Zuwanderungschancen ostdeutscher Regionen
Alexander Kubis, Lutz Schneider
Statistischer Quartalsbericht 4,
2008
Abstract
Die demographischen Projektionen für ostdeutsche Länder beschreiben für die kommenden Dekaden – bei aller regionalen Differenzierung – das Szenario einer erheblichen Schrumpfung und Alterung der Bevölkerung. Mit Blick auf die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung der Neuen Länder werden daraus dämpfende Einflüsse auf Produktivität und Innovationsfähigkeit sowie Engpässe bei der Fachkräfterekrutierung abgeleitet. Vor diesem Hintergrund ist die Frage nach der Attraktivität der östlichen Länder als Zuwanderungsregion von essenziellem Interesse. Dabei überdeckt die Debatte um die Wanderungsverluste Ostdeutschlands nicht selten die Tatsache, dass viele Regionen Ostdeutschlands auch erhebliche Zuzüge zu verzeichnen haben – nicht zuletzt aus Westdeutschland, auch wenn die Westzuwanderung in allen ostdeutschen Regionen – außer in Berlin – hinter der Abwanderung in die Alten Bundesländer zurückbleibt. Dennoch weisen zahlreiche ostdeutsche Regionen mittlerweile einen positiven Binnenwanderungssaldo aus, weil sie die Verluste gegenüber Westdeutschland durch Zuwanderung aus anderen ostdeutschen Regionen kompensieren können.
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Race to the Market: Can Standards Survive the Acceleration of Innovation and Product Life Cycles?
Ulrich Blum
Spatial Dispersed Production and Network Governance, Papers Presented at the 11th Uddevalla Symposium, 15 – 17. May 2008, Kyoto, Research Report 2008,
2008
Abstract
Plagiarism of emerging market countries has for a considerable time been seen as the main challenge to the western approach of codifying and securing intellectual property rights (IPRs). This neglects the fact that historically all countries which tried to converge to the level of successful economies copied technology. The discussion shadows our view that the more imminent question is whether the steady increase in competition intensity which shortens product life cycles and puts pressure on the invention and innovation system, provides enough time to patent and to standardize. As patent activity not only provides incentives for sinking costs into R&D but is also a first step in the dissemination of technologies, and as standards, especially formal standards, generate level playing fields in broad and reliable markets, this may be critical in the long run. Furthermore, the migration of technologies as a result of a steady reorganization of the spatial division of labor may lead to the adverse situation that countries harboring technologies do not have appropriate institutions for knowledge codification.
Exogenous factors that – at least in the short run – cannot be influenced by the standardization bodies are the level of cooperation among interested parties (and mutual trust and institutional linkage), the competitiveness of the technology, the ability to generate externalities by knowledge codification, and the productivity of the technologies. The most important single success factor that standardization bodies can influence is the speed with which a committee proceeds to timely publish formal standards. With reference to a game-theoretical model and based on data for 1997 and 2007 on published formal standards, we show that until now, standardization bodies seem to have successfully coped with the situation.
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Das bedingungslose Grundeinkommen und seine Finanzierung
Ingmar Kumpmann
cege-Report Februar 2008,
2008
Abstract
This is a reply to a contribution of Robert Schwager in the preceding cege-Report. The unconditional basic income is intended to reduce poverty. For its financing, some hitherto existing social benefits and tax privileges can be dropped. But the core of the financing problem is the effect of the basic income on the incentives in the economy.
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Performance of European countries in biotechnology - How does Europe compare to the USA?
Thomas Reiss, Iciar Dominguez Lacasa
International Journal of Biotechnology Vol. 10 (4),
2008
Abstract
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Growth, Volatility, and Credit Market Imperfections: Evidence from German Firms
Claudia M. Buch, Jörg Döpke
Journal of Economic Studies,
2008
Abstract
Purpose – The purpose of this paper is two-fold. First, it studies whether output volatility and growth are linked at the firm-level, using data for German firms. Second, it explores whether the link between volatility and growth depends on the degree of credit market imperfections.
