In Germany, measures to contain the coronavirus were relaxed in some areas in early March; for example, restrictions on private and public gatherings were eased, and retail stores are increasingly able to receive customers again. The aim is to allow for a resurgence in economic mobility and personal contact between people. However, the frequency of contact is a major factor influencing the rate of spread of coronavirus, especially since the relaxations have not yet been accompanied by a systematic testing strategy; and vaccination progress has also so far fallen short of expectations.

Estimates based on a model of the relationship between containment measures (Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker, Stringency Index), economic mobility (Google Mobility Data), new corona infections, and deaths (World Health Organization) with data from 44 countries suggest that recent relaxations increase economic mobility by more than ten percentage points and the number of new infections and deaths in Germany by 25%. Oliver Holtemöller, head of the Department Macroeconomics and vice president at the IWH, and co-author Malte Rieth, Martin Luther University Halle-Wittenberg and German Institute for Economic Research (DIW Berlin), simulate a counterfactual scenario without the early March relaxations. They contrast this with a scenario in which the Stringency Index falls by 5%, which is similar to its fall in early March. The figure shows the difference between these two scenarios.