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Dr. Katja Heinisch

Dr. Katja Heinisch
Aktuelle Position

seit 1/13

Leiterin der Forschungsgruppe Ökonometrische Methoden für wirtschaftliche Prognosen und Simulationen

Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung Halle (IWH)

seit 9/09

Mitglied der Abteilung Makroökonomik

Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung Halle (IWH)

Forschungsschwerpunkte
  • internationale Makroökonomik
  • angewandte Zeitreihenökonometrie, insb. Kurzfristprognose
  • strukturelle makroökonometrische Modelle

Katja Heinisch ist seit September 2009 wissenschaftliche Mitarbeiterin in der Abteilung Makroökonomik. Zu ihren Forschungsschwerpunkten zählen insbesondere Kurzfristprognosen und die ökonometrische Modellierung gesamtwirtschaftlicher Zusammenhänge.

Katja Heinisch studierte an der Technischen Universität Chemnitz und der Universität Straßburg. Sie promovierte an der Universität Osnabrück. Während ihrer Dissertationszeit absolvierte Katja Heinisch Forschungsaufenthalte an der Europäischen Zentralbank (EZB) und beim Internationalen Währungsfonds (IWF).

Ihr Kontakt

Dr. Katja Heinisch
Dr. Katja Heinisch
- Abteilung Makroökonomik
Nachricht senden +49 345 7753-836 LinkedIn Profil

Publikationen

Zitationen
383

Neueste Publikationen

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Step by Step ‒ A Quarterly Evaluation of EU Commission's GDP Forecasts

Katja Heinisch

in: IWH Discussion Papers, Nr. 22, 2024

Abstract

<p>The European Commission’s growth forecasts play a crucial role in shaping policies and provide a benchmark for many (national) forecasters. The annual forecasts are built on quarterly estimates, which do not receive much attention and are hardly known. Therefore, this paper provides a comprehensive analysis of multi-period ahead quarterly GDP growth forecasts for the European Union (EU), euro area, and several EU member states with respect to first-release and current-release data. Forecast revisions and forecast errors are analyzed, and the results show that the forecasts are not systematically biased. However, GDP forecasts for several member states tend to be overestimated at short-time horizons. Furthermore, the final forecast revision in the current quarter is generally downward biased for almost all countries. Overall, the differences in mean forecast errors are minor when using real-time data or pseudo-real-time data and these differences do not significantly impact the overall assessment of the forecasts’ quality. Additionally, the forecast performance varies across countries, with smaller countries and Central and Eastern European countries (CEECs) experiencing larger forecast errors. The paper provides evidence that there is still potential for improvement in forecasting techniques both for nowcasts but also forecasts up to eight quarters ahead. In the latter case, the performance of the mean forecast tends to be superior for many countries.</p>

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IWH-Flash-Indikator III. und IV. Quartal 2024

Katja Heinisch Oliver Holtemöller Axel Lindner Birgit Schultz

in: IWH-Flash-Indikator, Nr. 3, 2024

Abstract

<p>Die deutsche Wirtschaft ist noch immer im Abschwung. Seit nunmehr zwei Jahren folgen abwechselnd minimale Zu- und Abnahmen von einem Quartal auf das nächste. Zuletzt nahm das Bruttoinlandsprodukt (BIP) im zweiten Quartal 2024 um 0,1% ab. Zuvor war es zwar um 0,2% gestiegen (vgl. Abbildung 1), aber auch dies reicht nicht aus, um die negative Produktionslücke zu verringern. Die Produktion in der Industrie und vor allem am Bau ist im zweiten Quartal spürbar gesunken. Auch im laufenden dritten Quartal ist die Stimmung der Unternehmen schlecht. Neben einer schwachen Nachfrage für Exportgüter gibt es eine Reihe von Gründen, warum ein Aufschwung noch nicht in Gang kommt: So wirken neben hohen Zinsen und Energiepreisen auch eine richtungslose Politik sowie eine Vielzahl geopolitischer Krisenherde investitionshemmend. Auch der nach wie vor hohe Krankenstand belastet die Wirtschaft. Alles in allem dürfte das Bruttoinlandsprodukt (BIP) laut IWH-Flash-Indikator im dritten Quartal 2024 um lediglich 0,2% steigen, was erneut keine konjunkturelle Trendwende bedeutet. Eine kräftigere Belebung könnte sich aufgrund steigender Realeinkommen am Jahresende einstellen.</p>

