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The Identification of Regional Industrial Clusters Using Qualitative Input-Output Analysis
Mirko Titze, Matthias Brachert, Alexander Kubis
IWH Discussion Papers, No. 13, 2008
Abstract
The ‘cluster theory’ has become one of the main concepts promoting regional competitiveness, innovation, and growth. As most studies focus on measures of concentration of one industrial branch in order to identify regional clusters, the appropriate analysis of specific vertical relations within a value-adding chain is developing in this discussion. This paper tries to identify interrelated sectors via national input-output tables with the help of Minimal Flow Analysis by Schnabl (1994). The regionalization of these national industry templates is carried out with the allocation of branch-specific production values on regional employment. As a result, the paper shows concentrations of vertical clusters in only 27 of 439 German NUTS-3 regions.
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Rents and Quality of Life in Eastern Germany
Dominik Weiß
IWH Discussion Papers, No. 12, 2008
Abstract
The rent levels between East- and Westgermany differ less than one Euro on average. This difference seems very slow regarding the persistant economic disparities and high vacancy rates in East-Germany. Based on the assumtion, that income and life quality aspects have an impact on the local rent level a set of variables is regressed on the rent of several housing quality segments in a cross-section analysis at the community-level. The regression contains demographic, economic and housing-market-related variables and a dummy variable for east germany. It incorporates hypotheses about a special supplier structure and several market interventions that are related to the transformation process from socialistic into market economic structures after the reunification in the 1990s. The results show a significant positive coeficiant for the east german dummy in two segments of the housing stock. Further Research about the reasons for the extra charge are important, because theese findings may be responsible for the continous out migration from East Germany.
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Stages of the Ongoing Global Financial Crisis: Is There a Wandering Asset Bubble?
Lucjan T. Orlowski
IWH Discussion Papers, No. 11, 2008
Abstract
This study argues that the severity of the current global financial crisis is strongly influenced by changeable allocations of the global savings. This process is named a “wandering asset bubble”. Since its original outbreak induced by the demise of the subprime mortgage market and the mortgage-backed securities in the U.S., this crisis has reverberated across other credit areas, structured financial products and global financial institutions. Four distinctive stages of the crisis are identified: the meltdown of the subprime mortgage market, spillovers into broader credit market, the liquidity crisis epitomized by the fallout of Bear Sterns with some contagion effects on other financial institutions, and the commodity price bubble. Monetary policy responses aimed at stabilizing financial markets are proposed.
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Evaluating the German (New Keynesian) Phillips Curve
Rolf Scheufele
IWH Discussion Papers, No. 10, 2008
Abstract
This paper evaluates the New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) and its hybrid variant within a limited information framework for Germany. The main interest rests on the average frequency of price re-optimization of firms. We use the labor income share as the driving variable and consider a source of real rigidity by allowing for a fixed firm-specific capital stock. A GMM estimation strategy is employed as well as an identification robust method that is based upon the Anderson-Rubin statistic. We find out that the German Phillips Curve is purely forward looking. Moreover, our point estimates are consistent with the view that firms re-optimize prices every two to three quarters. While these estimates seem plausible from an economic point of view, the uncertainties around these estimates are very large and also consistent with perfect nominal price rigidity where firms never re-optimize prices. This analysis also offers some explanations why previous results for the German NKPC based on GMM differ considerably. First, standard GMM results are very sensitive to the way how orthogonality conditions are formulated. Additionally, model misspecifications may be left undetected by conventional J tests. Taken together, this analysis points out the need for identification robust methods to get reliable estimates for the NKPC.
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Das makroökonometrische Modell des IWH: Eine angebotsseitige Betrachtung
Rolf Scheufele
IWH Discussion Papers, No. 9, 2008
Abstract
This paper describes the IWH macroeconometric model, a quarterly structural model for the German Economy. It focuses on the specification and estimation on supply-side aspects of the model. This approach guarantees a theoretical derived long-run model equilibrium. It combines short-run forecasting requirements with a long-run theoretical foundation. For some macroeconomic aggregates short- and long-run effects of supply- and demand shocks are illustrated. Additionally, effects of external shocks are investigated through model simulations to illustrate aggregate model characteristics.
