Financial System Adaptability and Resilience

Financial systems differ across countries and tend to evolve slowly over time. Their structure is typically stable, but their resilience is often tested. A well-functioning financial system is vital for economic development, as it ensures that capital flows to the most productive and valuable investment opportunities. However, systemic vulnerabilities can have far-reaching consequences. For example, the 2007–08 global financial crisis emerged from within the financial sector itself when complex financial products fuelled a credit bubble in the U.S. housing market, threatening global economic stability when the bubble burst. That event led to extensive policy and regulatory reforms to strengthen financial system resilience.

Financial systems continue to face significant challenges. External shocks like the COVID-19 pandemic, the climate crisis, the green economic transition, and the energy crisis driven by geopolitical conflict all underscore the importance of financial systems that can absorb shocks and adapt to changing economic conditions. Motivated by these pressing issues, we investigate how financial systems respond to crises, which institutions and policies improve resilience, and the role of finance systems' setup in broader economic transformations. We use diverse data sources, including bank and firm-level data, regulatory reports, and house price and election data, to inform evidence-based policy.

Research Cluster
Financial Resilience and Regulation

Your contact

Professor Dr Felix Noth
Professor Dr Felix Noth
- Department Financial Markets
Send Message +49 345 7753-702 Personal page

EXTERNAL FUNDING

08.2022 ‐ 07.2025

OVERHANG: Debt overhang and green investments - the role of banks in climate-friendly management of emission-intensive fixed assets

The collaborative project “Debt Overhang and Green Investments” (OVERHANG) aims to investigate the role of banks in the climate-friendly management of emission-intensive fixed assets. This will identify policy-relevant insights on financial regulation, government-controlled lending and financial stability, as well as raise awareness among indebted stakeholders.

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Professor Michael Koetter, PhD

01.2015 ‐ 12.2019

Interactions between Bank-specific Risk and Macroeconomic Performance

Professor Dr Felix Noth

07.2016 ‐ 12.2018

Relationship Lenders and Unorthodox Monetary Policy: Investment, Employment, and Resource Reallocation Effects

Leibniz Association

We combine a number of unique and proprietary data sources to measure the impact of relationship lenders and unconventional monetary policy during and after the European sovereign debt crisis on the real economy. Establishing systematic links between different research data centers (Forschungsdatenzentren, FDZ) and central banks with detailed micro-level information on both financial and real activity is the stand-alone proposition of our proposal. The main objective is to permit the identification of causal effects, or their absence, regarding which policies were conducive to mitigate financial shocks and stimulate real economic activities, such as employment, investment, or the closure of plants.

Professor Michael Koetter, PhD
Professor Javier Miranda, PhD

Refereed Publications

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Default Options and Social Welfare: Opt In versus Opt Out

Jan Bouckaert Hans Degryse

in: Journal of Institutional and Theoretical Economics JITE, No. 3, 2013

Abstract

We offer a social-welfare comparison of the two most prominent default options – opt in and opt out – using a two-period model of localized competition. We demonstrate that when consumers stick to the default option, the prevailing default policy shapes firms' ability to collect and use customer information, and affects their pricing strategy and entry decision differently. The free-entry analysis reveals that fewer firms enter under opt out as competition becomes harsher, and that opt out is the socially preferred default option.

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Financial Constraints of Private Firms and Bank Lending Behavior

Patrick Behr L. Norden Felix Noth

in: Journal of Banking and Finance, No. 9, 2013

Abstract

We investigate whether and how financial constraints of private firms depend on bank lending behavior. Bank lending behavior, especially its scale, scope and timing, is largely driven by bank business models which differ between privately owned and state-owned banks. Using a unique dataset on private small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) we find that an increase in relative borrowings from local state-owned banks significantly reduces firms’ financial constraints, while there is no such effect for privately owned banks. Improved credit availability and private information production are the main channels that explain our result. We also show that the lending behavior of local state-owned banks can be sustainable because it is less cyclical and neither leads to more risk taking nor underperformance.

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Bertrand Competition with an Asymmetric No-discrimination Constraint

Jan Bouckaert Hans Degryse Theon van Dijk

in: Journal of Industrial Economics, No. 1, 2013

Abstract

Regulators and competition authorities often prevent firms with significant market power, or dominant firms, from practicing price discrimination. The goal of such an asymmetric no-discrimination constraint is to encourage entry and serve consumers' interests. This constraint prohibits the firm with significant market power from practicing both behaviour-based price discrimination within the competitive segment and third-degree price discrimination across the monopolistic and competitive segments. We find that this constraint hinders entry and reduces welfare when the monopolistic segment is small.

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Regional Origins of Employment Volatility: Evidence from German States

Claudia M. Buch M. Schlotter

in: Empirica, No. 1, 2013

Abstract

Greater openness for trade can have positive welfare effects in terms of higher growth. But increased openness may also increase uncertainty through a higher volatility of employment. We use regional data from Germany to test whether openness for trade has an impact on volatility. We find a downward trend in the unconditional volatility of employment, paralleling patterns for output volatility. The conditional volatility of employment, measuring idiosyncratic developments across states, in contrast, has remained fairly unchanged. In contrast to evidence for the US, we do not find a significant link between employment volatility and trade openness.