Design/methodology/approach – The authors use a novel firm-level dataset provided by the Deutsche Bundesbank, the so-called Financial Statements Data Pool. The dataset has time series observations for German firms for the period 1997-2004, and the authors use information on the debt-to-assets or leverage ratio of firms to proxy for credit-constraints at the firm-level. As additional proxies for the importance of credit market imperfections, we use information on the size and on the legal status of firms.
Findings – The authors find that higher volatility has a negative impact on growth for small and a positive impact for larger firms. Higher leverage is associated with higher growth. At the same time, there is heterogeneity in the determinants of growth across firms from different sectors and across firms with a different legal status.
Practical implications – While most traditional macroeconomic models assume that growth and volatility are uncorrelated, a number of microeconomic models suggest that the two may be linked. However, it is unclear whether the link is positive or negative. The paper presents additional evidence regarding this question. Moreover, understanding whether credit market conditions affect the link between volatility and growth is of importance for policy makers since it suggests a channel through which the credit market can have long-run welfare implications. The results stress the importance of firm-level heterogeneity for the effects and effectiveness of economic policy measures.
Originality/value – The paper has two main novel features. First, it uses a novel firm-level dataset to analyze the determinants of firm-level growth. Second, it analyzes the growth-volatility nexus using firm-level data. To the best of the authors' knowledge, this is the first paper, which addresses the link between volatility, growth, and credit market imperfections using firm-level data.
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Exchange Rates and FDI: Goods versus Capital Market Frictions
Claudia M. Buch, J. Kleinert
World Economy,
forthcoming
Abstract
Changes in exchange rates affect countries through their impact on cross-border activities such as trade and foreign direct investment (FDI). With increasing activities of multinational firms, the FDI channel is likely to gain in importance. Economic theory provides two main explanations why changes in exchange rates can affect FDI. According to the first explanation, FDI reacts to exchange rate changes if there are information frictions on capital markets and if investment depends on firms’ net worth (capital market friction hypothesis). According to the second explanation, FDI reacts to exchange rate changes if output and factor markets are segmented, and if firm-specific assets are important (goods market friction hypothesis). We provide a unified theoretical framework of these two explanations. We analyse the implications of the model empirically using a dataset based on detailed German firm-level data. We find greater support for the goods market than for the capital market friction hypothesis.
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Do Weak Supervisory Systems Encourage Bank Risk-taking?
Claudia M. Buch, G. DeLong
Journal of Financial Stability,
2008
Abstract
Weak bank supervision could give banks the ability to shift risk from themselves to supervisors. We use cross-border bank mergers as a natural experiment to test changes in risk and the impact of supervision. We examine cross-border bank mergers and find that the supervisory structures of the partners’ countries influence changes in post-merger total risk. An acquirer from a country with strong supervision lowers total risk after a cross-border merger. However, total risk increases when the target bank is located in a country with relatively strong supervision. This result is consistent with strong host regulators limiting the risky activities of their local banks. Foreign-owned competitors could then engage in the risky projects, especially if the foreign banks’ supervisors are not strong. An acquirer entering a country with strong supervision appears to shift risk back to its home country. The results suggest that bank supervisors can reduce total banking risk in their countries by being strong.
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Bridging the biotechnology gap: policy experiences from the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary and Slovenia.
Iciar Dominguez Lacasa
International Journal of Biotechnology Vol. 10 (4),
2008
Abstract
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A note on GMM-estimation of probit models with endogenous regressors
Joachim Wilde
Statistical Papers,
No. 3,
2008
Abstract
Dagenais (1999) and Lucchetti (2002) have demonstrated that the naive GMM estimator of Grogger (1990) for the probit model with an endogenous regressor is not consistent. This paper completes their discussion by explaining the reason for the inconsistency and presenting a natural solution. Furthermore, the resulting GMM estimator is analyzed in a Monte-Carlo simulation and compared with alternative estimators.
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Wie wirkt die wirtschaftliche Betätigung der Städte auf die gesamte Wirtschaftsleistung
Peter Haug
Neue Grenzen städtischer Wirtschaftstätigkeit: Ausweitung versus Abbau?,
2009
Abstract
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