19.01.2016 • 3/2016
IWH-Industrieumfrage im vierten Quartal 2015: Gute Stimmung bei den Unternehmen hält an
Das Geschäftsklima im Verarbeitenden Gewerbe Ostdeutschlands hat sich zum Jahresende 2015 weiter erwärmt, wie die Ergebnisse der IWH-Industrieumfrage unter rund 300 Unternehmen zeigen. Die Lage wird per saldo drei Punkte besser als im Vorquartal bewertet, und der Saldo aus positiven und negativen Meldungen über die Geschäftsaussichten steigt um vier Punkte (vgl. Abbildung 1 und Tabelle).
Cornelia Lang
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The Restructuring of the Agricultural Sector in Eastern Germany
Udo Ludwig
Schneider, Jürgen (Hrsg.): Einigkeit, Recht und Freiheit. 25 Jahre deutsche Wiedervereinigung (1990-2015). Eine ordnungs-theoretische Analyse, Beiträge zur Wirtschafts- und Sozialgeschichte. Band 132.3, Stuttgart,
2017
Abstract
The paper deals with the restructuring of the East German agricultural sector. In terms of macroeconomic indicators it shows how the sector was able to successfully catching up in the economy. It finds that the restructured agricultural enterprises benefit from the modernization of their capital stocks and the economies of scale in the production of plants on large areas. As a result they outdo their competitors in Western Germany in terms of unit labor costs and per capita output.
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The Restructuring of the East German Economy
Udo Ludwig
Schneider, Jürgen (Hrsg.): Einigkeit, Recht und Freiheit. 25 Jahre deutsche Wiedervereinigung (1990-2015). Eine ordnungs-theoretische Analyse, Beiträge zur Wirtschafts- und Sozialgeschichte. Band 132.3, Stuttgart,
2017
Abstract
The paper investigates the institutional tasks and the real economic results of the restructuring of the former centrally planned East German economy from 1990 until 2015. The focus is put on the privatization of the factories, the modernization of the production capacities and the development of competitive enterprises. It shows the reasons for unbalances between production and demand as well as between resources and use of public finance. Moreover structural deficiencies of catching up are discussed.
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The Macroeconomic Development of the GDR until 1989
Udo Ludwig
Schneider, Jürgen (Hrsg.): Die Ursachen für den Zusammenbruch der Sowjetunion und der DDR (1945-1990). Eine ordnungstheoretische Analyse, Beiträge zur Wirtschafts- u. Sozialgeschichte. Band 132.2. Stuttgart,
2017
Abstract
The paper analyzes the crucial events and political strategies driving the economic history of the former GDR. Applying the growth accounting model I estimate the impact of labor and capital inputs as wells as of the technological progress on GDP growth in different time periods. The main finding is the dominant role of total factor productivity in economic growth only during the economic reforms in the second halve of the 60ies.
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Direct and Indirect Risk-taking Incentives of Inside Debt
Stefano Colonnello, Giuliano Curatola, Ngoc Giang Hoang
Journal of Corporate Finance,
August
2017
Abstract
We develop a model of compensation structure and asset risk choice, where a risk-averse manager is compensated with salary, equity and inside debt. We seek to understand the joint implications of this compensation package for managerial risk-taking incentives and credit spreads. We show that the size and seniority of inside debt not only are crucial for the relation between inside debt and credit spreads but also play an important role in shaping the relation between equity compensation and credit spreads. Using a sample of U.S. public firms with traded credit default swap contracts, we provide evidence supportive of the model's predictions.
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International Banking and Cross-border Effects of Regulation: Lessons from Germany
Jana Ohls, Markus Pramor, Lena Tonzer
International Journal of Central Banking,
Supplement 1, March
2017
Abstract
We analyze the inward and outward transmission of regulatory changes through German banks’ (international) loan portfolio. Overall, our results provide evidence for international spillovers of prudential instruments. These spillovers are, however, quite heterogeneous between types of banks and can only be observed for some instruments. For instance, domestic affiliates of foreign-owned global banks reduce their loan growth to the German economy in response to a tightening of sector-specific capital buffers, local reserve requirements, and loan-to-value ratios in their home country. Furthermore, from the point of view of foreign countries, tightening reserve requirements is effective in reducing lending inflows from German banks. Finally, we find that business and financial cycles matter for lending decisions.
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Debt Brake Will Intensify Bracket Creep Problem
Martin Altemeyer-Bartscher, Götz Zeddies
Wirtschaftsdienst,
No. 2,
2017
Abstract
As taxpayers typically pay relatively little attention to low levels of inflation induced income tax bracket creep, policy makers tend to regularly postpone correction of this problem. Eventually, however, the fiscal illusion fades away, and political pressure for tax relief arises once the cumulative increase of the average tax rate exceeds a critical threshold. Using Germany as an example, it is shown that bracket creep can provoke revenue cycles in public budgets that hinder governments’ compliance with the numerical budget rules. An indexation of the tax tariff, which would provide an automatic correction for bracket creep, could prevent such fluctuations and thus provide a favourable framework for the debt brake.
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How Do Insured Deposits Affect Bank Risk? Evidence from the 2008 Emergency Economic Stabilization Act
Claudia Lambert, Felix Noth, Ulrich Schüwer
Journal of Financial Intermediation,
January
2017
Abstract
This paper tests whether an increase in insured deposits causes banks to become more risky. We use variation introduced by the U.S. Emergency Economic Stabilization Act in October 2008, which increased the deposit insurance coverage from $100,000 to $250,000 per depositor and bank. For some banks, the amount of insured deposits increased significantly; for others, it was a minor change. Our analysis shows that the more affected banks increase their investments in risky commercial real estate loans and become more risky relative to unaffected banks following the change. This effect is most distinct for affected banks that are low capitalized.
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Central Bank Transparency and the Volatility of Exchange Rates
Stefan Eichler, Helge Littke
Abstract
We analyze the effect of monetary policy transparency on bilateral exchange rate volatility. We test the theoretical predictions of a stylized model using panel data for 62 currencies from 1998 to 2010. We find strong empirical evidence that an increase in the availability of information about monetary policy objectives decreases exchange rate volatility. Using interaction models, we find that this effect is more pronounced for countries with a lower flexibility of goods prices, a lower level of central bank conservatism, and a higher interest rate sensitivity of money demand.
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