13.04.2022 • 9/2022
Economy in East Germany will not suffer more from the war in Ukraine than in Germany as a whole – Implications of the Joint Economic Forecast Spring 2022 and new data for the East German economy
The recovery of the East German economy, like that of Germany as a whole, will weaken considerably due to Russia’s war in Ukraine. However, the economic slump and recovery were not as pronounced as in West Germany. In 2021, East German output grew by 2.3%, less than in Germany as a whole (2.9%). According to the Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), GDP growth in East Germany is also likely to be lower than in Germany as a whole in 2022 (2.1% in East Germany vs. 2.7% in Germany) and 2023 (2.5% vs. 3.1%).
Oliver Holtemöller
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Energiekrise: Inflation, Rezession, Wohlstandsverlust
Dienstleistungsauftrag des Bundesministeriums für Wirtschaft und Klimaschutz,
No. 2,
2022
Abstract
Die krisenhafte Zuspitzung auf den Gasmärkten belastet die deutsche Wirtschaft schwer. Durch die reduzierten Gaslieferungen aus Russland ist ein erheblicher Teil des Angebots weggefallen und auch das Risiko gestiegen, dass die verbleibenden Liefer- und Speichermengen im Winter nicht ausreichen, um die Nachfrage zu decken. Die Gaspreise sind in den Sommermonaten in die Höhe geschossen, und auch auf den Terminmärkten zeigen sich für einen längeren Zeitraum deutlich höhere Notierungen. Die dadurch stark steigenden Verbraucherpreise schmälern insbesondere die Kaufkraft der privaten Haushalte. Die Wirtschaftsleistung dürfte im dritten Quartal bereits leicht gesunken sein. Im Winterhalbjahr ist ein deutlicher Rückgang zu erwarten. Dass dieser nicht noch kräftiger ausfällt, ist dem hohen Auftragspolster im Verarbeitenden Gewerbe zu verdanken. Insgesamt dürfte die Produktion in diesem Jahr trotz des Rückgangs in der zweiten Jahreshälfte um 1,4% ausgeweitet werden. Damit halbieren die Institute ihre Prognose vom Frühjahr für dieses Jahr annähernd. Für das kommende Jahr ist zu erwarten, dass das Bruttoinlandsprodukt im Jahresdurchschnitt um 0,4% zurückgeht. Im Frühjahr erwarteten die Institute noch einen Anstieg von 3,1%. In dieser Revision zeigt sich das Ausmaß der Energiekrise. Im Jahr 2024 expandiert das Bruttoinlandsprodukt im Jahresdurchschnitt mit 1,9%. Die Inflationsrate dürfte sich in den kommenden Monaten weiter erhöhen. Jahresdurchschnittlich ergibt sich für das Jahr 2023 mit 8,8% eine Teuerungsrate, die leicht über dem Wert des laufenden Jahres (8,4%) liegt. Erst im Jahr 2024 wird die 2%-Marke allmählich wieder erreicht.
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Regulation and Taxation: A Complementarity
Benjamin Schoefer
Journal of Comparative Economics,
No. 4,
2010
Abstract
I show how quantity regulation can lower elasticities and thereby increase optimal tax rates. Such regulation imposes regulatory incentives for particular choice quantities. Their strength varies between zero (laissez faire) and infinite (command economy). In the latter case, regulation effectively eliminates any intensive behavioral responses to taxes; a previously distortionary tax becomes a lump sum. For intermediate regulation (where some deviation is feasible), intensive behavioral responses are still weaker than under zero regulation, and so quantity regulation reduces elasticities, thereby facilitating subsequent taxation. I apply this mechanism to labor supply and present correlational evidence for this complementarity: hours worked in high-regulation countries are compressed, and these countries tax labor at higher rates.
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Payroll Taxes, Firm Behavior, and Rent Sharing: Evidence from a Young Workers' Tax Cut in Sweden
Emmanuel Saez, Benjamin Schoefer, David Seim
American Economic Review,
No. 5,
2019
Abstract
This paper uses administrative data to analyze a large employer-borne payroll tax rate cut for young workers in Sweden. We find no effect on net-of-tax wages of young treated workers relative to slightly older untreated workers, and a 2–3 percentage point increase in youth employment. Firms employing many young workers receive a larger tax windfall and expand right after the reform: employment, capital, sales, and profits increase. These effects appear stronger in credit-constrained firms. Youth-intensive firms also increase the wages of all their workers collectively, young as well as old, consistent with rent sharing of the tax windfall.
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Jobs and Matches: Quits, Replacement Hiring, and Vacancy Chains
Yusuf Mercan, Benjamin Schoefer
American Economic Review: Insights,
No. 1,
2020
Abstract
In the canonical DMP model of job openings, all job openings stem from new job creation. Jobs denote worker-firm matches, which are destroyed following worker quits. Yet, employers classify 56 percent of vacancies as quit-driven replacement hiring into old jobs, which evidently outlived their previous matches. Accordingly, aggregate and firm-level hiring tightly track quits. We augment the DMP model with longer-lived jobs arising from sunk job creation costs and replacement hiring. Quits trigger vacancies, which beget vacancies through replacement hiring. This vacancy chain can raise total job openings and net employment. The procyclicality of quits can thereby amplify business cycles.
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Cross-country Evidence on the Relationship between Regulations and the Development of the Life Insurance Sector
Chrysovalantis Gaganis, Iftekhar Hasan, Fotios Pasiouras
Economic Modelling,
July
2020
Abstract
Using a global sample, this study sketches the impact of insurance regulations on the life insurance sector, revealing a significant negative association between supervisory control on policy conditions of life annuities as well as pension products and the development of the industry. A similar inverse relation is observed between the index of capital requirements and insurance development. These results hold when we control for demographic factors, economic factors, religious inclination, culture, as well as for other relevant regulations. We also find some evidence that while the overall supervisory power does not matter, the ability to intervene at an early stage could have a positive effect on insurance development. Additionally, the impact of some regulations appears to differ between advanced and developing countries.
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Military Directors, Governance and Firm Behavior
Chen Cai, Iftekhar Hasan, Yinjie (Victor) Shen, Shuai Wang
Advances in Accounting,
December
2021
Abstract
We build a large dataset of board of directors with military experience and document a substantial and persistent presence of independent military directors serving on corporate boards. We find that firms with independent military directors are associated with better monitoring outcomes, including less excessive CEO compensation, greater forced CEO turnover–performance sensitivity, and less earnings management.
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28.06.2022 • 15/2022
Gefahr einer Gaslücke gegenüber April deutlich verringert – aber Versorgungsrisiken bleiben
Die Wahrscheinlichkeit einer Versorgungslücke mit Erdgas im Fall eines Stopps russischer Lieferungen ist gegenüber April deutlich gesunken. Zu diesem Ergebnis kommt eine aktualisierte Simulationsrechnung der an der Gemeinschaftsdiagnose beteiligten Institute. Trotz mittlerweile deutlich besser gefüllter Speicher sind damit aber noch nicht alle Risiken für die Gasversorgung der Industrie im Winterhalbjahr 2022/2023 gebannt. Es ist daher ratsam, zeitnah die Preissignale bei den Verbrauchern ankommen zu lassen.
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