Changing Forces of Gravity: How the Crisis Affected International Banking
Claudia M. Buch, Katja Neugebauer, Christoph Schröder
ZEW Discussion Paper, No. 14-006,
2014
Abstract
The global financial crisis has brought to an end a rather unprecedented period of banks’ international expansion. We analyze the effects of the crisis on international banking. Using a detailed dataset on the international assets of all German banks with foreign affiliates for the years 2002-2011, we study bank internationalization before and during the crisis. Our data allow analyzing not only the international assets of the banks’ headquarters but also of their foreign affiliates. We show that banks have lowered their international assets, both along the extensive and the intensive margin. This withdrawal from foreign markets is the result of changing market conditions, of policy interventions, and of a weakly increasing sensitivity of banks to financial frictions.
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Musterknabe Osteuropa: Subventionskontrolle und staatliche Beihilfen
Jens Hölscher
Wirtschaftsdienst,
No. 5,
2014
Abstract
Ten years after the biggest enlargement in the history of the EU, the integration of the new member states is assessed positively. It is considered an economic success when looking at the income levels. However, due to overly optimistic assumptions and the crisis, economic integration and the catching-up process will take much longer for the new EU member states than originally expected. Moreover, new challenges are looming, especially as the Central and Eastern European accession countries adopt the euro. Smaller countries introduced the euro as quickly as possible, whereas larger countries have been much more hesitant, thinking twice not only because of several unsolved problems in the euro area but also because they use the exchange rate tool much more intensively. All new member states have to make sure they continue to increase their productivity and competitiveness. Findings suggest that after having entered the EU, the new eastern member states appear to have been developing rather stringent competition cultures. Bulgaria and Romania’s transition performance significantly differs from the pattern in the 2004 accession countries, both in terms of quantitative growth and institutional quality. These countries show that EU funds can be highly counter-productive since they help to conserve old structures.
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A Weighty Issue Revisited: The Dynamic Effect of Body Weight on Earnings and Satisfaction in Germany
Frieder Kropfhäußer, Marco Sunder
Applied Economics,
No. 41,
2015
Abstract
We estimate the relationship between changes in the body mass index (bmi) and wages or satisfaction, respectively, in a panel of German employees. In contrast to previous findings, our dynamic models indicate an inverse u-shaped association between bmi and wages. As the implied maximum occurs in the ‘overweight’ category, the positive trend in weight may not yet constitute a major limitation to productivity. Further investigation points out a stronger association among young workers and workers with jobs that are less protected. Work satisfaction of young workers is associated with bmi beyond the effect of earnings.
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The Share of Agriculture in Eastern Germany’s Economic Catching-up
Udo Ludwig
250 Jahre Leipziger Ökonomische Societät 1764 bis 2014. Vorträge zur Festveranstaltung. Mitteilungen Agrarwissenschaften 26,
2015
Abstract
The development of the East German agriculture is an example for the successful catching up in the economy. This sector maintained its economic advantages reached in the last twenty years whereas the east in total could not substantailly reduce its economic gap to the west of Germany.
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Cross-border Interbank Networks, Banking Risk and Contagion
Lena Tonzer
Journal of Financial Stability,
2015
Abstract
Recent events have highlighted the role of cross-border linkages between banking systems in transmitting local developments across national borders. This paper analyzes whether international linkages in interbank markets affect the stability of interconnected banking systems and channel financial distress within a network consisting of banking systems of the main advanced countries for the period 1994–2012. Methodologically, I use a spatial modeling approach to test for spillovers in cross-border interbank markets. The results suggest that foreign exposures in banking play a significant role in channeling banking risk: I find that countries that are linked through foreign borrowing or lending positions to more stable banking systems abroad are significantly affected by positive spillover effects. From a policy point of view, this implies that in stable times, linkages in the banking system can be beneficial, while they have to be taken with caution in times of financial turmoil affecting the whole system.
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Risk and Return - Is there an Unholy Cycle of Ratings and Yields?
Makram El-Shagi, Gregor von Schweinitz
Economics Letters,
2015
Abstract
After every major financial crisis, the question about the responsibility of the rating agencies resurfaces. Regarding government bonds, the most frequently voiced concern targeted “unreasonably” bad ratings that might trigger capital flights and increasing risk premia which sanction further rating downgrades. In this paper we develop a multivariate, nonparametric version of the Pesaran type cointegration model that allows for nonlinearities, to show that a unique equilibrium between ratings and sovereign yields exists. Therefore, we have to reject the concern that there is an unholy cycle leading to certain default in the long run.