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Evaluating communication strategies for public agencies: transparency, opacity, and secrecy
Axel Lindner
IWH Discussion Papers, No. 8, 2008
Abstract
This paper analyses in a simple global games framework welfare effects stemming from different communication strategies of public agencies if strategies of agents are complementary to each other: communication can either be fully transparent, or the agency opaquely publishes only its overall assessment of the economy, or it keeps information completely secret. It is shown that private agents put more weight to their private information in the transparent case than in case of opacity. Thus, in many cases, the appropriate measure against overreliance on public information is giving more details to the public instead of denying access to public information.
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Technologie- und Gründerzentren im Lichte von Diversifizierung versus Spezialisierung
Michael Schwartz, Christoph Hornych
IWH Discussion Papers, No. 7, 2008
Abstract
In Germany, a growing tendency can be observed to focus business incubators (BIs) and technology centers and their respective support elements and processes as well as the selection criteria applied by the incubator management on firms from solely one sector or few but complementary sectors and their specific needs and requirements. These are called specialized business incubators (SBIs). Despite the increasing importance of specialization strategies of business incubators as local and regional policy instruments, there are no reliable empirical examinations of the specifics, and advantages in particular, of SBIs compared to more diversified BIs. On the basis of survey-data, that comprises responses from 161 actual firms incubated in 13 diversified BIs and 13 specialized BIs in Germany, this study investigates the mechanisms within the specific context of specialized BIs and their value-added contribution versus the more diversified incubation model. For the first time, this study provides large-scale empirical evidence concerning the effects of adopting a specialization strategy in the context of business incubation.
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Preventing Innovative Cooperations: The Legal Exemptions Unintended Side Effect
Christian Growitsch, Nicole Nulsch, Margarethe Rammerstorfer
IWH Discussion Papers, No. 6, 2008
Abstract
In 2004, European competition law had been faced with considerable changes due to the introduction of the new Council Regulation No. 1/2003. One of the major renewals was the replacement of the centralized notification system for inter-company cooperations in favor of a so-called legal exemption system. We analyze the implications of this reform on the agreements firms implement. In contrast to previous research we focus on the reform’s impact on especially welfare enhancing, namely innovative agreements. We show that the law’s intention to reduce the incentive to establish illegal cartels will be reached. However, by the same mechanism, also highly innovative cooperations might be prevented. To avoid this unintended effect, we conclude that only fines but not the monitoring activities should be increased in order to deter illegal but not innovative agreements.
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Forecasting the CO2 certificate price risk
Henry Dannenberg, Wilfried Ehrenfeld
IWH Discussion Papers, No. 5, 2008
Abstract
Modeling the price risk of CO2 certificates is one important aspect of integral corporate risk management related to emissions trading. The paper presents a risk model which may be the basis for evaluating the risk of emission certificate prices. We assume that the certificate price is determined by the expected marginal CO2 abatement costs prevailing at the current trade period and stochastically fluctuates around the respective level as returned from the mean reversion process. Due to uncertainties about future environmental states we suppose that within one trade period, erratic changes in the expected marginal abatement costs may occur leading to shifts in the price level. The aim of the work is to model the erratic changes of the expected reversion level and to estimate the parameters of the mean reversion process.
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Foreign Subsidiaries in the East German Innovation System – Evidence from Manufacturing Industries
Jutta Günther, Björn Jindra, Johannes Stephan
IWH Discussion Papers, No. 4, 2008
Abstract
This paper analyses the extent of technological capability of foreign subsidiaries located in East Germany, and looks at the determinants of foreign subsidiaries’ technological sourcing behaviour. The theory of international production underlines the importance of strategic and regional level variables. However, existing empirical approaches omit by and large regional level factors. We employ survey evidence from the “FDI micro data- base” of the IWH, that was only recently made available, to conduct our analyses. We find that foreign subsidiaries are above average technologically active in comparison to the whole East German manufacturing. This can be partially explained by the industrial structure of foreign direct investment. However, only a limited share of foreign subsidiaries with R&D and/or innovation activity source technological knowledge from the East German innovation system. If a subsidiary follows a competence augmenting strategy or does local trade, it is more likely to source technological knowledge locally. The endowment of a region with human capital and a scientific infrastructure has a positive effect too. The findings suggest that foreign subsidiaries in East Germany are only partially linked with the regional innovation system. Policy implications are discussed.
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