Financial System Adaptability and Resilience

Financial Systems differ between countries. Their configuration is sticky and does not change suddenly. A well-functioning financial system is essential for economic development by efficiently allocating capital to the highest net present value projects. 

However, the resilience of financial systems is frequently challenged. For example, the Great Financial Crisis of 2007/08 was a large blow from within the system: New financial instruments fuelled a credit bubble in the United States' housing markets, which almost brought down the global financial system when it eventually burst. The crisis triggered hefty government interventions and regulatory actions to make financial systems more resilient. 

More frequently, challenges like the Covid-19 pandemic, the climate crisis and the green transition of economies, and the energy crisis triggered by the war in Ukraine, again highlight the crucial importance of resilient financial systems that adapt themselves and facilitate adequate responses to shocks of the real economy alike. 

The research group “Financial System Adaptability and Resilience” investigates three critical aspects of financial system adaptability and resilience. First, it uses the occurrence of major natural disasters in the United States and Germany to analyse the impact of these events on financial systems. Natural disasters are becoming more frequent and more severe because of climate change. Therefore, evidence about the role of banks in providing funding to spur economic recovery is critical. 

Investigations across different configurations of financial systems, such as bank- vs. market-based economies (e. g., Germany vs. the United States), allow for highlighting which components of financial systems seem better equipped to increase financial systems resiliency. 

Second, the climate crisis requires economies to transform production technologies in order to source sustainable and renewable energy inputs. By using micro-data on German plants and their headquarters' banking relationships and information about the local and federal state leading political parties in Germany, the group aims to investigate the effects of political preferences for the green transition. This group's research will thereby enhance our understanding how climate policies balance the necessary need to reduce emissions with the economic burden imposed on agents during any large-scale transition of societies.

Third, the group's research analyses the role of culture in economies. The idea is that various aspects of culture, like religion, can work as a device that holds societies together and facilitate economic transactions. Using well-established empirical laboratories coming from significant natural disasters (for example, Hurricane Katrina in 2005), the group investigates whether local economies with a higher cultural imprint coming from religion found it easier to recover faster. Other incidents for which culture can play a vital role are big corporate scandals. 

Using the Volkswagen Scandal from 2015, research by this group analyses the essential role of cultural imprints for consumer reactions in responding to large corporate scandals. This is important since government and regulatory intervention tend to come late or insufficient to punish corporate wrongdoings.  

Workpackage 1: Development of Financial Systems after Significant Natural Disasters

Workpackage 2: Financial Systems' Role in the Economies' Green Transition

Workpackage 3: Cultural Aspects within Financial Systems

Research Cluster
Financial Resilience and Regulation

Your contact

Professor Dr Felix Noth
Professor Dr Felix Noth
- Department Financial Markets
Send Message +49 345 7753-702 Personal page

EXTERNAL FUNDING

08.2022 ‐ 07.2025

OVERHANG: Debt overhang and green investments - the role of banks in climate-friendly management of emission-intensive fixed assets

The collaborative project “Debt Overhang and Green Investments” (OVERHANG) aims to investigate the role of banks in the climate-friendly management of emission-intensive fixed assets. This will identify policy-relevant insights on financial regulation, government-controlled lending and financial stability, as well as raise awareness among indebted stakeholders.

See project page

Professor Michael Koetter, PhD

01.2015 ‐ 12.2019

Interactions between Bank-specific Risk and Macroeconomic Performance

Professor Dr Felix Noth

07.2016 ‐ 12.2018

Relationship Lenders and Unorthodox Monetary Policy: Investment, Employment, and Resource Reallocation Effects

Leibniz Association

We combine a number of unique and proprietary data sources to measure the impact of relationship lenders and unconventional monetary policy during and after the European sovereign debt crisis on the real economy. Establishing systematic links between different research data centers (Forschungsdatenzentren, FDZ) and central banks with detailed micro-level information on both financial and real activity is the stand-alone proposition of our proposal. The main objective is to permit the identification of causal effects, or their absence, regarding which policies were conducive to mitigate financial shocks and stimulate real economic activities, such as employment, investment, or the closure of plants.

