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Innovation Cooperation in East and West Germany: A Study on the Regional and Technological Impact
Uwe Cantner, Alexander Giebler, Jutta Günther, Maria Kristalova, Andreas Meder
International Journal of Computational Economics and Econometrics,
3/4
2018
Abstract
In this paper, we investigate the impact of regional and technological innovation systems on innovation cooperation. We develop an indicator applicable to regions, which demonstrates the relative regional impact on innovation cooperation. Applying this method to German patent data, we find that regional differences in the degree of innovation cooperation do not only depend on the technology structure of a region but also on specific regional effects. High-tech oriented regions, whether east or west, are not automatically highly cooperative regions. East German regions have experienced a dynamic development of innovation cooperation since re-unification in 1990. Their cooperation intensity remains higher than in West German regions.
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The Privatisation Activities of the Treuhandanstalt and the Transformation of the East German Corporate Landscape: A New Dataset for First Explorations
Alexander Giebler, Michael Wyrwich
IWH Technical Reports,
No. 1,
2018
Abstract
Even nearly 30 years after the fall of the Berlin Wall, the privatisation and transformation of East Germany's business landscape is controversially discussed in the media and politics. The privatisation process led to enormous structural changes, which were associated with massive job losses. In particular, the stagnating regional development of East Germany is often blamed on the “long shadow” of the privatisation activities of the Treuhandanstalt (THA). From a scientific perspective, however, there are hardly any contributions dealing with the effects of privatisation activities. The IWH-Treuhand Privatisation Micro Database introduced in this technical report is novel as such that it provides comprehensive information on employment and turnover figures for formerly state-owned enterprises for the early 1990s.
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Public Investment Subsidies and Firm Performance – Evidence from Germany
Matthias Brachert, Eva Dettmann, Mirko Titze
Jahrbücher für Nationalökonomie und Statistik,
No. 2,
2018
Abstract
This paper assesses firm-level effects of the single largest investment subsidy programme in Germany. The analysis considers grants allocated to firms in East German regions over the period 2007 to 2013 under the regional policy scheme Joint Task ‘Improving Regional Economic Structures’ (GRW). We apply a coarsened exact matching (CEM) in combination with a fixed effects difference-in-differences (FEDiD) estimator to identify the effects of programme participation on the treated firms. For the assessment, we use administrative data from the Federal Statistical Office and the Offices of the Länder to demonstrate that this administrative database offers a huge potential for evidence-based policy advice. The results suggest that investment subsidies have a positive impact on different dimensions of firm development, but do not affect overall firm competitiveness. We find positive short- and medium-run effects on firm employment. The effects on firm turnover remain significant and positive only in the medium-run. Gross fixed capital formation responses positively to GRW funding only during the mean implementation period of the projects but becomes insignificant afterwards. Finally, the effect of GRW-funding on labour productivity remains insignificant throughout the whole period of analysis.
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Multidimensional Well-being and Regional Disparities in Europe
Jörg Döpke, Andreas Knabe, Cornelia Lang, Philip Maschke
Journal of Common Market Studies,
No. 5,
2017
Abstract
Using data from the OECD Regional Well-Being Index – a set of quality-of-life indicators measured at the sub-national level – we construct a set of composite well-being indices. We analyze the extent to which the choice of five alternative aggregation methods affects the well-being ranking of regions. We find that regional inequality in these composite measures is lower than regional inequality in real GDP per capita. For most aggregation methods, the rank correlation across regions appears to be quite high. It is also shown that using alternative indices instead of GDP per capita would only have a small effect on the set of regions eligible for aid from EU Structural Funds. The exception appears to be an aggregation based on how individual dimensions relate to average life satisfaction across regions, which would substantially change both the ranking of regions and which regions would be eligible for EU funds.
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Non-linearity in the Finance-Growth Nexus: Evidence from Indonesia
Nuruzzaman Arsyad, Iftekhar Hasan, Wahyoe Soedarmono
International Economics,
August
2017
Abstract
This paper investigates the finance-growth nexus where bank credit is decomposed into investment, consumption, and working capital credit. From a panel dataset of provinces in Indonesia, it documents that higher financial development measured by financial deepening and financial intermediation exhibits an inverted U-shaped relationship with economic growth. This non-linear effect of financial deepening is driven by both investment credit and consumption credit. These results suggest that too much investment credit and, to a lesser extent, consumption credit are detrimental to economic growth. Ultimately, only financial intermediation associated with working capital credit has a positive and monotonic impact on economic growth.
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Dienstleistungssektor bestimmt Dynamik beim Arbeitsvolumen
Hans-Ulrich Brautzsch
Wirtschaftsdienst,
No. 7,
2017
Abstract
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