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Professor Dr Oliver Holtemöller

Professor Dr Oliver Holtemöller
Current Position

since 3/14

Vice President

Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) – Member of the Leibniz Association

since 8/09

Head of the Department of Macroeconomics

Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) – Member of the Leibniz Association

since 8/09

Professor of Economics


Martin Luther University Halle-Wittenberg

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Research Interests
  • quantitative macroeconomics, business cycles, and forecasting
  • applied econometrics and time series analysis
  • monetary economics
  • macroeconomic policy
  • environmental macroeconomics

Oliver Holtemöller is Professor of Economics at Martin Luther University Halle-Wittenberg and head of the Department of Macroeconomics at the Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) since August 2009. Since March 2014, he is also a member of the executive board of the IWH.

Oliver Holtemöller has studied economics, applied mathematics and practical computer science at the Justus-Liebig University in Gießen. He participated in the doctoral programme Applied Microeconomics at the Freie Universität Berlin and at the Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin from 1998-2001 and obtained his doctoral degree from the Freie Universität Berlin in 2001.

From 2001 to 2003, he was a collaborator in the National Research Center Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes (SFB 373) at the Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin. From 2003 to 2009, he was an Assistant Professor in Economics at RWTH Aachen University.

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Professor Dr Oliver Holtemöller
Professor Dr Oliver Holtemöller
Leiter - Department Macroeconomics
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Publications

Recent Publications

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IWH-Flash-Indikator IV. Quartal 2023 und I. Quartal 2024

Katja Heinisch Oliver Holtemöller Axel Lindner Birgit Schultz

in: IWH Flash Indicator, No. 4, 2023

Abstract

Im dritten Quartal 2023 sank die Wirtschaftsleistung in Deutschland leicht um 0,1%, das schwache Plus aus dem Vorquartal wurde damit wieder abgeschmolzen. Insbesondere nahmen die Konsumausgaben der privaten Haushalte weiter ab. Das dürfte nicht zuletzt der immer noch recht kräftigen Inflation bei nur moderat steigenden Haushaltsbudgets geschuldet sein. Auch ist die Verunsicherung der privaten Haushalte nach wie vor groß, etwa bezüglich der Finanzierbarkeit der künftig notwendigen Klimaschutzmaßnahmen oder bezüglich der mittelfristigen Wirtschaftsaussichten in Deutschland. Zudem haben sich die geopolitischen Risiken mit dem Ausbruch kriegerischer Handlungen im Nahen Osten noch einmal erhöht. Auch wenn für das vierte Quartal 2023 aufgrund wieder etwas steigender Realeinkommen ein kleiner Zuwachs der Produktion in Deutschland zu erwarten ist, lässt der Aufschwung auf sich warten. Das Bruttoinlandsprodukt (BIP) dürfte laut IWH-Flash-Indikator im vierten Quartal 2023 sowie im ersten Quartal 2024 jeweils um 0,2% steigen (vgl. Abbildung 1).

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Die Gemeinschaftsdiagnose. Wirtschaftspolitischer Hintergrund, Methoden und Prognosegüte

Oliver Holtemöller

in: WiSt - Wirtschaftswissenschaftliches Studium, No. 9, 2023

Abstract

This paper presents the Joint Economic Forecast (Gemeinschaftsdiagnose, GD) of the leading German economic research institutes. The GD provides a reference for the federal government's macroeconomic projections on which the tax estimates are based, and it informs economic policy makers, the media and the general public about important economic developments. The reports are published each spring and fall.

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Dekarbonisierung in Europa: Regionalwirtschaftliche Effekte in ausgewählten Kohleregionen und kohlenstoffintensiven Regionen Europa

Katja Heinisch Oliver Holtemöller Christoph Schult

in: Wirtschaft im Wandel, No. 3, 2023

Abstract

Die EU hat mit dem „Fit for 55“-Paket zwei große klimapolitische Ziele festgelegt: die Senkung der Treibhausgasemissionen um 55% bis zum Jahr 2030 und Treibhausgasneutralität ab dem Jahr 2050. Im Rahmen des EU-Horizon-2020-Projekts ENTRANCES werden die gesellschaftlichen Effekte der Dekarbonisierung und besonders des Kohleausstiegs in verschiedenen europäischen Regionen interdisziplinär analysiert und darauf basierend Handlungsempfehlungen für die Politik abgeleitet. Der vorliegende Beitrag stellt erste analytische Ergebnisse vor.

