Business Cylce Effects of the 2014 Oil Price Slump
Wirtschaftskammer Österreich: Wirtschaftspolitische Blätter,
The price for crude oil has dropped remarkably since the middle of the year 2014. Business cycle effects of oil price changes depend on whether these are caused by demand or supply side factors. In the present paper, the decrease in oil prices since the middle of the year 2014 is decomposed into demand side and oil-market specific factors. Subsequently, the contribution of the decline in oil prices to the economic development since the third quarter of 2014 and the expected effects until the end of the year 2016 are analyzed using the international business cycle model of the Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH). The analysis considers both, oil-exporting countries (Russia) as well as oil-importing economies (G7 countries and Austria). Economic activity is stimulated strongest in the United States and Japan, whereas it is remarkably curbed in Russia.