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Gesamtwirtschaftliche Effekte von Fußball-Meisterschaften: Die WM 2006 und die EM 2024 in Deutschland

Andrej Drygalla Katja Heinisch Oliver Holtemöller

in: Konjunktur aktuell, Nr. 2, 2024

Abstract

<p>Fußball-Welt- und Europameisterschaften sind große gesellschaftliche Ereignisse. Gesamtwirtschaftlich fallen sie in großen Volkswirtschaften mit bestehender Sport- und Verkehrsinfrastruktur und vorhandenen Kapazitäten im Gastgewerbe allerdings kaum ins Gewicht. In diesem Beitrag werden Studien zu den ökonomischen Effekten von Sportgroßveranstaltungen zusammengefasst, die wirtschaftlichen Effekte der Fußball-Weltmeisterschaft 2006 in Deutschland untersucht und daraus die zu erwartenden gesamtwirtschaftlichen Effekte der Fußball-Europameisterschaft 2024 in Deutschland abgeleitet. Die Bauaktivität in den Spielorten nimmt im Vorfeld der Meisterschaften zu; Effekte auf das Gastgewerbe gibt es hingegen kaum – vermutlich vor allem aufgrund von Verdrängungseffekten. Insgesamt war die gesamte nominale Bruttowertschöpfung im WM-Jahr 2006 in den Spielorten gut 1% höher als ohne die WM zu erwarten gewesen wäre; in realer Rechnung ist insgesamt kein signifikanter Effekt zu beobachten.</p>

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Referierte Publikationen

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Conditional Macroeconomic Survey Forecasts: Revisions and Errors

Alexander Glas Katja Heinisch

in: Journal of International Money and Finance, November 2023

Abstract

Using data from the European Central Bank's Survey of Professional Forecasters and ECB/Eurosystem staff projections, we analyze the role of ex-ante conditioning variables for macroeconomic forecasts. In particular, we test to which extent the updating and ex-post performance of predictions for inflation, real GDP growth and unemployment are related to beliefs about future oil prices, exchange rates, interest rates and wage growth. While oil price and exchange rate predictions are updated more frequently than macroeconomic forecasts, the opposite is true for interest rate and wage growth expectations. Beliefs about future inflation are closely associated with oil price expectations, whereas expected interest rates are related to predictions of output growth and unemployment. Exchange rate predictions also matter for macroeconomic forecasts, albeit less so than the other variables. With regard to forecast errors, wage growth and GDP growth closely comove, but only during the period when interest rates are at the effective zero lower bound.

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Evidence-based Support for Adaptation Policies in Emerging Economies

Maximilian Banning Anett Großmann Katja Heinisch Frank Hohmann Christian Lutz Christoph Schult

in: Low Carbon Economy, Nr. 1, 2023

Abstract

Climate change is increasingly evident, and the design of effective climate adaptation policies is important for regional and sectoral economic growth. We propose different modelling approaches to quantify the socio-economic impacts of climate change on three vulnerable countries (Kazakhstan, Georgia, and Vietnam) and design specific adaptations. We use a Dynamic General Equilibrium (DGE) model for Vietnam and an economy-energy-emission (E3) model for the other two countries. Our simulations until 2050 show that selected adaptation measures, in particular in the agricultural sector, have positive implications for GDP. However, some adaptation measures can even increase greenhouse gas emissions. Focusing on GDP alone can lead to welfare-reducing policy decisions.

