Reports des European Forecasting Network (EFN)
Das European Forecasting Network (EFN) ist eine Gruppe von Konjunkturexperten von verschiedenen europäischen Forschungseinrichtungen (darunter EUI Florenz, Universidad Carlos III Madrid, Universitat de Barcelona, IWH).
Seit 2001 veröffentlicht das EFN regelmäßig (seit 2005 vierteljährlich) Konjunkturprognosen für den Euroraum.
EFN Report Autumn 2009: Economic Outlook for the Euro Area in 2009 and 2010
The world wide recovery will put an end to the recession in the euro area in the second half of 2009, but chances for a robust upswing for the year 2010 are slim. We expect GDP to fall around 4.0% in 2009, but a positive growth rate of 0.8% in 2010. However, as unemployment will continue to rise and fiscal policy in member countries with high budget deficits will become restrictive, private consumption is expected to decrease by -0.5% in 2010. Public consumption, public investment and exports will support aggregate demand. Industrial production has bottomed out in the second quarter of 2009. Nevertheless, industrial recovery will take time and average growth rates are expected to be just slightly positive in 2010 (1.1%). It is worth mentioning that this figure has improved significantly since our last report, as world trade has started to recover and some firms are restocking their inventories or reducing them at a slower rate than in the first half of the year. However, private investment will be declining well into next year, as capacity utilization is extremely low and the real costs of financing are not as attractive as interest rate figures appear to suggest.
EFN Report Summer 2009: Economic Outlook for the Euro Area in 2009 and 2010
The euro area is experiencing an unprecedented drop in economic activity in the first semester of 2009. Private consumption is expected to decrease by more than 1% compared with the same period a year earlier, investment by about 10%, and exports by 16%. The only support to aggregate demand comes from public consumption, which increases by 1.5%. We do not forecast any major improvement in the euro area economy for the rest of 2009. We expect a year on year decrease of 4.5% in the euro area Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for 2009, with a drop of 1.2% in private consumption, 9.4% in investment, and 14.9% in exports.
EFN Report Spring 2009: Economic Outlook for the Euro Area in 2009 and 2010
For much of 2009, falling external demand will be the main drag on production in the euro area, with exports expected to decrease by about 13% in 2009. At the same time, the structural problems of the financial sector, combined with the uncertainty on future economic perspectives, will continue to impede investment, which will be reduced by about 6% in 2009. Consumers will benefit from the increase in real wages that started in the summer of 2008 and will – due to the slow reaction of wage setting to the business cycle in most European countries – continue for the year 2009. Thus, private consumption will, albeit shrinking modestly (-0.6%) because of rising unemployment, be a stabilizing factor for the economy in the euro area. A positive contribution will also come from public consumption, whose growth is forecasted at 1% for 2009 and 0.5% for 2010.