Professor Michael Koetter, PhD

Refereed Publications

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Enforceability of Noncompetition Agreements and Firm Innovation: Does State Regulation Matter?

Desheng Yin Iftekhar Hasan Nada Kobeissi Haizhi Wang

in: Innovation: Organization & Management, No. 2, 2017

Abstract

In this study, we examine how noncompetition agreements and the mobility of human capital – a core asset of any firm – affect innovations of publicly traded firms in the United States. We find that firms in states with stricter noncompetition enforcement have fewer patent applications. We also examine patent forward citations and find that tougher enforcement of such contracts is associated with less innovative patents. Notably, we find that stronger enforcement of noncompetition agreements impedes innovation for firms facing intense industry labor mobility. High-powered, equity-based compensation positively moderates the relationship between noncompetition enforcement and innovation, but only for the quality of innovation.

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Structural Reforms in Banking: The Role of Trading

Jan Pieter Krahnen Felix Noth Ulrich Schüwer

in: Journal of Financial Regulation, No. 1, 2017

Abstract

In the wake of the recent financial crisis, significant regulatory actions have been taken aimed at limiting risks emanating from banks’ trading activities. The goal of this article is to look at the alternative reforms in the US, the UK and the EU, specifically with respect to the role of proprietary trading. Our conclusions can be summarized as follows: First, the focus on a prohibition of proprietary trading, as reflected in the Volcker Rule in the US and in the current proposal of the European Commission (Barnier proposal), is inadequate. It does not necessarily reduce risk-taking and it is likely to crowd out desired trading activities, thereby possibly affecting financial stability negatively. Second, trading separation into legally distinct or ring-fenced entities within the existing banking organizations, as suggested under the Vickers proposal for the UK and the Liikanen proposal for the EU, is a more effective solution. Separation limits cross-subsidies between banking and proprietary trading and diminishes contagion risk, while still allowing for synergies and risk management across banking, non-proprietary trading, and proprietary trading.

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Bank Risk Proxies and the Crisis of 2007/09: A Comparison

Felix Noth Lena Tonzer

in: Applied Economics Letters, No. 7, 2017

Abstract

The global financial crisis has again shown that it is important to understand the emergence and measurement of risks in the banking sector. However, there is no consensus in the literature which risk proxy works best at the level of the individual bank. A commonly used measure in applied work is the Z-score, which might suffer from calculation issues given poor data quality. Motivated by the variety of bank risk proxies, our analysis reveals that nonperforming assets are a well-suited complement to the Z-score in studies of bank risk.

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How Do Insured Deposits Affect Bank Risk? Evidence from the 2008 Emergency Economic Stabilization Act

Claudia Lambert Felix Noth Ulrich Schüwer

in: Journal of Financial Intermediation, January 2017

Abstract

This paper tests whether an increase in insured deposits causes banks to become more risky. We use variation introduced by the U.S. Emergency Economic Stabilization Act in October 2008, which increased the deposit insurance coverage from $100,000 to $250,000 per depositor and bank. For some banks, the amount of insured deposits increased significantly; for others, it was a minor change. Our analysis shows that the more affected banks increase their investments in risky commercial real estate loans and become more risky relative to unaffected banks following the change. This effect is most distinct for affected banks that are low capitalized.

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On the Nonexclusivity of Loan Contracts: An Empirical Investigation

Hans Degryse Vasso Ioannidou Erik von Schedvin

in: Management Science, No. 12, 2016

Abstract

We study how a bank's willingness to lend to a previously exclusive firm changes once the firm obtains a loan from another bank ("outside loan") and breaks an exclusive relationship. Using a difference-in-difference analysis and a setting where outside loans are observable, we document that an outside loan triggers a decrease in the initial bank's willingness to lend to the firm, i.e., outside loans are strategic substitutes. Consistent with concerns about coordination problems and higher indebtedness, we find that this reaction is more pronounced the larger the outside loan and it is muted if the initial bank's existing and future loans retain seniority and are protected with valuable collateral. Our results give a benevolent role to transparency enabling banks to mitigate adverse effects from outside loans. The resulting substitute behavior may also act as a stabilizing force in credit markets limiting positive comovements between lenders, decreasing the possibility of credit freezes and financial crises.