Publikation lesen
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Power Generation and Structural Change: Quantifying Economic Effects of the Coal Phase-out in Germany

Katja Heinisch Oliver Holtemöller Christoph Schult

in: Energy Economics, 2021

Abstract

In the fight against global warming, the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions is a major objective. In particular, a decrease in electricity generation by coal could contribute to reducing CO2 emissions. We study potential economic consequences of a coal phase-out in Germany, using a multi-region dynamic general equilibrium model. Four regional phase-out scenarios before the end of 2040 are simulated. We find that the worst case phase-out scenario would lead to an increase in the aggregate unemployment rate by about 0.13 [0.09 minimum; 0.18 maximum] percentage points from 2020 to 2040. The effect on regional unemployment rates varies between 0.18 [0.13; 0.22] and 1.07 [1.00; 1.13] percentage points in the lignite regions. A faster coal phase-out can lead to a faster recovery. The coal phase-out leads to migration from German lignite regions to German non-lignite regions and reduces the labour force in the lignite regions by 10,100 [6300; 12,300] people by 2040. A coal phase-out until 2035 is not worse in terms of welfare, consumption and employment compared to a coal-exit until 2040.

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Arbeitspapiere

cover_DP_2024-22.jpg

Step by Step ‒ A Quarterly Evaluation of EU Commission's GDP Forecasts

Katja Heinisch

in: IWH Discussion Papers, Nr. 22, 2024

Abstract

<p>The European Commission’s growth forecasts play a crucial role in shaping policies and provide a benchmark for many (national) forecasters. The annual forecasts are built on quarterly estimates, which do not receive much attention and are hardly known. Therefore, this paper provides a comprehensive analysis of multi-period ahead quarterly GDP growth forecasts for the European Union (EU), euro area, and several EU member states with respect to first-release and current-release data. Forecast revisions and forecast errors are analyzed, and the results show that the forecasts are not systematically biased. However, GDP forecasts for several member states tend to be overestimated at short-time horizons. Furthermore, the final forecast revision in the current quarter is generally downward biased for almost all countries. Overall, the differences in mean forecast errors are minor when using real-time data or pseudo-real-time data and these differences do not significantly impact the overall assessment of the forecasts’ quality. Additionally, the forecast performance varies across countries, with smaller countries and Central and Eastern European countries (CEECs) experiencing larger forecast errors. The paper provides evidence that there is still potential for improvement in forecasting techniques both for nowcasts but also forecasts up to eight quarters ahead. In the latter case, the performance of the mean forecast tends to be superior for many countries.</p>

Publikation lesen
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Economic Sentiment: Disentangling Private Information from Public Knowledge

Katja Heinisch Axel Lindner

in: IWH Discussion Papers, Nr. 15, 2021

Abstract

This paper addresses a general problem with the use of surveys as source of information about the state of an economy: Answers to surveys are highly dependent on information that is publicly available, while only additional information that is not already publicly known has the potential to improve a professional forecast. We propose a simple procedure to disentangle the private information of agents from knowledge that is already publicly known for surveys that ask for general as well as for private prospects. Our results reveal the potential of our proposed technique for the usage of European Commissions‘ consumer surveys for economic forecasting for Germany.

Publikation lesen
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Conditional Macroeconomic Forecasts: Disagreement, Revisions and Forecast Errors

Alexander Glas Katja Heinisch

in: IWH Discussion Papers, Nr. 7, 2021

Abstract

Using data from the European Central Bank‘s Survey of Professional Forecasters, we analyse the role of ex-ante conditioning variables for macroeconomic forecasts. In particular, we test to which extent the heterogeneity, updating and ex-post performance of predictions for inflation, real GDP growth and the unemployment rate are related to assumptions about future oil prices, exchange rates, interest rates and wage growth. Our findings indicate that inflation forecasts are closely associated with oil price expectations, whereas expected interest rates are used primarily to predict output growth and unemployment. Expectations about exchange rates and wage growth also matter for macroeconomic forecasts, albeit less so than oil prices and interest rates. We show that survey participants can considerably improve forecast accuracy for macroeconomic outcomes by reducing prediction errors for external conditions. Our results contribute to a better understanding of the expectation formation process of experts.

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