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Vierteljährliche Konjunkturberichterstattung für das Land Sachsen-Anhalt - Die gesamtwirtschaftliche Lage im 3. Quartal 2014 -
Brigitte Loose, Hans-Ulrich Brautzsch, Franziska Exß
IWH Online,
No. 1,
2015
Abstract
Das Bruttoinlandsprodukt in Sachsen-Anhalt hat nach indikatorgestützten Schätzungen im dritten Quartal 2014 in etwa stagniert, nachdem es in den beiden ersten Quartalen zu einem kräftigen Auf und Ab gekommen war. Dem wegen des ungewöhnlich milden Winterwetters überzeichneten Produktionsanstieg im ersten Quartal war erwartungsgemäß eine Korrektur im Sommerhalbjahr gefolgt, die sich auch in Deutschland zeigte. Allerdings ist die Rückbildung kräftiger ausgefallen als in Deutschland. Neben dem witterungsbedingten Effekt hat sich in Sachsen-Anhalt ein technischer Sondereffekt niedergeschlagen: Im umsatzstärksten Industriezweig, der Mineralölverarbeitung, ist es aufgrund von Wartungsarbeiten zu einem planmäßigen Produktionsausfall im zweiten Quartal gekommen, der im Folgequartal noch nicht vollständig aufgearbeitet werden konnte. Gleichzeitig hatte die deutsche Wirtschaft im Sommerhalbjahr vor dem Hintergrund der nur schleppenden weltwirtschaftlichen Erholung und zunehmender geopolitischer Risiken vor allem im Zusammenhang mit dem russisch-ukrainischen Konflikt deutlich an Schwung verloren. Dies hat sich auch in Sachsen-Anhalt niedergeschlagen. Die konjunkturbedingten Rückgänge ziehen sich durch alle Wirtschaftsbereiche. Generell nimmt die Wertschöpfung demographisch bedingt in den Bereichen, die absatzseitig stark von den privaten Haushalten abhängen wie das Baugewerbe und der Handel, langsamer zu als in Westdeutschland. Aus gleichen Gründen unterliegen die öffentlichen Dienstleister einem scharfen Konsolidierungskurs.
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Zur Schlüsselfunktion des Baugewerbes beim Aufbau Ost
Udo Ludwig, Brigitte Loose
25 Jahre Bauindustrie in Ostdeutschland,
2015
Abstract
Das Baugewerbe in den neuen Bundesländern spielte seit seiner Neugründung im vereinten Deutschland eine Schlüsselrolle bei der Modernisierung der ostdeutschen Wirtschaft und hat sich nach Höhen und Tiefen zu einem weitgehend selbstbestimmten, wettbewerbsfähigen Produktionssektor entwickelt.
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Spatial Development in View of the Re-structuring of Public Administrations – What are the Implications of the Individual Contributions?
Martin T. W. Rosenfeld, M. Gather
Gebiets- und Verwaltungsstrukturen im Umbruch: Beiträge zur Reformdiskussion aus Erfahrungen in Sachsen, Sachsen-Anhalt und Thüringen,
No. 360,
2015
Abstract
It must be clear that any kind of appraisal drawn from the results of the individual papers can only be an interim one. Many of the issues raised in the pertinent field of investigation could only be touched upon without being sufficiently debated. In other cases the results of the papers show that further and more thorough investigations are urgently required. It may be stated that public administration structures are basically in a state of constant change, and must repeatedly be adapted to changing economic and social framework conditions. In terms of legal boundaries to territorial restructuring, it should be noted that the size of a municipality may not be permitted to obstruct either the political participation of citizens or the possibility of the municipal decision-makers being sufficiently well-informed.
The overall picture furthermore suggests that reforms in the public sector sphere that are initiated by state actors (i.e. top down) are always extremely complicated affairs.
The objective of the regional working group of the Academy of Spatial Research and Planning (ARL) for the states Sachsen, Sachsen-Anhalt and Thüringen was to highlight some of the most significant aspects of the process of municipal re-structuring and its effects on spatial development, considering these in the three states against the background of current discussions and reform measures.
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Coordination between Municipalities and Local Non-Municipal Public Units (NMPUs) for Supporting Urban Economic Development: Theoretical Analysis and Empirical Evidence for the Example of Universities in Germany
Martin T. W. Rosenfeld, J. Hinz
Koordination raumwirksamer Politik: Mehr Effizienz und Wirksamkeit von Politik durch abgestimmte Arbeitsteilung,
2015
Abstract
In many European cities, policymakers are trying to change the local paths of economic development to head in new directions, e.g. by trying to become a location for Non-Municipal Public Units (NMPUs), like federal special agencies, state museums, military bases, universities or publicly funded research institutes. But as the competencies for such local NMPUs are allocated to higher levels of government, the municipal level has no direct formal institutional responsibilities for influencing their location. Once a NMPU has chosen a certain location, support from the municipality may, however, stabilize the NMPU. There are some categories of NMPUs that should have considerable interest in local conditions, as determined by the municipal level. This paper first theoretically categorizes NMPUs with regard to their importance for the urban economy, with regard to the importance of local conditions for the performance of NMPUs and with regard to their degree of fiscal autonomy. It is shown that universities are one example of NMPUs where the relevance of coordinating activities with the municipalities is fairly high. The benefits of universities for local economic development have often been discussed. From the point of view of universities, their capacity to attract human capital depends on factors which may be influenced by the municipalities. This means that there is a reciprocal relationship between municipalities and universities; coordination by cooperation between the partners could be useful for both – but in practice there is often a lack of cooperation. Information policy is one relevant field for coordination: the city should highlight publicly the advantages of local universities; the universities should highlight the advantages of their city. As information policy is a field for which empirical data is available, the empirical part of the paper presents results from an analysis based on the internet presentations of selected cities and universities. It is shown that in most cities the level of coordination in this field is so far quite low. One possible way to achieve a higher degree of coordination could be to introduce fiscal incentives for cities.
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