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Foreign Bank Entry, Credit Allocation and Lending Rates in Emerging Markets: Empirical Evidence from Poland

Hans Degryse Olena Havrylchyk Emilia Jurzyk Sylwester Kozak

in: Journal of Banking and Finance, No. 11, 2012

Abstract

Earlier studies have documented that foreign banks charge lower lending rates and interest spreads than domestic banks. We hypothesize that this may stem from the superior efficiency of foreign entrants that they decide to pass onto borrowers (“performance hypothesis”), but could also reflect a different loan allocation with respect to borrower transparency, loan maturity and currency (“portfolio composition hypothesis”). We are able to differentiate between the above hypotheses thanks to a novel dataset containing detailed bank-specific information for the Polish banking industry. Our findings demonstrate that banks differ significantly in terms of portfolio composition and we attest to the “portfolio composition hypothesis” by showing that, having controlled for portfolio composition, there are no differences in lending rates between banks.

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Working Papers

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Ecological Preferences and the carbon Intensity of Corporate Investment

Michael Koetter Felix Noth

in: IWH Discussion Papers, No. 2, 2025

Abstract

<p>Lowering carbon intensity in manufacturing is necessary to transform current production technologies. We test if local agents’ preferences, revealed by vote shares for the Green party during local elections in Germany, relate to the carbon intensity of investments in production technologies. Our sample comprises all investment choices made by manufacturing establishments from 2005-2017. Our results suggest that ecological preferences correlate with significantly fewer carbon-intensive investment projects while investments stimulating growth and reducing carbon emissions increase by 14 percentage points. Both results are more distinct in federal states where the Green Party enjoys political power and local ecological preferences are high.</p>

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Green Investing, Information Asymmetry, and Capital Structure

Shasha Li Biao Yang

in: IWH Discussion Papers, No. 20, 2023

Abstract

We investigate how optimal attention allocation of green-motivated investors changes information asymmetry in financial markets and thus affects firms‘ financing costs. To guide our empirical analysis, we propose a model where investors with heterogeneous green preferences endogenously allocate limited attention to learn market-level or firm-specific fundamental shocks. We find that a higher fraction of green investors in the market leads to higher aggregate attention to green firms. This reduces the information asymmetry of green firms, leading to higher price informativeness and lower leverage. Moreover, the information asymmetry of brown firms and the market increases with the share of green investors. Therefore, greater green attention is associated with less market efficiency. We provide empirical evidence to support our model predictions using U.S. data. Our paper shows how the growing demand for sustainable investing shifts investors‘ attention and benefits eco-friendly firms.

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Long-run Competitive Spillovers of the Credit Crunch

William McShane

in: IWH Discussion Papers, No. 10, 2023

Abstract

Competition in the U.S. appears to have declined. One contributing factor may have been heterogeneity in the availability of credit during the financial crisis. I examine the impact of product market peer credit constraints on long-run competitive outcomes and behavior among non-financial firms. I use measures of lender exposure to the financial crisis to create a plausibly exogenous instrument for product market credit availability. I find that credit constraints of product market peers positively predict growth in sales, market share, profitability, and markups. This is consistent with the notion that firms gained at the expense of their credit constrained peers. The relationship is robust to accounting for other sources of inter-firm spillovers, namely credit access of technology network and supply chain peers. Further, I find evidence of strategic investment, i.e. the idea that firms increase investment in response to peer credit constraints to commit to deter entry mobility. This behavior may explain why temporary heterogeneity in the availability of credit appears to have resulted in a persistent redistribution of output across firms.

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Banking Market Deregulation and Mortality Inequality

Iftekhar Hasan Thomas Krause Stefano Manfredonia Felix Noth

in: Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers, No. 14, 2022

Abstract

This paper shows that local banking market conditions affect mortality rates in the United States. Exploiting the staggered relaxation of branching restrictions in the 1990s across states, we find that banking deregulation decreases local mortality rates. This effect is driven by a decrease in the mortality rate of black residents, implying a decrease in the black-white mortality gap. We further analyze the role of mortgage markets as a transmitter between banking deregulation and mortality and show that households' easier access to finance explains mortality dynamics. We do not find any evidence that our results can be explained by improved labor outcomes.

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A Note on the Use of Syndicated Loan Data

Isabella Müller Felix Noth Lena Tonzer

in: IWH Discussion Papers, No. 17, 2022

Abstract

<p>Syndicated loan data provided by DealScan is an essential input in banking research. This data is rich enough to answer urging questions on bank lending, e.g., in the presence of financial shocks or climate change. However, many data options raise the question of how to choose the estimation sample. We employ a standard regression framework analyzing bank lending during the financial crisis of 2007/08 to study how conventional but varying usages of DealScan affect the estimates. The key finding is that the direction of coefficients remains relatively robust. However, statistical significance depends on the data and sampling choice and we provide guidelines for applied research.</p>

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