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Working Papers

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Capital Requirements, Market Structure, and Heterogeneous Banks

Carola Müller

in: IWH Discussion Papers, No. 15, 2022

Abstract

Bank regulators interfere with the efficient allocation of resources for the sake of financial stability. Based on this trade-off, I compare how different capital requirements affect default probabilities and the allocation of market shares across heterogeneous banks. In the model, banks‘ productivity determines their optimal strategy in oligopolistic markets. Higher productivity gives banks higher profit margins that lower their default risk. Hence, capital requirements indirectly aiming at high-productivity banks are less effective. They also bear a distortionary cost: Because incumbents increase interest rates, new entrants with low productivity are attracted and thus average productivity in the banking market decreases.

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Covered Bonds and Bank Portfolio Rebalancing

Jin Cao Ragnar E. Juelsrud Talina Sondershaus

in: Norges Bank Working Papers, No. 6, 2021

Abstract

We use administrative and supervisory data at the bank and loan level to investigate the impact of the introduction of covered bonds on the composition of bank balance sheets and bank risk. Covered bonds, despite being collateralized by mortgages, lead to a shift in bank lending from mortgages to corporate loans. Young and low-rated firms in particular receive more credit, suggesting that overall credit risk increases. At the same time, we find that total balance sheet liquidity increases. We identify the channel in a theoretical model and provide empirical evidence: Banks with low initial liquidity and banks with sufficiently high risk-adjusted return on firm lending drive the results.

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Lender-specific Mortgage Supply Shocks and Macroeconomic Performance in the United States

Franziska Bremus Thomas Krause Felix Noth

in: IWH Discussion Papers, No. 3, 2021

Abstract

This paper provides evidence for the propagation of idiosyncratic mortgage supply shocks to the macroeconomy. Based on micro-level data from the Home Mortgage Disclosure Act for the 1990-2016 period, our results suggest that lender-specific mortgage supply shocks affect aggregate mortgage, house price, and employment dynamics at the regional level. The larger the idiosyncratic shocks to newly issued mortgages, the stronger are mortgage, house price, and employment growth. While shocks at the level of shadow banks significantly affect mortgage and house price dynamics, too, they do not matter much for employment.

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Trade Shocks, Credit Reallocation and the Role of Specialisation: Evidence from Syndicated Lending

Isabella Müller

in: IWH Discussion Papers, No. 15, 2020

Abstract

This paper provides evidence that banks cut lending to US borrowers as a consequence of a trade shock. This adverse reaction is stronger for banks with higher ex-ante lending to US industries hit by the trade shock. Importantly, I document large heterogeneity in banks‘ reaction depending on their sectoral specialisation. Banks shield industries in which they are specialised in and at the same time reduce the availability of credit to industries they are not specialised in. The latter is driven by low-capital banks and lending to firms that are themselves hit by the trade shock. Banks‘ adjustments have adverse real effects.

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Spillovers of Asset Purchases Within the Real Sector: Win-Win or Joy and Sorrow?

Talina Sondershaus

in: IWH Discussion Papers, No. 22, 2019

Abstract

Events which have an adverse or positive effect on some firms can disseminate through the economy to firms which are not directly affected. By exploiting the first large sovereign bond purchase programme of the ECB, this paper investigates whether more lending to some firms spill over to firms in the surroundings of direct beneficiaries. Firms operating in the same industry and region invest less and reduce employment. The paper shows the importance to consider spillover effects when assessing unconventional monetary policies: Differences between treatment and control groups can be entirely attributed to negative effects on the control group.

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