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Refereed Publications

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International Trade Barriers and Regional Employment: The Case of a No-Deal Brexit

Hans-Ulrich Brautzsch Oliver Holtemöller

in: Journal of Economic Structures, No. 11, 2021

Abstract

We use the World Input–Output Database (WIOD) combined with regional sectoral employment data to estimate the potential regional employment effects of international trade barriers. We study the case of a no-deal Brexit in which imports to the United Kingdom (UK) from the European Union (EU) would be subject to tariffs and non-tariff trade costs. First, we derive the decline in UK final goods imports from the EU from industry-specific international trade elasticities, tariffs and non-tariff trade costs. Using input–output analysis, we estimate the potential output and employment effects for 56 industries and 43 countries on the national level. The absolute effects would be largest in big EU countries which have close trade relationships with the UK, such as Germany and France. However, there would also be large countries outside the EU which would be heavily affected via global value chains, such as China, for example. The relative effects (in percent of total employment) would be largest in Ireland followed by Belgium. In a second step, we split up the national effects on the NUTS-2 level for EU member states and additionally on the county (NUTS-3) level for Germany. The share of affected workers varies between 0.03% and 3.4% among European NUTS-2 regions and between 0.15% and 0.4% among German counties. A general result is that indirect effects via global value chains, i.e., trade in intermediate inputs, are more important than direct effects via final demand.

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Power Generation and Structural Change: Quantifying Economic Effects of the Coal Phase-out in Germany

Katja Heinisch Oliver Holtemöller Christoph Schult

in: Energy Economics, 2021

Abstract

In the fight against global warming, the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions is a major objective. In particular, a decrease in electricity generation by coal could contribute to reducing CO2 emissions. We study potential economic consequences of a coal phase-out in Germany, using a multi-region dynamic general equilibrium model. Four regional phase-out scenarios before the end of 2040 are simulated. We find that the worst case phase-out scenario would lead to an increase in the aggregate unemployment rate by about 0.13 [0.09 minimum; 0.18 maximum] percentage points from 2020 to 2040. The effect on regional unemployment rates varies between 0.18 [0.13; 0.22] and 1.07 [1.00; 1.13] percentage points in the lignite regions. A faster coal phase-out can lead to a faster recovery. The coal phase-out leads to migration from German lignite regions to German non-lignite regions and reduces the labour force in the lignite regions by 10,100 [6300; 12,300] people by 2040. A coal phase-out until 2035 is not worse in terms of welfare, consumption and employment compared to a coal-exit until 2040.

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(Since when) are East and West German Business Cycles Synchronised?

Stefan Gießler Katja Heinisch Oliver Holtemöller

in: Jahrbücher für Nationalökonomie und Statistik, No. 1, 2021

Abstract

We analyze whether, and since when, East and West German business cycles are synchronised. We investigate real GDP, unemployment rates and survey data as business cycle indicators and we employ several empirical methods. Overall, we find that the regional business cycles have synchronised over time. GDP-based indicators and survey data show a higher degree of synchronisation than the indicators based on unemployment rates. However, synchronisation among East and West German business cycles seems to have become weaker again recently.

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Working Papers

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Globalisation, Productivity Growth, and Labour Compensation

Christian Dreger Marius Fourné Oliver Holtemöller

in: IWH Discussion Papers, No. 7, 2022

Abstract

Since the onset of globalisation, production activities have become increasingly fragmented and organised in global value chains (GVC). These networks facilitate trade in intermediaries across industrial sectors and countries and change the conditions for policies to respond to shocks. In this paper, we contribute to the understanding of the effects of GVC on productivity and labour shares in advanced and emerging economies. As indicators for globalisation we use the foreign share in intermediate inputs and the foreign share in value added, extracted from international input output tables. Estimates based on local projections reveal a positive relationship between globalisation and productivity. Moreover, we are able to reject the hypothesis that a higher degree of international integration in country-industry pairs is negatively associated with the change in the labour share for advanced countries.

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Exchange Rates and the Information Channel of Monetary Policy

Oliver Holtemöller Alexander Kriwoluzky Boreum Kwak

in: IWH Discussion Papers, No. 17, 2020

Abstract

We disentangle the effects of monetary policy announcements on real economic variables into an interest rate shock component and a central bank information shock component. We identify both components using changes in interest rate futures and in exchange rates around monetary policy announcements. While the volatility of interest rate surprises declines around the Great Recession, the volatility of exchange rate changes increases. Making use of this heteroskedasticity, we estimate that a contractionary interest rate shock appreciates the dollar, increases the excess bond premium, and leads to a decline in prices and output, while a positive information shock appreciates the dollar, decreases prices and the excess bond premium, and increases output.

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Integrated Assessment of Epidemic and Economic Dynamics

Oliver Holtemöller

in: IWH Discussion Papers, No. 4, 2020

Abstract

In this paper, a simple integrated model for the joint assessment of epidemic and economic dynamics is developed. The model can be used to discuss mitigation policies like shutdown and testing. Since epidemics cause output losses due to a reduced labor force, temporarily reducing economic activity in order to prevent future losses can be welfare enhancing. Mitigation policies help to keep the number of people requiring intensive medical care below the capacity of the health system. The optimal policy is a mixture of temporary partial shutdown and intensive testing and isolation of infectious persons for an extended period of time.

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Topics

Climate Policy Forecasts Growth Labour Market Demographic Change East Germany Minimum Wages Coal Phase-out Economic Outlook National Budget Taxes
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